Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 6:20 PM   Moonset 4:28 AM

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FXUS64 KJAN 212345 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 645 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow:

Rain chances should hold off in our forecast area until probably tomorrow afternoon. Drier air associated with a surface high pressure centered over the Southeast CONUS and ridge axis aloft will keep conditions fairly quiet until then. The high pressure and increasing low-level humidity overnight will lead to a chance for fog centered on the Pine Belt in southeast MS early Wednesday morning. HRRR probabilities are in the 30-50% range for areas south of Interstate 20, but forecast soundings also suggest it could be more of a brief fog threat before fog lifts to a low stratus deck. Will highlight with a Limited threat area for patchy dense fog at this point, and we'll monitor trends into the evening. We should see high temps in the upper 80s to near 90 degree range again tomorrow, especially south of any possible afternoon showers or storms. At this time, guidance has trended a little farther southeast with the potential storms moving into our area tomorrow, which makes sense as a moisture and instability axis tilts east to cover AR and portions of northern LA and MS.
There is a Marginal Risk from far northeast LA into northeast MS, but trends support a Slight Risk for better chances of severe storms into northwest MS. Generally expect the time frame of around 3 PM tomorrow afternoon to 3 AM Thursday morning to have potential severe storms as a wave or two of storms are triggered to our west and spread through the instability axis. Have tweaked the current hazardous weather outlook graphics accordingly. /NF/

Thursday through Tuesday:

There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms again on Thursday, with a similar synoptic setup in place. Realistically, the chance for strong to severe storms resulting from daytime and evening convection will extend through the weekend. Above-normal heights associated with the upper-level ridge will retreat southward over the Gulf of Mexico as broad longwave troughing dominates the western and central CONUS. Disturbances rippling out of this wave across the country will provide the support for this mainly diurnal activity to organize and progress eastward each day. Any particular afternoon, areas around the US Highway 82 corridor have the greatest chances for storms through this time, though I wouldn't rule out the chance anywhere. A southern jet stream over the region should add the flow needed for possible organized wind threat with any deep convection. Then as we move from Monday into Tuesday, a cold front should sweep southeast through the region.
This front will also carry a threat for strong to severe storms, but it's too far out to have confidence on the timing right now.
Before the front arrives, Sunday and Monday look to be HOT. The possibility of 105-110 heat index values will put residents under the threat of dangerous heat stress. Will likely need graphics if it appears that widespread rain will hold off those days. /NF/

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

All TAF sites are currently VFR and most sites will remain VFR through the period. Stratus/fog may develop across the Pine Belt region and bring MVFR/IFR conditions to HBG/PIB early Wednesday morning. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 90 69 88 69 / 0 0 10 10 Meridian 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 92 69 89 71 / 0 0 20 20 Hattiesburg 91 67 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 90 68 88 69 / 0 0 10 10 Greenville 92 73 89 72 / 0 10 40 50 Greenwood 91 71 89 70 / 0 0 20 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

Lower Hall Landing
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Tue -- 12:34 AM CDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:26 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:35 PM CDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:13 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:43 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
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Tue -- 04:27 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:19 AM CDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:14 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:14 PM CDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama, Tide feet

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Jackson/Brandon, MS,