Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 6:33 PM   Moonset 4:29 AM

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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 835 Am Pdt Tue May 21 2024
Today - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 10 seconds. Tonight - W winds 10 to 20 kt with local gusts to 25 kt in the evening, becoming se 10 to 15 kt. Strongest western portion. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 2t or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Wed night - W winds 15 to 20 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Thu - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.Thu night - Western portion, W winds 15 to 20 kt becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds. Fri - W to nw winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft.Sat - W to nw winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft.

PZZ600 835 Am Pdt Tue May 21 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 15z, or 8 am pdt, a 1035 mb surface high was centered 900 nm west of eureka. A 1008 mb thermal low was centered over southern arizona.

FXUS66 KLOX 211536 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 836 AM PDT Tue May 21 2024

SYNOPSIS
21/231 AM.

Low clouds will continue through the morning with better clearing this afternoon. More sunshine with slight warming is expected today and Wednesday as onshore flow weakens. Then cooler with increasing marine layer clouds again the latter half of next week.

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...21/828 AM.

***UPDATE***

Offshore trends and a deep marine layer has lead to a chaotic low cloud pattern across southern areas with low confidence overall in cloud trends through tonight. Have updated the forecast with the latest thinking, although there is a 30-50 percent chance that low clouds are delayed to reform tonight and with skies potentially remaining clear for some coastal areas with the Santa Barbara South Coast and western Ventura County most likely to remain clear.

***From Previous Discussion***

Broad scale pos tilt troffing will cover the state and most of the western CONUS through the next three days. Good offshore trends will make today the day with the weakest onshore flow. Onshore flow will increase both Wed and Thu esp in the W to E direction.

Today will likely be the sunniest day due to the weaker onshore flow and a very weak marine layer capping inversion. Decent N to S flow across SBA county will keep the south coast cloud free. It is likely that most of the area will see sunshine in the afternoon and the evening will also likely be clear for most of the air.
Rising hgts, extra sunshine and weaker seabreezes will all add up to a noticeably warmer day (4 to 8 locally 10 degrees). Despite this warming max temps will come in 4 to 8 degrees blo normal.

Clouds will be slower to form tonight but by dawn most of the coasts and vlys should be covered with stratus. Clearing will likely be a little slower but almost all of the area will see sunshine in the afternoon. Higher hgts will bring continued warming to the interior but the stronger seabreeze will cool the coasts and to a lesser degree the vlys.

The troffing will be a little more vigorous on Thursday and the onshore flow will increase to near 9 mb w to e. Look for the return of a deep vly penetrating marine layer stratus field with slow to no clearing. Max temps will fall 3 to 6 degrees and will end up mostly in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the coasts and vlys. The interior will end up upper 70s and to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...21/317 AM.

For the extended, models and their respective ensembles are in decent agreement through the period. The broad upper level trof will continue over the area Fri/Sat. On Sun/Mon weak ridge will move into the state.

On Fri/Sat look for a May Grey pattern with total marine layer stratus coverage over the csts/vly and xtnding into the mtn passes. Clearing will be slow across the vlys and interior coastal sections while most of the coastlines will remain mired in the low clouds. The moderate to strong onshore gradients will likely produce some advisory level westerly winds across interior sections each afternoon and early evening, especially in the Antelope Valley foothills.

For Sunday/Monday, increasing heights will smoosh the marine layer down which will decrease the inland penetration. Also with rising thicknesses and less marine influence, a warming trend can be expected for all areas except right at the beaches.

AVIATION
21/1155Z.

At 10z at KLAX, the marine layer was 3600 ft deep. The top of the inversion was at 4300 feet with a temperature of 13 C.

Good confidence in desert TAFs. Otherwise, low to moderate confidence in the TAFs as the marine layer was rather chaotic in nature.

Areas of clouds in coastal and valley locations, with decent gaps in cloud coverage in coastal areas of southern SBA and Ventura Counties. Cigs were mostly MVFR to even low VFR, except IFR N of Pt. Conception, and IFR to VLIFR in the foothills. Skies should clear in most areas by late morning, except possibly early afternoon in some coastal areas. Expect somewhat less in the way of low clouds tonight, but still should affect most coastal and valley areas. Once again, expect mainly MVFR cigs tonight, except IFR to VLIFR N of Pt. Conception, and in the foothills.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance that cigs this morning will be mostly in the VFR category. There is a 10-20% chance that cigs could linger until 21Z. There is a 20% chance that cigs tonight will hold off until at least 07Z. Good confidence that any east wind component will be 5 knots or less.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance that cigs could linger until as late as 20Z. There is a 20% chance that conds will remain VFR tonight.

MARINE
21/834 AM.

Moderate confidence in forecast, except low-moderate confidence for the inner waters N of Pt. Sal and in the western SBA Channel.

In the outer waters, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas will become widespread today and continue much of the time thru Sat. There may be a lull in the winds during the very late night thru morning hours, especially Thu night/Fri morning. There is a 30% chance of gales Wed afternoon/eve.

In the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds this afternoon/eve, and a 40-50% chance during the afternoon/eve hours Wed. SCA level winds are likely during the afternoon/eve hours Thu and Sat.

In the inner water S of Pt. Sal, there is a 30% chance of SCA level winds in western portions of the SBA Channel this afternoon/eve, then a 40-50% chance during the afternoon/eve hours Wed thru Sat. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected.

A long period south to southwest swell will subside late tonight into Wed. This will create larger than usual breaking waves nearshore and stronger currents near most harbor entrances.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon for zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Rincon Island
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Tue -- 03:27 AM PDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:29 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:51 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:39 AM PDT     3.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:34 PM PDT     1.80 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:32 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:58 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:51 PM PDT     5.65 feet High Tide
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Rincon Island, California (2), Tide feet

Rincon Island
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Tue -- 03:28 AM PDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:29 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:51 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:45 AM PDT     3.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:26 PM PDT     1.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:32 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:58 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:46 PM PDT     5.71 feet High Tide
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Rincon Island, California, Tide feet

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