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FXUS62 KFFC 211845 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 245 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

A quiet weather pattern will prevail through the short term. High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will continue to suppress any appreciable precipitation chances through Wednesday.
The only exception would be an isolated orographically induced shower or thunderstorm this afternoon in the mountains of far northeast Georgia, but the vast majority of us will remain dry.

Temperatures Wednesday will continue our gradual warming trend with highs creeping up a degree or two above today, reaching the mid-to-upper 80s areawide outside of the mountains.

RW



LONG TERM
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Westerly/southwesterly flow aloft will start off the long-term period on Thursday. Perturbations in the flow over the TN Valley will help spark scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday, mainly across north Georgia. The SREF is depicting virtually a 100% chance for SBCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg and a 60% chance or greater for CAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg, and with 30+ kts of surface-to-500mb bulk shear, scattered convection looks likely both days. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s outside of the mountains on Thursday and Friday. Lows will be in the 60s.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft will build in this weekend through Monday with continued perturbations in the flow. An influx of moisture -- characterized by PWAT climbing to around 1.5" per ensemble guidance -- and ample instability will support area-wide PoPs, with the greatest PoPs (45% to 65%) across north Georgia each day.
SPC has a Day 6 (Sunday) 15% risk for severe weather across a portion of the OH and TN Valleys (just northwest of Georgia) given the progged proximity of a 500mb speed max along with ample progged instability. Across portions of north Georgia on Sunday, the GEFS has a 20% to 30% chance for CAPE greater than 500 J/kg and bulk shear greater than 40 kts, so some strong to severe storms are possible. Highs this weekend and Monday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows will be in the mid-60s to lower 70s.

Martin



AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. SCT/BKN cu in the 4-6 kft range will diminish after 00Z with cu forming again after 15-16Z Wednesday. ESE/SE winds at 4-8 kts will become near calm overnight with direction becoming SSW after 12Z Wednesday at 3-6 kts.

//ATL Confidence
18Z Update
High confidence.

RW



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 61 87 66 88 / 0 0 0 10 Atlanta 64 87 69 88 / 0 0 0 10 Blairsville 59 81 62 81 / 0 10 10 30 Cartersville 63 88 67 88 / 0 0 10 10 Columbus 64 88 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 63 85 67 86 / 0 0 0 20 Macon 63 88 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 63 88 67 88 / 0 0 10 10 Peachtree City 62 88 67 88 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 65 88 68 91 / 0 0 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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