Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Paris, TX
May 21, 2024 3:13 AM CDT (08:13 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:15 AM Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 5:51 PM Moonset 3:53 AM |
Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 210740 AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 240 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
New Long Term
SHORT TERM
/Issued 1250 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ /Through Tuesday Night/
The remainder of the night will feature dry and quiet conditions as the overhead mid-level ridge exits to the east. Broad troughing will dig over the western CONUS setting the stage for a few active weather days during the midweek period. Increasing moisture along southerly low-level flow will draw stratus northward over North and Central Texas before sunrise Tuesday morning, lifting and scattering by midday Tuesday. Expect warm and humid conditions with temperatures starting in the mid-70s for the Tuesday morning commute. By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the region (potentially mid-90s across the Big Country). Abundant moisture marked by surface dewpoints in the low to mid-70s will produce heat index values in the 95-100 degree range.
A conditional setup for isolated severe thunderstorms will exist across our western zones late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. The greater synoptic-scale ascent will remain far displaced to the north ahead of a mid-level shortwave passing over northern Oklahoma/Kansas. However, daytime heating and surface convergence along a dryline may offer enough support to get a few isolated thunderstorms going along the dryline as the cap weakens by 4-5pm Tuesday evening (~20% chance of this occurring). This dryline will likely be positioned from Bowie-Jacksboro-Cisco during the time of potential convective initiation. The environment will support severe weather if thunderstorms do develop with primarily a large hail and damaging wind threat. The loss of daytime heating and increasing SBCIN will allow storms to weaken as they shift east through the evening and early overnight, likely dissipating as they approach the I-35/35W corridor.
The remainder of Tuesday night will feature warm, humid conditions with another surge of low-level stratus ahead of a cold front that will bring the potential for more widespread severe weather Wednesday.
Langfeld
LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Wednesday Onward/
A cold front will sag south into North Texas on Wednesday as a shortwave sweeps across the Plains. A few storm clusters may be ongoing around daybreak Wednesday as the front crosses the Red River, with activity dissipating mid to late morning as the low level jet mixes out. The front will likely stall somewhere between I-20 and the Red River, providing focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon as the right entrance region of a 90kt jet approaches from the west. Strong flow aloft (and the resulting deep layer shear) combined with good instability will lead to some of these storm becoming severe with large hail and damaging winds both possible. The presence of the surface front may also enhance the tornado threat at times, though a persistent warm layer at 850 to 700mb will hopefully mitigate tornado development.
Thunderstorms (some severe) will continue into Wednesday evening, with the best storm chances being along and north of I-20 near the surface front. PWats near 2 inches will also allow for locally heavy rain in thunderstorms, and flooding may become an issue where any training convection may occur. Storms will begin to wind down around midnight Wednesday night, with activity eventually dissipating during the overnight hours.
Thunderstorms will redevelop on Thursday as a shortwave trough passes overhead, with the surface boundary (along with other possible mesoscale boundaries from Wednesday convection) providing a focus for development. Shear and instability will be more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms, with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes possible. Some deterministic guidance in fact indicates a higher tornado threat for Thursday, but I would like to see better resolution guidance in the form of convection allowing models (which will arrive later today through Wednesday) before ramping up the tornado messaging. The persistent warm layer could also work against tornado development.
In any case storms will continue into Thursday evening, with the best rain chances again being along and north of I-20 near the surface boundary. That being said, any southward shift in the front itself or in any mesoscale boundary could shift the better storm chances southward into Central Texas.
Activity will dissipate overnight Thursday night, giving way to a hot and humid Friday. Dewpoints in the lower 70s and highs in the lower to middle 90s will yield 100+ degree heat indices Friday afternoon, with the front having lifted well north of the Red River by then. The heat will continue through the weekend, with parts of Central Texas possibly reaching Heat Advisory criteria on Saturday.
There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday afternoons associated with the dryline. Though storm coverage may remain isolated, each storm which manages to develop would likely become severe. A deepening low over the Great Lakes will send a cold front southward into the region once again on Monday, providing some relief from the heat along with a slight chance of storms for Memorial Day. At this time, it looks like the front will push through the entire region, leading to warm but drier weather next Tuesday through the midweek period of next week.
