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FXUS64 KFWD 220048 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 748 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: A few convective attempts occurred along the dryline over the past couple of hours, but due to lacking ascent with only the dryline present as a lifting mechanism, updrafts have largely been unable to achieve deep convection despite robust instability. There is still a small window for our western zones over the next hour or two for an isolated storm with a hail threat, but these chances are around 20% or less. Otherwise, remnant shower activity from midday thunderstorms will steadily progress through parts of Central and East Texas the rest of this evening, but this precipitation will also subside with loss of heating. Overall, a quiet overnight period is forecast in terms of convective chances.
Renewed thunderstorm activity still appears likely as early as tomorrow morning as a frontal boundary sags southward to the OK/TX border, with additional deep convection developing along the dryline in conjunction with stronger mid- level dynamic ascent later in the day. All severe hazards will be possible tomorrow with perhaps two or three different rounds/areas of strong severe convection from late morning through tomorrow night. This is covered in further detail in the previous discussion below.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday Night/

Low cloud cover will gradually improve through the rest of the day as daytime mixing continues across the region. This will allow skies to clear out, leading to afternoon highs across North and Central Texas to rise into the upper 80s and low to mid 90s. Something interesting to note is the gravity wave feature that is currently moving through portions of North and Central Texas. This appears to have increased mixing in the lower levels just enough to allow the cap to erode a bit, as per the latest ACARS soundings. We are already beginning to see convective attempts late this morning, with a few elevated showers and storms already firing off. As we move into the afternoon, increasing instability and a sharpening dryline across our west will allow for a continued low chance for isolated severe thunderstorms. Because of this, a mention of thunderstorms will be maintained through the late evening, with a quick improvement overnight as any convective activity should wane rapidly after sunset. That being said, these storms will be highly conditional. This will mainly hinge on how the cap evolves through the rest of day and how strong it will through this afternoon and evening as the dryline pushes into the region.

Overall confidence in the exact coverage, timing, and location of these storms this afternoon and evening is low. Given the latest hi-res guidance, initial convective attempts will continue through around 4 to 6 PM this afternoon. Any storms that do manage to fully develop will likely have large hail and damaging winds associated with them. Increasing CIN will return across the region after sunset as the EML is reestablished and the capping inversion strengthens once again thanks to cooling within the nocturnal boundary layer.

Our attention then turns to Wednesday, when our next round of strong to severe storms will move through the region. This activity will be much more widespread thanks to better forcing for ascent associated with a trough that is located across the Western CONUS. A couple of pieces of energy in the form of shortwave pulses embedded within the parent trough to our west will push across portions of North and Central Texas through Wednesday evening. Increasing coverage may start as early as Wednesday morning, with this trend continuing as we move into the afternoon and evening. This activity will generally be associated with an approaching cold front and the dryline. Any storms that develop through Wednesday will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, with a lower threat for tornadoes. This tornado threat will be generally focused along a surface boundary that will be present somewhere across North or Central Texas. In addition, renewed flooding concerns may arise through tomorrow night as well, which will be worth watching. Exact coverage regarding specific locations will still need to be narrowed down in future updates as confidence hopefully increases with more hi- res model runs through tomorrow.

Reeves

LONG TERM
/Issued 230 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024/ Update: The previous long term forecast remains largely unchanged. We'll have another potential for severe weather on Thursday, which is detailed in the previous discussion below. Several additional chances for showers and storms are expected through early next week, with perhaps additional opportunities for severe weather both Friday and Saturday. Stay weather-aware, especially if you have any outdoor plans over the holiday weekend. Additionally, with the heat and humidity cranking up this weekend, ensure you practice heat safety. Wear light-colored clothing, drink hydrating fluids, and take frequent breaks in an air-conditioned space.

Barnes

Previous Discussion: /Wednesday Onward/

A cold front will sag south into North Texas on Wednesday as a shortwave sweeps across the Plains. A few storm clusters may be ongoing around daybreak Wednesday as the front crosses the Red River, with activity dissipating mid to late morning as the low level jet mixes out. The front will likely stall somewhere between I-20 and the Red River, providing focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon as the right entrance region of a 90kt jet approaches from the west. Strong flow aloft (and the resulting deep layer shear) combined with good instability will lead to some of these storm becoming severe with large hail and damaging winds both possible. The presence of the surface front may also enhance the tornado threat at times, though a persistent warm layer at 850 to 700mb will hopefully mitigate tornado development.

Thunderstorms (some severe) will continue into Wednesday evening, with the best storm chances being along and north of I-20 near the surface front. PWats near 2 inches will also allow for locally heavy rain in thunderstorms, and flooding may become an issue where any training convection may occur. Storms will begin to wind down around midnight Wednesday night, with activity eventually dissipating during the overnight hours.

Thunderstorms will redevelop on Thursday as a shortwave trough passes overhead, with the surface boundary (along with other possible mesoscale boundaries from Wednesday convection) providing a focus for development. Shear and instability will be more than sufficient for severe thunderstorms, with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes possible. Some deterministic guidance in fact indicates a higher tornado threat for Thursday, but I would like to see better resolution guidance in the form of convection allowing models (which will arrive later today through Wednesday) before ramping up the tornado messaging. The persistent warm layer could also work against tornado development.
In any case storms will continue into Thursday evening, with the best rain chances again being along and north of I-20 near the surface boundary. That being said, any southward shift in the front itself or in any mesoscale boundary could shift the better storm chances southward into Central Texas.

Activity will dissipate overnight Thursday night, giving way to a hot and humid Friday. Dewpoints in the lower 70s and highs in the lower to middle 90s will yield 100+ degree heat indices Friday afternoon, with the front having lifted well north of the Red River by then. The heat will continue through the weekend, with parts of Central Texas possibly reaching Heat Advisory criteria on Saturday.

There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday afternoons associated with the dryline. Though storm coverage may remain isolated, each storm which manages to develop would likely become severe. A deepening low over the Great Lakes will send a cold front southward into the region once again on Monday, providing some relief from the heat along with a slight chance of storms for Memorial Day. At this time, it looks like the front will push through the entire region, leading to warm but drier weather next Tuesday through the midweek period of next week.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00z TAFs/

Isolated dissipating convection exists across southern portions of D10 into East Texas as of this writing. Additional convective attempts have been in progress west of D10 along a surface dryline, but radar and satellite imagery depict a less impressive cumulus field by the minute, and this potential is waning with loss of heating. Will not indicate any TS activity the rest of this evening with a quiet overnight period expected. MVFR cigs are expected to return around 8-10z before scattering occurs by mid morning. Widespread convection is likely to impact all airports beginning as early as 16-17z tomorrow, but will become more likely later in the afternoon and evening. In addition to aviation impacts due to lightning, some strong and severe storms are expected with threats for hail and damaging winds.

-Stalley


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 89 71 87 74 / 30 60 60 40 20 Waco 76 89 73 88 74 / 20 40 50 20 10 Paris 72 85 68 83 70 / 30 80 70 50 40 Denton 73 86 67 86 71 / 30 70 60 40 20 McKinney 74 87 69 85 73 / 30 60 60 40 20 Dallas 76 89 71 87 73 / 30 60 60 40 20 Terrell 74 87 71 86 73 / 30 60 60 30 20 Corsicana 76 90 73 89 75 / 20 40 60 20 10 Temple 75 90 73 88 74 / 10 40 30 20 5 Mineral Wells 73 87 68 87 73 / 30 60 50 40 10

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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