Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lexington, TX
May 21, 2024 8:13 AM CDT (13:13 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:29 AM Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 5:51 PM Moonset 4:04 AM |
Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KEWX 211141 AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 641 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
An upper ridge over TX is leaning east into LA while a mostly zonal SW aloft pattern maintains more arid conditions over the western part of TX while deeper Gulf moisture holds over the eastern part.
Low clouds will cover nearly all areas at daybreak while dry mid level air will become part of the mixed layer in the midday hours, leading to a mostly sunny sky in the afternoon. In keeping with a blend of persistence and a mix of raw data for the dew point, the values fall a good bit in the afternoon, which should prevent most areas from reaching heat index values associated with an advisory.
The hottest areas to the southwest will get close though. A few pockets of 108+ heat index values can't be ruled out in Frio and Atascosa counties. The majority of our eastern criteria areas will remain in the lower 100s, and the western criteria areas in the 105 to 109 range mainly today and not Wednesday. Since the hotter pattern is expected for Friday into the weekend, we'll stop shy of posting the advisory and go the SPS route today and likely again tomorrow.
There is a nonzero chance of thunderstorms in the area where the dry air mixing hits a deeper layer of gulf moisture. This line will probably mix as far east as Llano county, but could retreat west in the evening. Another uncertainty is if there is any embedded shortwave activity lifting out underneath the high cloudiness areas from Mexico. Convective allowing models on the SPC page are quite varied with most going for an isolated storm or two impacting our counties while keeping most of the activity to the north. Since this area can't be refined in this model cycle and since the HRRR and Tech WRF are showing little or no activity, we'll just settle on that and keep the messaging going that an isolated strong to severe storm should be considered over a broad area of our northern and/or western counties.
The messaging for storm chances is more distinct with a cold front spawning convection and outflow boundaries over North Central Texas and moving the convective focus southward into our counties in the late afternoon or early evening. The broader coverage of this is expected to be in the early part of the long term, but in short, this could be escalated into a higher impact category of severe potential as depicted in the depiction of severity types by the SPC over North TX.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Key Messages
* Level 1 to 2 out of 5 risk for isolated severe storms late Wednesday afternoon and evening across portions of the northern Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande * Dangerous heat late this week - those spending extended time outdoors and not acclimated to the early season heat could be susceptible to heat related illness if not taking proper heat precautions.
Isolated showers and storms will be possible late Wednesday afternoon through the evening hours along the dryline across the southern Edwards Plateau and along the Rio Grande. In addition scattered storms will be possible just to our north Wednesday afternoon, across central Texas where the dryline and weak front intersect. Wednesday evening a few of these storms could make it into the far northern Hill Country, or associated outflows spawning new storms. SPC has placed portions of the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country in a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening, and a Level 2 out of 5 risk encompasses into Llano and Burnet Counties. The primary threats will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. The southern extent of the convective risk is in question, and future outlooks may have to be trimmed back out of the Coastal Plains and portions of the southern I-35 corridor which are farther removed from the forcing.
The dryline Thursday and Friday looks to make slightly farther eastward progression each afternoon, with low (10-20%) chances for isolated storms in the afternoon and evening confined at this time to far northeast portions of the Hill Country and central Texas.
Otherwise, continued well above normal temperatures with periods of hazy conditions east of the dryline. Heat-related impacts are forecast to increase each day, peaking Friday through the weekend.
During this peak, very hot afternoon temperatures of 106 to 111 degrees are forecast along the Rio Grande and U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio, west of the dryline. East of the dryline, high temperatures in the upper 90s to around 102 degrees are foreast Friday through the weekend. Elevated dew points east of the dryline, influences from evapotranspiration where better spring rainfall has occurred, and the early nature of the summer heat will result in an increased risk for heat impacts. The new NWS Heat Risk indicates an increase into the major to extreme categories Friday through the weekend for most areas outside of the Hill Country. Heat Advisory headlines will likely be needed for portions for the area by Friday.
Those spending extended time outdoors and not acclimated to the early season heat could be susceptible to heat related illness if not taking proper heat precautions.
The upper level pattern shifts Monday as a ridge develops across the western U.S. and trough digs through the central U.S. This may allow a weak cold front to slip into the area sometime Monday into Tuesday of next week, although confidence is low on timing and how far south the front makes it given the strength of the upper level ridge just to the south.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
A somewhat repetitive pattern of low cloud mornings and mostly clear afternoons and evenings are expected. This morning there are a few cigs around SAT flirting with IFR, but most of the obs have been in the MVFR category. Improvement to VFR should occur by 16Z or 17Z as the most layer remains shallow. Some gusty afternoon breezes could again get over 20 knots at times, but there is a general trend of lowering wind speeds forecast over the next 24 hours.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 94 76 93 75 / 0 0 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 94 76 93 74 / 0 10 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 96 76 96 75 / 0 0 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 92 74 90 73 / 10 10 20 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 103 81 103 80 / 10 10 10 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 92 76 92 73 / 10 10 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 99 76 98 74 / 0 0 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 94 75 94 74 / 0 0 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 76 91 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 96 76 96 76 / 0 0 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 97 77 97 76 / 0 0 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 641 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
An upper ridge over TX is leaning east into LA while a mostly zonal SW aloft pattern maintains more arid conditions over the western part of TX while deeper Gulf moisture holds over the eastern part.