30
AVIATION
/Issued 1250 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ /06Z TAFs/
MVFR stratus around 1200-1500ft will overspread much of North and Central Texas later tonight, reaching KACT by ~08Z and the D10 terminals by ~10Z. There is a less than 20% chance that IFR conditions (cigs ~800-900ft) may briefly be realized early Tuesday morning at KACT and other Central Texas terminals, so we opted to keep it out of the 06Z issuance. Cigs should gradually lift through the morning, becoming VFR by 16Z-17Z for much of the region. South flow at 12-16 kts with occasional gusts to 20-25kts is expected tomorrow.
There is a low chance that a few isolated thunderstorms may develop along a dryline west of the D10 terminals between 21Z-23Z Tuesday afternoon/evening. If storms do develop, they would move east toward the I-35 corridor in the 00Z-02Z timeframe. However, it is likely that these thunderstorms, if they are to develop, will weaken/dissipate before approaching I-35/35W. A conditional setup for thunderstorms to develop, isolated coverage, and the potential for storms to dissipate before impacting our terminals will keep us from adding VCTS to the TAF at this moment. However, we will continue to monitor, especially for potential impacts to the UKW and JEN cornerposts.
Langfeld
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 76 89 74 86 / 10 10 60 40 50 Waco 89 76 89 74 88 / 5 10 20 20 40 Paris 88 74 87 70 84 / 10 20 60 60 50 Denton 89 75 88 72 85 / 10 10 60 50 60 McKinney 89 75 88 72 84 / 10 10 60 50 50 Dallas 91 76 90 74 87 / 10 10 60 40 50 Terrell 89 75 88 72 86 / 10 10 50 40 50 Corsicana 91 76 90 75 89 / 5 10 20 20 40 Temple 90 75 89 74 89 / 5 10 10 10 30 Mineral Wells 91 74 88 71 86 / 20 20 50 40 50
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 240 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
New Long Term
SHORT TERM
/Issued 1250 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ /Through Tuesday Night/
The remainder of the night will feature dry and quiet conditions as the overhead mid-level ridge exits to the east. Broad troughing will dig over the western CONUS setting the stage for a few active weather days during the midweek period. Increasing moisture along southerly low-level flow will draw stratus northward over North and Central Texas before sunrise Tuesday morning, lifting and scattering by midday Tuesday. Expect warm and humid conditions with temperatures starting in the mid-70s for the Tuesday morning commute. By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the region (potentially mid-90s across the Big Country). Abundant moisture marked by surface dewpoints in the low to mid-70s will produce heat index values in the 95-100 degree range.
A conditional setup for isolated severe thunderstorms will exist across our western zones late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. The greater synoptic-scale ascent will remain far displaced to the north ahead of a mid-level shortwave passing over northern Oklahoma/Kansas. However, daytime heating and surface convergence along a dryline may offer enough support to get a few isolated thunderstorms going along the dryline as the cap weakens by 4-5pm Tuesday evening (~20% chance of this occurring). This dryline will likely be positioned from Bowie-Jacksboro-Cisco during the time of potential convective initiation. The environment will support severe weather if thunderstorms do develop with primarily a large hail and damaging wind threat. The loss of daytime heating and increasing SBCIN will allow storms to weaken as they shift east through the evening and early overnight, likely dissipating as they approach the I-35/35W corridor.
The remainder of Tuesday night will feature warm, humid conditions with another surge of low-level stratus ahead of a cold front that will bring the potential for more widespread severe weather Wednesday.
Langfeld
LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Wednesday Onward/
A cold front will sag south into North Texas on Wednesday as a shortwave sweeps across the Plains. A few storm clusters may be ongoing around daybreak Wednesday as the front crosses the Red River, with activity dissipating mid to late morning as the low level jet mixes out. The front will likely stall somewhere between I-20 and the Red River, providing focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon as the right entrance region of a 90kt jet approaches from the west. Strong flow aloft (and the resulting deep layer shear) combined with good instability will lead to some of these storm becoming severe with large hail and damaging winds both possible. The presence of the surface front may also enhance the tornado threat at times, though a persistent warm layer at 850 to 700mb will hopefully mitigate tornado development.
