Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Florence, AL
May 17, 2024 7:56 PM CDT (00:56 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:43 AM Sunset 7:50 PM Moonrise 2:30 PM Moonset 2:44 AM |
Area Discussion for - Huntsville, AL
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KHUN 172209 AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 509 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Tonight)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Light rain has continued to shift north and east this afternoon, resulting in a mostly dry radar except for a few areas in southern middle TN. Expect this trend to continue thanks to a blanket of convection closer to the Gulf Coast that has helped block us from better moisture return. With the stronger forcing to our south, believe much of the overnight period will be dry until around sunrise when forcing increases along an upper level shortwave. Will keep a 20-30% chance for showers and a low chance for thunderstorms in through 7am, but believe the main concern overnight will be whether or not fog is able to develop. Hi-res guidance has been pretty persistent in showing mostly cloudy skies overnight, but light winds and wet grounds will support at least patchy fog development. Will continue to monitor this into the overnight hours. Otherwise, overnight lows will drop to the low to mid 60s.
SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Shower/storm chances will be highest during the day on Saturday as the upper trough axis pivots across the local area. SPC has placed the entire area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for strong to severe storms on Saturday, mainly in the afternoon. There may be a few hours where there is a favorable overlap between instability and shear, although the best shear will be displaced to our south.
Marginally severe wind and hail will be the primary concern with these storms with CAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, but still a low confidence forecast depending on the nature of convection father to our south that could block us from better moisture advection, much like today. Something to be aware of, especially if spending time outdoors. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 70s/lower 80s with light westerly/northwesterly winds.
This activity should come to an end from west to east tomorrow night. Dense fog may become a threat once again tomorrow night with light winds and clearing skies. Upper ridging will settle over the local area for the remainder of the short term forecast, resulting in dry and warm conditions. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s Sunday and Monday with overnight lows in the lower 60s.
LONG TERM
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Dry and warm conditions will continue into Tuesday, and thanks to a flow rounding a surface ridge along the east coast. After a mild night with lows in the lower 60s, highs on Monday should rise into the mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. This trend should continue on Tuesday with highs nearing 90 degrees in a few places. Lows in the mid 60s Mon night should range in the upper 60s to near 70 Tue night.
A storm system forecast to form over the Rockies and adjacent High Plains over the weekend will head to the NE, reaching the Great Lakes on Wednesday. A cold front trailing south of it will move across the area on Wed. Moisture convergence and lift preceding it will return medium chances (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms beginning Tue night. Unsettled weather with scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast into Thursday. Overall storm strength should remain "general" with a risk of strong outflow wind gusts, heavy downpours, and sudden and/or frequent lightning.
Even with more clouds and rain chances, high temperatures on Wed/Thu should range in the mid/upper 80s, and lows in the 60s.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Ceilings will remain below 030agl (MVFR) over most areas through 05-06Z before lowering below 010agl (IFR), and in some areas below 005agl (LIFR), along with scattered -SHRA or DZ at times. The lowest ceilings are most likely to occur in northwest AL including KMSL, but has a medium chance at KHSV so future amendments are possible. Ceilings are forecast to lift to or above 030agl (IFR)
by 17-19Z. Daytime heating and an approaching upper level system will produce scattered to numerous SHRA and TSRA. A few +SHRA or +TSRA are possible, with small hail and gusty winds. Have included VCTS at this time as timing is uncertain at either TAF location.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 509 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
New AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(Tonight)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Light rain has continued to shift north and east this afternoon, resulting in a mostly dry radar except for a few areas in southern middle TN. Expect this trend to continue thanks to a blanket of convection closer to the Gulf Coast that has helped block us from better moisture return. With the stronger forcing to our south, believe much of the overnight period will be dry until around sunrise when forcing increases along an upper level shortwave. Will keep a 20-30% chance for showers and a low chance for thunderstorms in through 7am, but believe the main concern overnight will be whether or not fog is able to develop. Hi-res guidance has been pretty persistent in showing mostly cloudy skies overnight, but light winds and wet grounds will support at least patchy fog development. Will continue to monitor this into the overnight hours. Otherwise, overnight lows will drop to the low to mid 60s.
SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Shower/storm chances will be highest during the day on Saturday as the upper trough axis pivots across the local area. SPC has placed the entire area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for strong to severe storms on Saturday, mainly in the afternoon. There may be a few hours where there is a favorable overlap between instability and shear, although the best shear will be displaced to our south.
Marginally severe wind and hail will be the primary concern with these storms with CAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, but still a low confidence forecast depending on the nature of convection father to our south that could block us from better moisture advection, much like today. Something to be aware of, especially if spending time outdoors. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 70s/lower 80s with light westerly/northwesterly winds.
This activity should come to an end from west to east tomorrow night. Dense fog may become a threat once again tomorrow night with light winds and clearing skies. Upper ridging will settle over the local area for the remainder of the short term forecast, resulting in dry and warm conditions. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s Sunday and Monday with overnight lows in the lower 60s.
LONG TERM
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Dry and warm conditions will continue into Tuesday, and thanks to a flow rounding a surface ridge along the east coast. After a mild night with lows in the lower 60s, highs on Monday should rise into the mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. This trend should continue on Tuesday with highs nearing 90 degrees in a few places. Lows in the mid 60s Mon night should range in the upper 60s to near 70 Tue night.
A storm system forecast to form over the Rockies and adjacent High Plains over the weekend will head to the NE, reaching the Great Lakes on Wednesday. A cold front trailing south of it will move across the area on Wed. Moisture convergence and lift preceding it will return medium chances (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms beginning Tue night. Unsettled weather with scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast into Thursday. Overall storm strength should remain "general" with a risk of strong outflow wind gusts, heavy downpours, and sudden and/or frequent lightning.
Even with more clouds and rain chances, high temperatures on Wed/Thu should range in the mid/upper 80s, and lows in the 60s.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
Ceilings will remain below 030agl (MVFR) over most areas through 05-06Z before lowering below 010agl (IFR), and in some areas below 005agl (LIFR), along with scattered -SHRA or DZ at times. The lowest ceilings are most likely to occur in northwest AL including KMSL, but has a medium chance at KHSV so future amendments are possible. Ceilings are forecast to lift to or above 030agl (IFR)
by 17-19Z. Daytime heating and an approaching upper level system will produce scattered to numerous SHRA and TSRA. A few +SHRA or +TSRA are possible, with small hail and gusty winds. Have included VCTS at this time as timing is uncertain at either TAF location.
HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
TN...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KMSL NORTHWEST ALABAMA RGNL,AL | 6 sm | 63 min | NW 03 | 10 sm | Overcast | 73°F | 66°F | 78% | 29.78 |
Northern Alabama,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE