Sunrise 6:24 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 5:57 PM   Moonset 4:01 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 210550 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1250 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday Night/

The remainder of the night will feature dry and quiet conditions as the overhead mid-level ridge exits to the east. Broad troughing will dig over the western CONUS setting the stage for a few active weather days during the midweek period. Increasing moisture along southerly low-level flow will draw stratus northward over North and Central Texas before sunrise Tuesday morning, lifting and scattering by midday Tuesday. Expect warm and humid conditions with temperatures starting in the mid-70s for the Tuesday morning commute. By Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the region (potentially mid-90s across the Big Country). Abundant moisture marked by surface dewpoints in the low to mid-70s will produce heat index values in the 95-100 degree range.

A conditional setup for isolated severe thunderstorms will exist across our western zones late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. The greater synoptic-scale ascent will remain far displaced to the north ahead of a mid-level shortwave passing over northern Oklahoma/Kansas. However, daytime heating and surface convergence along a dryline may offer enough support to get a few isolated thunderstorms going along the dryline as the cap weakens by 4-5pm Tuesday evening (~20% chance of this occurring). This dryline will likely be positioned from Bowie-Jacksboro-Cisco during the time of potential convective initiation. The environment will support severe weather if thunderstorms do develop with primarily a large hail and damaging wind threat. The loss of daytime heating and increasing SBCIN will allow storms to weaken as they shift east through the evening and early overnight, likely dissipating as they approach the I-35/35W corridor.

The remainder of Tuesday night will feature warm, humid conditions with another surge of low-level stratus ahead of a cold front that will bring the potential for more widespread severe weather Wednesday.

Langfeld

LONG TERM
/Issued 245 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024/ /Tuesday Night Onward/

Another shortwave disturbance will move across the region in the wake of a departing impulse on Wednesday, ushering a cold front south through the region. The exact southward extent of the front is still uncertain as ensemble guidance has the front just barely making it into our northwestern counties, while the NAM has it essentially bisecting our region before stalling as its upper level support races off to the northeast. Nonetheless, lift from the front will allow for showers and storms, some strong to severe, near and along the boundary as it moves south through the afternoon hours. While an overall lull in storms is expected overnight into Thursday morning, low chances for isolated to scattered showers/storms will remain mainly in our north and western counties. Another increase in storm activity/coverage is expected Thursday afternoon and evening as another shortwave moves across the Southern Plains and urges the stalled boundary northward as a warm front. Best chances for precipitation continue to remain across North Texas both days.

Strong to severe storms will once again be possible across a majority of the region as 60-70+ dewpoints are expected region wide alongside abundant instability and shear. At this time, large hail and damaging winds look to be the main concern. Additionally, PWAT values in excess of 1.5" (and in some areas in excess of 2")
will promote efficient rainfall producers during midweek. The flooding threat will likely ramp up during this time, especially in those areas that are still saturated.

With a dryline ever-present to our west, multiple impulses within the overall mid-level flow will promote on-and-off isolated to scattered storm chances through the rest of next weekend.
Currently, the bigger forecast concern for next weekend will be the combination of heat and humidity on outdoor conditions. The presence of the frontal boundary and rain chances will help to keep temperatures slightly lower midweek, but temperatures will rise back into the upper 80s to mid 90s by Friday. These unseasonably warm temperatures, combined with humid 60-70 degree dewpoints, will promote increased afternoon heat index values in the mid 90s to around 105 Friday through Sunday. Caution will need to be taken with regard to outdoor activities during the heat of the day this next weekend.

Prater

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/

MVFR stratus around 1200-1500ft will overspread much of North and Central Texas later tonight, reaching KACT by ~08Z and the D10 terminals by ~10Z. There is a less than 20% chance that IFR conditions (cigs ~800-900ft) may briefly be realized early Tuesday morning at KACT and other Central Texas terminals, so we opted to keep it out of the 06Z issuance. Cigs should gradually lift through the morning, becoming VFR by 16Z-17Z for much of the region. South flow at 12-16 kts with occasional gusts to 20-25kts is expected tomorrow.

There is a low chance that a few isolated thunderstorms may develop along a dryline west of the D10 terminals between 21Z-23Z Tuesday afternoon/evening. If storms do develop, they would move east toward the I-35 corridor in the 00Z-02Z timeframe. However, it is likely that these thunderstorms, if they are to develop, will weaken/dissipate before approaching I-35/35W. A conditional setup for thunderstorms to develop, isolated coverage, and the potential for storms to dissipate before impacting our terminals will keep us from adding VCTS to the TAF at this moment. However, we will continue to monitor, especially for potential impacts to the UKW and JEN cornerposts.

Langfeld


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 89 76 89 71 / 0 5 10 40 50 Waco 74 89 76 89 74 / 0 0 5 20 20 Paris 69 86 75 86 68 / 0 5 10 50 60 Denton 74 88 73 88 68 / 0 10 20 50 50 McKinney 74 86 75 88 69 / 0 5 10 40 50 Dallas 75 89 76 90 71 / 0 5 10 40 40 Terrell 72 87 75 88 71 / 0 5 10 30 40 Corsicana 74 89 76 90 74 / 0 0 5 20 20 Temple 74 89 75 89 73 / 0 0 5 20 20 Mineral Wells 73 90 73 88 69 / 0 10 20 50 40

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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