Sunrise 6:42 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 2:25 PM   Moonset 2:33 AM

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FXUS64 KSJT 180002 AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 702 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 658 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Isolated thunderstorms have developed across northern Kerr and northern Edwards County. These storms have are drifting northeast and are moving into southeast Kimble County. This activity may move into portions of Mason County over the next hour or so, so have expanded slight chance PoPs northward slightly. These storms will have the potential of producing hail and gusty winds, with some of this activity approaching severe criteria. Most of this activity should begin to weaken shortly after sunset.

Daniels

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Temperatures this afternoon are around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon north of I-10, thanks to the clear skies and increased sunshine. We could see a few isolated storms late this afternoon and evening as the upper level short wave moves east over our area. Any thunderstorms that develop will likely be in our southern counties, near I-10, with a smaller chance of storms further north. It is May in Texas, so we can't completely rule out severe thunderstorms, but the chance for severe weather is lower today compared to yesterday, and most of the activity (if any develops) is expected to remain below severe thresholds. Winds will become light and start to switch back to the south this evening and overnight as a high pressure builds at the surface to our southeast.
Temperatures tomorrow will continue to increase as an upper level ridge begins to build over the area. Highs will be almost 10 degrees above normal, with values approaching 100 in some areas.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Hot and dry conditions will be the theme for much of the long term forecast, at least through Wednesday next with the approach of another cold front on Wednesday and upper-level disturbance on Thursday bringing an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms mid-to-late next week. High temperatures across the weekend are likely to range in the upper 90s to near 103 in some areas for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. General upper level ridging will build across the area through Tuesday next week, with breezy southerly surface flow persisting across much of the region through Wednesday morning.

What looks to be a weaker cold front will track through West Central Texas on Wednesday, mainly moderating temperatures but potentially bringing some showers and thunderstorms to the eastern portions of our area. By Thursday, an upper-level disturbance will track from west to east across the area and aide in the development of some showers and thunderstorms across much of West Central Texas. Currently, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in both of these scenarios, especially with regards to coverage and strength, but is it something that most models are beginning to agree on.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 82 60 93 68 / 10 10 0 0 San Angelo 85 59 98 70 / 0 10 0 0 Junction 88 61 98 70 / 10 20 0 0 Brownwood 80 60 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 82 61 96 69 / 10 0 0 0 Ozona 87 60 97 69 / 10 10 0 0 Brady 82 61 93 68 / 0 10 0 0

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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San Angelo, TX,