Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 7:47 PM Moonrise 6:17 PM   Moonset 4:30 AM

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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 315 Am Cdt Tue May 21 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Saturday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet.

GMZ500 315 Am Cdt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure over the area will keep a persistent southeast wind of around 10 knots and relatively calm seas in place through the weekend.

FXUS64 KLIX 211119 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 619 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Little change in the ongoing pattern of deep layer ridging currently in place across the Gulf South is expected through Thursday night. The result of this deep layer ridging will be continued subsidence and warming through the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, and that warming will keep a strong mid- level capping inversion place through the period. This will result in a dry forecast through the period. At most, some scattered low topped cumulus development beneath the inversion will occur each afternoon as the low levels remain warm, humid, and unstable.
Temperatures will remain warmer than average due to the highly subsident airmass in place, and afternoon highs will easily climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight lows will also be above normal in the upper 60s and lower 70s as dewpoints remain elevated in the mid to upper 60s. Have opted to go with a blend of NBM 50th and 75th percentile values for the overnight lows. As low dip toward the diurnal minimum each morning, some patchy fog may develop over inland areas given the light boundary layer winds in place beneath the ridge.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Going into Friday continuing to be noticeably hotter as 591dm ridging remains parked over Mexico into the Gulf. This will keep highs pretty hot generally into the mid 90's and with the return of low to mid 70 Td's, will introduce building heat indicies into the upper 90's to low 100's especially going into Memorial Day Weekend.
Not seeing any excessive or dangerous heat indicies, but will be enough to be impactful for those outdoors for an extended period, especially given this being our first return of heat reaching these temperatures this season and many may not be too used to it just yet. Messaging going into the holiday weekend will be focused on taking precautions against the heat. Additionally, kept a warmer overnight low bias rolling with many areas not cooling much lower than the mid to upper 70's.

As for rain chances, still not seeing strong indications but as mentioned in yesterday's long-range discussion, will still need to keep an eye on the quasi-zonal flow aloft and subtle hints at weak mid-level impulses ridging from TX to the northern Gulf coast. No indications of any MCS or cluster in recent runs, but will need to keep an eye on it in case anything tries to sneak into atleast nearby our area. For now, rolling with NBM deterministic PoPs which keeps things dry for the most part this weekend. Some indications of a weak front arriving early next week, but that remains to be seen as far as rain coverage/chances and potential to counteract the heat some. Will keep an eye on that. KLG

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

A dry and stable airmass will remain in place at all of the terminals, and this will keep prevailing VFR conditions in place.
After 10z tomorrow, another weak inversion could form at MCB as temperatures cool in response to clear skies and light winds. A period of IFR ceilings around 300 feet and resultant reduced visibilties of around 3 miles could develop at MCB between 10z and 12z, and this is reflected in the forecast. PG

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Primarily a VFR forecast with only a very limited threat of fog around sunrise Tuesday. Will carry a TEMPO mention at KHUM and KMCB, but threat is non-zero elsewhere, just not high enough confidence to carry in the forecast. Any fog that does develop should rapidly dissipate around 14z. Other than some flat cumulus, don't expect much in the way of clouds tomorrow, either.

MARINE
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

The waters will continue to see a persistent southeasterly flow of around 10 knots through the weekend as high pressure dominates the northern Gulf. Seas will also be fairly consistent in the 1 to 3 feet range through the period, and there will be no risk of thunderstorm activity producing locally higher waves and seas. As a result, continued good boating conditions are anticipated through the upcoming holiday weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 88 68 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 91 71 90 72 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 88 71 88 73 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 88 73 87 75 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 86 73 85 74 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 86 71 85 72 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Biloxi
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Tue -- 04:31 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:25 AM CDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:16 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:46 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:11 PM CDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Biloxi, Biloxi Bay, Mississippi, Tide feet

Gulfport
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Tue -- 04:32 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:05 AM CDT     1.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:17 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:14 PM CDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gulfport, Gulfport Harbor, Mississippi, Tide feet

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