Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Payne Springs, TX
May 17, 2024 7:00 PM CDT (00:00 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:25 AM Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 2:07 PM Moonset 2:17 AM |
Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KFWD 172351 AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 651 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
New Short Term, Aviation
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Tonight and Tomorrow/
Isolated thunderstorms are expected across parts of North Texas for the next couple hours. A shortwave trough is interacting with a weak surface boundary just to the southeast of the Metroplex. We have had a few weak updrafts produce light rain showers in parts of Ellis and Kaufman counties earlier in the afternoon, but not much more than that due to the weak updrafts being unable to overcome substantial dry air entrainment. Over the next couple hours, we expect some updrafts to be more successful and develop into a few thunderstorms. The shortwave trough itself may also produce an isolated shower or two across far North Texas this evening, but the chance of this occurring is only around 20%.
All precip should end between 9PM and midnight.
Mostly clear skies are expected tonight with light surface winds.
The aforementioned surface boundary will wash out and allow south flow to return at all locations by midnight. This will start to subtly nudge better moisture north through the early morning hours. Clear skies, light winds, damp/wet soils, and the subtle increase of moisture should allow for patchy fog to develop across the eastern parts of our forecast area early tomorrow morning. Fog is most likely, and may be dense in spots, across eastern Central Texas where we are forecasting a 3-4 degree crossover temperature.
The fog would be shallow and burn off by mid-morning.
Late spring heat returns tomorrow with most locations topping out in the low 90s and heat index values a couple degrees above the ambient temperature. Unfortunately, the winds will remain light, making it feel even hotter.
Bonnette
LONG TERM
/Issued 256 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024/ /Saturday Night Onward/
A mid level ridge will create above-normal temperatures across the board late weekend through early next week. Increasing southerly low level flow will simultaneously increase dewpoints by drawing Gulf moisture northward through the region. A hot and humid stretch can hence be expected for the first half of the week, with Tuesday likely being the most oppressive as heat indices peak around 100 in the afternoon.
Despite the heat, the ridge will begin to weaken on Tuesday as a pair shortwaves traverse the Plains. The first will send a weak cold front southward to near the Red River on Tuesday, likely bolstering the afternoon heat due to compressional warming south of the front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, but most of this activity will remain north of the Red River. The second shortwave will push the front farther south into the forecast area on Wednesday. The front will provide focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon and evening. Some storms may end up being severe based on the 40+ kt of deep layer shear and good instability being advertised by model guidance over the past few days. Another round of convection appears likely on Thursday as a third shortwave passes through the Southern Plains, with a few storms again possibly being strong to severe. The presence of the surface boundary may also lead to training storms and localized flooding.
With all that said, it is still too soon to delve into the specifics regarding timing and intensity, but we will gather more details as higher resolution guidance is received over the next few days. The ridge will restrengthen next Friday, returning the region to warm and humid weather to end the week. A slight chance of storms may return next weekend as mid range guidance hints at some possible dryline activity during the final week of May.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/
North flow will continue for the next few hours at the D10 terminals. Isolated storms are also expected east/southeast of D10 that will likely cause minor deviations for EBND departures and Cedar Creek arrivals. All storms should dissipate between 03-06Z.
The winds will become very light after 01Z with prevailing south flow returning by 04-05Z at all terminals. VFR is expected, but there may be some patchy fog in the early morning hours east of the D10 and ACT terminals.