Thunderstorms (some severe) will continue into Wednesday evening, with the best storm chances being along and north of I-20 near the surface front. PWats near 2 inches will also allow for locally heavy rain in thunderstorms, and flooding may become an issue where any training convection may occur. Storms will begin to wind down around midnight Wednesday night, with activity eventually dissipating during the overnight hours.
Thunderstorms will redevelop on Thursday as a shortwave trough passes overhead, with the surface boundary (along with other possible mesoscale boundaries from Wednesday convection) providing a focus for development. Shear and instability will be more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms, with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes possible. Some deterministic guidance in fact indicates a higher tornado threat for Thursday, but I would like to see better resolution guidance in the form of convection allowing models (which will arrive later today through Wednesday) before ramping up the tornado messaging. The persistent warm layer could also work against tornado development.
In any case storms will continue into Thursday evening, with the best rain chances again being along and north of I-20 near the surface boundary. That being said, any southward shift in the front itself or in any mesoscale boundary could shift the better storm chances southward into Central Texas.
Activity will dissipate overnight Thursday night, giving way to a hot and humid Friday. Dewpoints in the lower 70s and highs in the lower to middle 90s will yield 100+ degree heat indices Friday afternoon, with the front having lifted well north of the Red River by then. The heat will continue through the weekend, with parts of Central Texas possibly reaching Heat Advisory criteria on Saturday.
There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday afternoons associated with the dryline. Though storm coverage may remain isolated, each storm which manages to develop would likely become severe. A deepening low over the Great Lakes will send a cold front southward into the region once again on Monday, providing some relief from the heat along with a slight chance of storms for Memorial Day. At this time, it looks like the front will push through the entire region, leading to warm but drier weather next Tuesday through the midweek period of next week.
30
AVIATION
/Issued 1250 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ /06Z TAFs/
MVFR stratus around 1200-1500ft will overspread much of North and Central Texas later tonight, reaching KACT by ~08Z and the D10 terminals by ~10Z. There is a less than 20% chance that IFR conditions (cigs ~800-900ft) may briefly be realized early Tuesday morning at KACT and other Central Texas terminals, so we opted to keep it out of the 06Z issuance. Cigs should gradually lift through the morning, becoming VFR by 16Z-17Z for much of the region. South flow at 12-16 kts with occasional gusts to 20-25kts is expected tomorrow.
There is a low chance that a few isolated thunderstorms may develop along a dryline west of the D10 terminals between 21Z-23Z Tuesday afternoon/evening. If storms do develop, they would move east toward the I-35 corridor in the 00Z-02Z timeframe. However, it is likely that these thunderstorms, if they are to develop, will weaken/dissipate before approaching I-35/35W. A conditional setup for thunderstorms to develop, isolated coverage, and the potential for storms to dissipate before impacting our terminals will keep us from adding VCTS to the TAF at this moment. However, we will continue to monitor, especially for potential impacts to the UKW and JEN cornerposts.
Langfeld
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 76 89 74 86 / 10 10 60 40 50 Waco 89 76 89 74 88 / 5 10 20 20 40 Paris 88 74 87 70 84 / 10 20 60 60 50 Denton 89 75 88 72 85 / 10 10 60 50 60 McKinney 89 75 88 72 84 / 10 10 60 50 50 Dallas 91 76 90 74 87 / 10 10 60 40 50 Terrell 89 75 88 72 86 / 10 10 50 40 50 Corsicana 91 76 90 75 89 / 5 10 20 20 40 Temple 90 75 89 74 89 / 5 10 10 10 30 Mineral Wells 91 74 88 71 86 / 20 20 50 40 50
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPRX COX FIELD,TX | 5 sm | 17 min | SSE 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 72°F | 66°F | 83% | 29.80 |
Shreveport, LA,
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