Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Frierson, LA
May 21, 2024 7:51 AM CDT (12:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:11 AM Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 5:41 PM Moonset 3:47 AM |
Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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FXUS64 KSHV 211148 AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 648 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Tightening boundary layer pressure gradient this morning is indicative on what we are seeing on IR Imagery currently with the return of low level cloud cover across at least the western half of our region. This low level warm air and moisture advection is having an adverse effect on temps compared to 24 hours ago as well with current ambient temperatures running some 2-6 degrees warmer across most locations.
Upper level ridging is still firmly in place this morning from SE TX through our region and into the Tenn Valley but this feature will edge eastward today, allowing for more in the way of southwesterly flow aloft upstream across the Middle Red River Valley of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR by this evening into the overnight hours. Shortwave energy will likely remain locked up well north of our region but there could be enough forcing across E OK into far NE TX to support some strong to severe convection by this evening. Convective initiation today will be highly conditional on a strong capping inversion being broken later today and if that can materialize, then initiation will likely take place north northwest of our far northwest zones with the possibility of some of this convection moving into our far northwest zones during the evening and overnight hours. CAMS are split on this outcome and with SPC's SLGT Risk for severe convection across our far northwest zones late today/overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of large hail and damaging wind gusts, again, if the CAP can be broken and we can see any upstream convection move into our region. My only pops today through 7pm are across far northwest McCurtain County, OK and only of the Slight Chance variety. Pops only expand in coverage to encompass NE TX, SE OK and SW AR, mainly this evening and in the low end chance variety given the uncertainties mentioned above.
By Wed, we will have lost any influence of the upper ridging to our east as southwest flow aloft only increases upstream from the TX Hill Country and into the Middle Red River Valley. There will be at least two disturbances in this flow that we will need to be alert to. The first possibly influencing our northwest third during the morning hours on Wed and another by very late in the afternoon and into the evening hours Wed Night. CAMS remain split on these outcomes as well with some not even acknowledging the first disturbance but most focusing on the second disturbance.
Likewise, SPC has outlooked most of our region near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor in an ENH Risk for severe thunderstorms on Wed/Wed Night and this looks mostly tied to a wind/hail threat.
Capping does not appear to be an issue on Wed compared to today so pops for Wed have been adjusted upward to likely categories near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor with low end chance variety as far south as the I-20 Corridor of NE TX into N LA.
13
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Thursday's convective development will be tied to just what kind of boundaries we are left over with from Wed/Wed Night's convection, not to mention residual disturbances in a stout WSW flow aloft regime. Given the upstream forcing in the deterministic models, again, capping should not be an issue and instability appears to be near to that we should see on Wednesday with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main threats once again. It does appear that the true cold front should remain just to our northwest on Thu with this feature returning back northward Thu into Thu Night. In addition to the severe weather threat Thu, we will need to watch for an excessive heavy rainfall threat as well but that will greatly depend on just how much rainfall our northwest half sees Wed into Wed Night. Over the last two weeks, it's been our northwest and northern zones that have not seen near the rainfall amounts our southern half has seen and thus, as long at the rainfall does not become too excessive near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor Wed/Wed Night, we should be able to take the additional rainfall across our northwest half on Thu without too much in the way of widespread flooding impacts.
Pivoting to Friday and the upcoming Memorial Holiday Weekend, deterministic models are in pretty good agreement without too much in the way of widespread precipitation chances, instead, slight chance/low end chance variety pops will be tied to diurnal heating. Having said that, the upper flow pattern will remain west southwesterly and thus, the pop forecast confidence remains a low one for the upcoming weekend into Memorial Day. One thing that is a little more certain is the weekend heat with high temperatures likely in the middle 90s at least near and south of the I-20 Corridor with heat indices well into the triple digits but just under Heat Advisory Criteria of 105 degrees.
There still appears to be a pattern shift beyond Memorial Day next week as upper ridging appears to become dominate across the Intermountain West with troughing developing across the Great Lakes, into the Ohio and Tenn Valleys. This should result in a cooler pattern for our region with a frontal passage sometime on Memorial Day or into Monday Night with obviously chance pops tied to the front itself.
13
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Low clouds and MVFR ceilings will persist across portions of East Texas and Western Louisiana along and south of Interstate 20 for the first few hours of the TAF period. However, flight conditions should gradually improve back into the VFR range before 21/18z.
More low clouds and MVFR/IFR flight conditions are expected to rapidly spread across the region during the after 22/04z, likely affecting most TAF sites. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may also affect Southeast Oklahoma and portions of Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas in the 21/23z-22/06z time frame. KTXK and KTYR are the most likely TAF sites to be affected, but confidence is currently too low to mention thunderstorms in the TAFs.
CN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 93 77 91 74 / 0 10 20 30 MLU 92 73 89 71 / 0 10 20 20 DEQ 89 71 85 67 / 10 30 70 70 TXK 92 75 90 70 / 10 20 60 60 ELD 91 73 88 68 / 0 10 40 40 TYR 91 76 90 73 / 10 20 30 30 GGG 91 76 90 73 / 10 20 20 30 LFK 91 76 90 73 / 10 10 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 648 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Tightening boundary layer pressure gradient this morning is indicative on what we are seeing on IR Imagery currently with the return of low level cloud cover across at least the western half of our region. This low level warm air and moisture advection is having an adverse effect on temps compared to 24 hours ago as well with current ambient temperatures running some 2-6 degrees warmer across most locations.