Bonnette
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 92 71 91 73 / 10 0 0 0 0 Waco 65 89 69 88 69 / 10 0 0 0 0 Paris 63 87 66 88 69 / 20 0 0 0 0 Denton 64 91 68 91 71 / 20 0 0 0 0 McKinney 65 90 68 90 71 / 20 0 0 0 0 Dallas 67 92 71 91 73 / 10 0 0 0 0 Terrell 64 89 68 88 69 / 20 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 66 90 70 90 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 Temple 65 89 68 88 69 / 5 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 63 92 68 91 71 / 5 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 651 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
New Short Term, Aviation
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Tonight and Tomorrow/
Isolated thunderstorms are expected across parts of North Texas for the next couple hours. A shortwave trough is interacting with a weak surface boundary just to the southeast of the Metroplex. We have had a few weak updrafts produce light rain showers in parts of Ellis and Kaufman counties earlier in the afternoon, but not much more than that due to the weak updrafts being unable to overcome substantial dry air entrainment. Over the next couple hours, we expect some updrafts to be more successful and develop into a few thunderstorms. The shortwave trough itself may also produce an isolated shower or two across far North Texas this evening, but the chance of this occurring is only around 20%.
All precip should end between 9PM and midnight.
Mostly clear skies are expected tonight with light surface winds.
The aforementioned surface boundary will wash out and allow south flow to return at all locations by midnight. This will start to subtly nudge better moisture north through the early morning hours. Clear skies, light winds, damp/wet soils, and the subtle increase of moisture should allow for patchy fog to develop across the eastern parts of our forecast area early tomorrow morning. Fog is most likely, and may be dense in spots, across eastern Central Texas where we are forecasting a 3-4 degree crossover temperature.
The fog would be shallow and burn off by mid-morning.
Late spring heat returns tomorrow with most locations topping out in the low 90s and heat index values a couple degrees above the ambient temperature. Unfortunately, the winds will remain light, making it feel even hotter.
Bonnette
LONG TERM
/Issued 256 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024/ /Saturday Night Onward/
A mid level ridge will create above-normal temperatures across the board late weekend through early next week. Increasing southerly low level flow will simultaneously increase dewpoints by drawing Gulf moisture northward through the region. A hot and humid stretch can hence be expected for the first half of the week, with Tuesday likely being the most oppressive as heat indices peak around 100 in the afternoon.
Despite the heat, the ridge will begin to weaken on Tuesday as a pair shortwaves traverse the Plains. The first will send a weak cold front southward to near the Red River on Tuesday, likely bolstering the afternoon heat due to compressional warming south of the front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, but most of this activity will remain north of the Red River. The second shortwave will push the front farther south into the forecast area on Wednesday. The front will provide focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon and evening. Some storms may end up being severe based on the 40+ kt of deep layer shear and good instability being advertised by model guidance over the past few days. Another round of convection appears likely on Thursday as a third shortwave passes through the Southern Plains, with a few storms again possibly being strong to severe. The presence of the surface boundary may also lead to training storms and localized flooding.
With all that said, it is still too soon to delve into the specifics regarding timing and intensity, but we will gather more details as higher resolution guidance is received over the next few days. The ridge will restrengthen next Friday, returning the region to warm and humid weather to end the week. A slight chance of storms may return next weekend as mid range guidance hints at some possible dryline activity during the final week of May.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/
North flow will continue for the next few hours at the D10 terminals. Isolated storms are also expected east/southeast of D10 that will likely cause minor deviations for EBND departures and Cedar Creek arrivals. All storms should dissipate between 03-06Z.
The winds will become very light after 01Z with prevailing south flow returning by 04-05Z at all terminals. VFR is expected, but there may be some patchy fog in the early morning hours east of the D10 and ACT terminals.
Bonnette
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 92 71 91 73 / 10 0 0 0 0 Waco 65 89 69 88 69 / 10 0 0 0 0 Paris 63 87 66 88 69 / 20 0 0 0 0 Denton 64 91 68 91 71 / 20 0 0 0 0 McKinney 65 90 68 90 71 / 20 0 0 0 0 Dallas 67 92 71 91 73 / 10 0 0 0 0 Terrell 64 89 68 88 69 / 20 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 66 90 70 90 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 Temple 65 89 68 88 69 / 5 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 63 92 68 91 71 / 5 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCRS C DAVID CAMPBELL FIELDCORSICANA MUNI,TX | 24 sm | 67 min | S 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 82°F | 64°F | 55% | 29.76 |
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE