Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 6:05 PM   Moonset 4:05 AM

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FXUS62 KFFC 210813 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 413 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024


Morning Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

High pressure aloft and at the surface through the short term period will produce warm and dry conditions throughout the short term period. The one exception to this will be across northeast Georgia this afternoon and evening where isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a weak disturbance to the north passes. With favorable prevailing surface winds out of the southeast providing a modest enhancement of daytime upslope winds, SBCAPE between 500- 1000+ J/kg, and some moisture remaining in the lower levels of the atmosphere, convection in mountainous terrain will be possible today. Max daily temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s today with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s tomorrow where areas in elevated terrain will remain in the 70s. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s.

KAL

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

The long term period will begin Wednesday night with upper level ridging over the East Coast and continuing out towards the Atlantic.
Meanwhile, an occluded low pressure system will be in centered in southeast Canada and drifting slowly to the north. Between these two features, southwesterly upper flow will set up over much of the eastern CONUS, including north Georgia, leading to increasing atmospheric moisture. A cold front extending from the low will have moved into the Tennessee Valley region as the period begins, at which point it will gradually sink southward towards north Georgia over the course of the day. After the morning starts out with lows in the mid to upper 60s, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to advance into far north Georgia by early Thursday morning as a weak disturbance traverses the upper-level flow and overruns the frontal boundary. PoPs on Thursday and Thursday night will mostly be confined to north of the I-20 corridor, with low-end chance PoPs in the far northern tier and and progressively lower chances to the south. Diurnal instability will be sufficient for the development of thunderstorms on Thursday, although severe weather is not likely at this time. Even in spite of increased cloud cover across far north Georgia near the front, the warming trend from the short term period will persist, with highs forecast to be in the upper 80s in north Georgia and low 90s in central Georgia. These high temperatures will be consistent with what can be expected for the remainder of the week and into the weekend, which will run about 5-9 degrees above climatological normals areawide.

As the low continues weakens and moves away to the northeast, the upper flow will become more zonally oriented and the frontal boundary will become more elongated from west to east, with its southward advance will slowing significantly. By Friday morning, the frontal boundary is forecast to stall near the Georgia/Tennessee state line. A more robust shortwave will traverse the westerlies and from the Lower Mississippi River Valley across the Southeast on Friday into Friday night. This setup is likely to bring more numerous showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area on Friday, especially where the wave overruns the stalled frontal boundary, providing a focus for additional convection. Uncertainty still remains in the model guidance with respect to the strength and exact position of this disturbance, which will influence where the most widespread precipitation will occur. While the frontal boundary will begin to dissipate by early Saturday morning, additional disturbances will continue to traverse the zonal westerlies and move through the Southeast this weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are thus expected on both Saturday and Sunday, with the highest chances during the afternoon each day where diurnal instability will be greatest.

King

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions through TAF cycle. Intermittent periods of reduced vsbys as low as 2SM at MCN possible through at least 10Z.
FEW035-050 developing as a cumulus field between 15 and 17Z before returning to FEW250/SKC by sunset on Tuesday. Light ESE winds at 5KT or less will become VRB03KT To calm at the end of the period.

//ATL Confidence
06Z Update
Medium confidence on reduced vsbys at MCN. High confidence on remaining elements.

KAL

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 86 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 86 65 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 79 59 82 61 / 20 0 0 0 Cartersville 87 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 87 64 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 84 64 86 66 / 10 0 0 0 Macon 86 62 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 88 64 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 86 61 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 85 63 88 67 / 0 0 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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