Upper level ridging is still firmly in place this morning from SE TX through our region and into the Tenn Valley but this feature will edge eastward today, allowing for more in the way of southwesterly flow aloft upstream across the Middle Red River Valley of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR by this evening into the overnight hours. Shortwave energy will likely remain locked up well north of our region but there could be enough forcing across E OK into far NE TX to support some strong to severe convection by this evening. Convective initiation today will be highly conditional on a strong capping inversion being broken later today and if that can materialize, then initiation will likely take place north northwest of our far northwest zones with the possibility of some of this convection moving into our far northwest zones during the evening and overnight hours. CAMS are split on this outcome and with SPC's SLGT Risk for severe convection across our far northwest zones late today/overnight, cannot rule out the possibility of large hail and damaging wind gusts, again, if the CAP can be broken and we can see any upstream convection move into our region. My only pops today through 7pm are across far northwest McCurtain County, OK and only of the Slight Chance variety. Pops only expand in coverage to encompass NE TX, SE OK and SW AR, mainly this evening and in the low end chance variety given the uncertainties mentioned above.
By Wed, we will have lost any influence of the upper ridging to our east as southwest flow aloft only increases upstream from the TX Hill Country and into the Middle Red River Valley. There will be at least two disturbances in this flow that we will need to be alert to. The first possibly influencing our northwest third during the morning hours on Wed and another by very late in the afternoon and into the evening hours Wed Night. CAMS remain split on these outcomes as well with some not even acknowledging the first disturbance but most focusing on the second disturbance.
Likewise, SPC has outlooked most of our region near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor in an ENH Risk for severe thunderstorms on Wed/Wed Night and this looks mostly tied to a wind/hail threat.
Capping does not appear to be an issue on Wed compared to today so pops for Wed have been adjusted upward to likely categories near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor with low end chance variety as far south as the I-20 Corridor of NE TX into N LA.
13
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Thursday's convective development will be tied to just what kind of boundaries we are left over with from Wed/Wed Night's convection, not to mention residual disturbances in a stout WSW flow aloft regime. Given the upstream forcing in the deterministic models, again, capping should not be an issue and instability appears to be near to that we should see on Wednesday with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main threats once again. It does appear that the true cold front should remain just to our northwest on Thu with this feature returning back northward Thu into Thu Night. In addition to the severe weather threat Thu, we will need to watch for an excessive heavy rainfall threat as well but that will greatly depend on just how much rainfall our northwest half sees Wed into Wed Night. Over the last two weeks, it's been our northwest and northern zones that have not seen near the rainfall amounts our southern half has seen and thus, as long at the rainfall does not become too excessive near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor Wed/Wed Night, we should be able to take the additional rainfall across our northwest half on Thu without too much in the way of widespread flooding impacts.
Pivoting to Friday and the upcoming Memorial Holiday Weekend, deterministic models are in pretty good agreement without too much in the way of widespread precipitation chances, instead, slight chance/low end chance variety pops will be tied to diurnal heating. Having said that, the upper flow pattern will remain west southwesterly and thus, the pop forecast confidence remains a low one for the upcoming weekend into Memorial Day. One thing that is a little more certain is the weekend heat with high temperatures likely in the middle 90s at least near and south of the I-20 Corridor with heat indices well into the triple digits but just under Heat Advisory Criteria of 105 degrees.
There still appears to be a pattern shift beyond Memorial Day next week as upper ridging appears to become dominate across the Intermountain West with troughing developing across the Great Lakes, into the Ohio and Tenn Valleys. This should result in a cooler pattern for our region with a frontal passage sometime on Memorial Day or into Monday Night with obviously chance pops tied to the front itself.
13
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Low clouds and MVFR ceilings will persist across portions of East Texas and Western Louisiana along and south of Interstate 20 for the first few hours of the TAF period. However, flight conditions should gradually improve back into the VFR range before 21/18z.
More low clouds and MVFR/IFR flight conditions are expected to rapidly spread across the region during the after 22/04z, likely affecting most TAF sites. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may also affect Southeast Oklahoma and portions of Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas in the 21/23z-22/06z time frame. KTXK and KTYR are the most likely TAF sites to be affected, but confidence is currently too low to mention thunderstorms in the TAFs.
CN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 93 77 91 74 / 0 10 20 30 MLU 92 73 89 71 / 0 10 20 20 DEQ 89 71 85 67 / 10 30 70 70 TXK 92 75 90 70 / 10 20 60 60 ELD 91 73 88 68 / 0 10 40 40 TYR 91 76 90 73 / 10 20 30 30 GGG 91 76 90 73 / 10 20 20 30 LFK 91 76 90 73 / 10 10 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBAD BARKSDALE AFB,LA | 10 sm | 56 min | SSE 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 68°F | 94% | 29.84 | |
| KSHV SHREVEPORT RGNL,LA | 13 sm | 49 min | SSE 06 | 6 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Mist | 73°F | 70°F | 89% | 29.85 |
| KDTN SHREVEPORT DOWNTOWN,LA | 14 sm | 23 min | SSE 07 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 73°F | 70°F | 89% | 29.85 |
Shreveport, LA,
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