Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 6:05 PM   Moonset 4:07 AM

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FXUS62 KFFC 210519 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 119 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

New 06Z Aviation Discussion

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

WPC surface analysis reveals a high pressure system centered on the Appalachians. Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery shows cumulus development over the mountains of NE and N-central GA, where CAMs are showing orographically-forced showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms developing this afternoon. So far, convection has not quite initiated, but with SBCAPE at 1500 J/kg across the mountains per SPC mesoanalysis and sufficient low-level and mid- level lapse rates, expect to see some showers develop in the next couple hours with further warming/destabilization. SPC has far north GA outlooked in a General Thunder risk, which makes sense, as strong convection appears unlikely given high pressure, weak ridging aloft, and a relatively drier airmass in place. High temperatures will be in the lower- to mid-80s outside of the mountains, where high temps will be in the 70s. The overnight period will be dry besides the possibility of a few lingering showers across NE and N-central GA. Low temps will be in the 60s.

Weak ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will persist tomorrow (Tuesday). Similar to today, CAMs suggest development of orographically-driven showers and possibly a thunderstorm over the Appalachians tomorrow. Per the HRRR, SBCAPE values look to be similar to those today, but with the high pressure setup further establishing itself over the Southeast with continued ridging aloft, convection may have a more difficult time/take longer in the afternoon to initiate. High temps will generally be a few degrees warmer than those today -- in the mid- to upper-80s -- and in the mountains, highs will be in the 70s again.

Martin

LONG TERM
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Starting off the long term period with Wednesday, the area will continue to be under the influence of the long wave ridge set up over almost the entire eastern third of the CONUS. This along with the lack of moisture over the area will continue the dry and warm trend over the area. The unfortunate piece to this is that temperature will quickly rise with many area reaching close to 90 which goes in line with the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temperatures.

While this ridging is dominating our area, the low pressure system to the west will track into the Great Lakes region, dragging a cold front into Tennessee where it is expected to stall out. While this is happening, the ridging moves off to the east and the flow becomes more zonal over the area which gives way to short bursts of vorticity moving through the overall flow. With the front stalling over Tennessee and the waves sticking to more of north Georgia, the rain chances beginning on Friday will be mainly confined to the northern portions of the area although Saturday showers could reach down into central Georgia. Rain chances have decreased slightly over the weekend but should the front sag any further south then those rain chances would sag south as well. Temps will stay in the upper 80s to low 90s for much of the area through the period with no real relief in sight unfortunately.

Hernandez

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions through TAF cycle. Intermittent periods of reduced vsbys as low as 2SM at MCN possible through at least 10Z.
FEW035-050 developing as a cumulus field between 15 and 17Z before returning to FEW250/SKC by sunset on Tuesday. Light ESE winds at 5KT or less will become VRB03KT To calm at the end of the period.

//ATL Confidence
06Z Update
Medium confidence on reduced vsbys at MCN. High confidence on remaining elements.

KAL

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 61 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 65 88 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 59 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 20 Cartersville 62 88 65 89 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 65 88 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 63 85 65 88 / 0 0 0 10 Macon 61 88 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 64 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 10 Peachtree City 62 88 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 63 88 67 91 / 0 0 0 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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