Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 5:42 PM   Moonset 3:48 AM

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FXUS64 KSHV 210557 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1257 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 950 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

As of 9:45 PM CDT, temperatures are falling towards the upper 70s under increasingly partly cloudy skies and light southeasterly winds. Temperature minimums will fall into the upper 60s/lower 70s. With weather and observed trends continuing as anticipated, forecast grid adjustments were not necessary at this time. /16/

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The northern edge of a strong upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to keep our Four State region largely dry and anomalously warm through the short term period. Expect building and strengthening southerly low level flow to be bringing back more moisture into the region from the south and southwest starting late tonight and this will result in low clouds coming back to at least west/southwest zones very late tonight through the morning hours tomorrow. The combination of clouds and slightly higher winds will keep low temperatures even warmer than was the case this morning and at least coming close to tying some area record high minimum temperatures is possible.

High temperatures tomorrow will be a little more regulated by a bit more cloud cover, but we still anticipate max temperatures ranging from 89 to 94 degrees with peak afternoon heat index values getting near 100 degrees in spots. A quick moving disturbance moving quickly through the Central Plains and Midwest tomorrow to the north of the aforementioned ridge should kick off potent thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold front up to our north later tomorrow. There is some chance that the tail end of these storms could encroach into areas northwest of the I-30 corridor tomorrow night and a stray severe storm up there cannot be totally ruled out tomorrow night. That said, a large majority of our region should be dry through tomorrow night. Lows tomorrow night will be even warmer with even more low clouds and slightly increased southerly winds. This will put more climate sites in jeopardy of setting record high minimum temperatures.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The main theme of the long range portion of the forecast will be above normal temperatures, although there will also be decent chances of storm (along with a risk of severe storms), especially across the northern half of the region.

The cold front kicking off storms in the Central Plains and Midwest tomorrow will be sagging closer to our the far NW portion of the Four State region on Wednesday, with another fast moving disturbance riding the northwest periphery of the southern states high pressure ridge likely kicking up afternoon and evening thunderstorms that should affect at least our northwestern zones.
The Storm Prediction Center has many of these areas outlined in a Slight Risk for Wednesday afternoon into the night, with the main risks with any severe storms being large hail and damaging wind gusts. Increased clouds and southerly winds should help limit highs to the upper 80s and lower 90s, but the somewhat higher humidity could still result in peak heat index values approaching, if not hitting, the century mark.

The upper level ridge will be shunted a bit to the south on Thursday as the perturbed westerlies aloft to the north of the ridge push a bit south as well. The aforementioned front will be weak at the surface and perhaps extending into our northern zones, but confidence is higher that residual outflow boundaries will provide triggers for convection in at least northern zones again Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Once again, the combination of instability and wind shear is expected to be enough to at least warrant a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms (again, mainly with a high wind and hail risk) in central and southern zones.

Uncertainty increases in NWP guidance past Thursday, but there is a loose consensus that the northern edge of the southern states ridge will reassert itself again for Friday and through the weekend. This will mean lower chances for showers and thunderstorms these days, with the chances again more confined to northern zones. Also, the heat and humidity will probably increase further still and perhaps put more areas in jeopardy for tying or breaking records for late May heat. A subtle pattern change toward "northwest flow", greater thunderstorm threats, and slight cooler temperatures still is a possibility for the start of next week, but of course the uncertainty with regard to that shift is relatively high given how far out we are talking in the forecast cycle. /50/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

High cirrus clouds will rapidly increase from west to east at the start of the period. At the same time, low clouds and patchy fog will spread northward bringing MVFR ceilings to most TAF sites with the exception of KMLU. Patchy fog in South Central Arkansas is already bringing IFR visibilities to KELD, but some improvement may occur before sunrise as more high clouds arrive. Flight conditions should slowly improve back into the VFR range by 21/18z. Another round of low clouds are expected to return very to the area very late in the period.

CN

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 91 75 92 / 0 10 20 20 MLU 73 89 72 91 / 0 10 10 20 DEQ 72 87 68 85 / 10 50 60 60 TXK 76 91 71 89 / 10 30 50 40 ELD 73 89 69 88 / 0 20 30 30 TYR 76 90 74 89 / 0 20 30 40 GGG 75 90 73 90 / 0 10 20 30 LFK 75 90 74 91 / 0 0 10 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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