Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 5:27 PM   Moonset 3:34 AM

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FXUS64 KJAN 211657 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1157 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

New AVIATION

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

No major adjustments were needed for the current forecast through tonight. There is however an increasing chance for shower and thunderstorm activity over Arkansas tomorrow to push southeast into portions of our forecast area. POPs and weather have been adjusted through tomorrow afternoon to account for this possibility. /NF/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 410 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Today through tonight: Another dry day with above normal temperatures is expected as the subtropical ridge axis extending from Mexico into the Lower Mississippi Valley region crosses our area. At the surface, high pressure will shift to our east, and this will result in a tightening pressure gradient and increased surface wind gusts during peak heating. Fog will continue to be a concern during the early morning hours over the Pine Belt region, and have kept the mention of dense fog in the graphics. /EC/

Wednesday into early next week...

Early morning global guidance continues to highlight a strong 983 mb low pressure system tracking northeast towards the Great Lakes- southern Canada through Wednesday morning. As the sfc low shifts towards southern Canada, model consensus indicate height falls along the northern extent of the subtropical ridge across the Mid South to the Gulf Coast States. Because of this, a frontal boundary will start to shift southward across these zone with further northern extension into the Ohio Valley and the Upper East Coast.

Overall, model guidance appears to be in alignment with the placement of the frontal boundary heading into Wednesday evening/Wednesday night. There is some slight discrepancies with the guidance as the Euro shows the frontal boundary clipping extreme northwest ArkLaMiss Delta area slightly faster than the GFS. Nevertheless, the combination of southerly return flow, increased moist ascent, and limited deep shear >40kts will help support a low end threat of isolated strong-severe storms with damaging winds and hail up to quarter size being the primary concerns. The threat for isolated severe storms will continue across most of the Delta as we head into Thursday. We maintained a Marginal Risk (1 out 5)in the HWO graphic for both days with most of the severe threat diminishing around late Thursday evening.

Giving the increasing humidity, warm temperatures, and presence of a nearby frontal boundary, storm chances will continue for the northern areas. Guidance consensus highlights multiple decent waves moving across the forecast area as we head into the weekend.
Forecast confidence at this time remains low. We will continue to monitor trends and will provide updates as we get closer to the weekend and model data becomes available. Heading into the next work week, a large scale trough will begin to set up across the eastern CONUS. This trough will help push a cool front and dry air into our CWA with rain chance starting to decrease by the middle of next week. /CR/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 10Z. Patchy to dense BR/FG will be possible for PIB/HBG from 10Z-14Z, in addition to IFR cigs. VFR conditions should prevail after 14z. Winds are expected to remain southerly from 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20 mph through 0z. /AJ/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 69 88 70 89 / 0 10 10 10 Meridian 66 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 69 89 71 91 / 0 20 10 10 Hattiesburg 67 89 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 68 88 70 90 / 0 10 10 0 Greenville 73 89 71 89 / 10 40 30 20 Greenwood 71 89 71 89 / 0 20 20 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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