Low clouds will cover nearly all areas at daybreak while dry mid level air will become part of the mixed layer in the midday hours, leading to a mostly sunny sky in the afternoon. In keeping with a blend of persistence and a mix of raw data for the dew point, the values fall a good bit in the afternoon, which should prevent most areas from reaching heat index values associated with an advisory.
The hottest areas to the southwest will get close though. A few pockets of 108+ heat index values can't be ruled out in Frio and Atascosa counties. The majority of our eastern criteria areas will remain in the lower 100s, and the western criteria areas in the 105 to 109 range mainly today and not Wednesday. Since the hotter pattern is expected for Friday into the weekend, we'll stop shy of posting the advisory and go the SPS route today and likely again tomorrow.
There is a nonzero chance of thunderstorms in the area where the dry air mixing hits a deeper layer of gulf moisture. This line will probably mix as far east as Llano county, but could retreat west in the evening. Another uncertainty is if there is any embedded shortwave activity lifting out underneath the high cloudiness areas from Mexico. Convective allowing models on the SPC page are quite varied with most going for an isolated storm or two impacting our counties while keeping most of the activity to the north. Since this area can't be refined in this model cycle and since the HRRR and Tech WRF are showing little or no activity, we'll just settle on that and keep the messaging going that an isolated strong to severe storm should be considered over a broad area of our northern and/or western counties.
The messaging for storm chances is more distinct with a cold front spawning convection and outflow boundaries over North Central Texas and moving the convective focus southward into our counties in the late afternoon or early evening. The broader coverage of this is expected to be in the early part of the long term, but in short, this could be escalated into a higher impact category of severe potential as depicted in the depiction of severity types by the SPC over North TX.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
Key Messages
* Level 1 to 2 out of 5 risk for isolated severe storms late Wednesday afternoon and evening across portions of the northern Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande * Dangerous heat late this week - those spending extended time outdoors and not acclimated to the early season heat could be susceptible to heat related illness if not taking proper heat precautions.
Isolated showers and storms will be possible late Wednesday afternoon through the evening hours along the dryline across the southern Edwards Plateau and along the Rio Grande. In addition scattered storms will be possible just to our north Wednesday afternoon, across central Texas where the dryline and weak front intersect. Wednesday evening a few of these storms could make it into the far northern Hill Country, or associated outflows spawning new storms. SPC has placed portions of the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country in a Level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening, and a Level 2 out of 5 risk encompasses into Llano and Burnet Counties. The primary threats will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. The southern extent of the convective risk is in question, and future outlooks may have to be trimmed back out of the Coastal Plains and portions of the southern I-35 corridor which are farther removed from the forcing.
The dryline Thursday and Friday looks to make slightly farther eastward progression each afternoon, with low (10-20%) chances for isolated storms in the afternoon and evening confined at this time to far northeast portions of the Hill Country and central Texas.
Otherwise, continued well above normal temperatures with periods of hazy conditions east of the dryline. Heat-related impacts are forecast to increase each day, peaking Friday through the weekend.
During this peak, very hot afternoon temperatures of 106 to 111 degrees are forecast along the Rio Grande and U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio, west of the dryline. East of the dryline, high temperatures in the upper 90s to around 102 degrees are foreast Friday through the weekend. Elevated dew points east of the dryline, influences from evapotranspiration where better spring rainfall has occurred, and the early nature of the summer heat will result in an increased risk for heat impacts. The new NWS Heat Risk indicates an increase into the major to extreme categories Friday through the weekend for most areas outside of the Hill Country. Heat Advisory headlines will likely be needed for portions for the area by Friday.
Those spending extended time outdoors and not acclimated to the early season heat could be susceptible to heat related illness if not taking proper heat precautions.
The upper level pattern shifts Monday as a ridge develops across the western U.S. and trough digs through the central U.S. This may allow a weak cold front to slip into the area sometime Monday into Tuesday of next week, although confidence is low on timing and how far south the front makes it given the strength of the upper level ridge just to the south.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024
A somewhat repetitive pattern of low cloud mornings and mostly clear afternoons and evenings are expected. This morning there are a few cigs around SAT flirting with IFR, but most of the obs have been in the MVFR category. Improvement to VFR should occur by 16Z or 17Z as the most layer remains shallow. Some gusty afternoon breezes could again get over 20 knots at times, but there is a general trend of lowering wind speeds forecast over the next 24 hours.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 94 76 93 75 / 0 0 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 94 76 93 74 / 0 10 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 96 76 96 75 / 0 0 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 92 74 90 73 / 10 10 20 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 103 81 103 80 / 10 10 10 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 92 76 92 73 / 10 10 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 99 76 98 74 / 0 0 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 94 75 94 74 / 0 0 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 76 91 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 96 76 96 76 / 0 0 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 97 77 97 76 / 0 0 10 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KGYB GIDDINGSLEE COUNTY,TX | 17 sm | 38 min | no data | 3 sm | Overcast | Mist | 79°F | 75°F | 89% | 29.84 |
| KRWV CALDWELL MUNI,TX | 18 sm | 23 min | SSE 05 | 5 sm | Overcast | Mist | 79°F | 75°F | 89% | 29.82 |
Central Texas,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE