Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marshallberg, NC
May 21, 2024 4:11 PM ADT (19:11 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:15 AM Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 6:07 PM Moonset 4:22 AM |
AMZ065 Atlantic From 29n To 31n Between 70w And 74w- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - W of 72w, nw to N winds 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. E of 72w, nw winds 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 ft.
Tonight - NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
Wed - N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
Wed night - N winds 15 to 20 kt, shifting to N to ne 10 kt late. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Thu night - W winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Fri - NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
Fri night - NW to N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
Sat night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
AMZ005
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 211743 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 143 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through Thursday before the next potential frontal system moves through late week through the weekend and brings a return to unsettled weather.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 100 PM Tuesday...
- Increased risk of widespread dense fog again tonight
High pressure continues to nose south along the Mid-Atlantic Coast this afternoon, and will eventually shift over, or just offshore, of the ENC coastline through tonight. Low clouds from this morning have mostly mixed out, with the exception of the Outer Banks, where the low-level inversion is holding strong with the continued northeasterly onshore flow off the cooler waters of the Atlantic. Those clouds will probably not completely dissipated this afternoon, and I've held onto mostly cloudy skies there for most of the afternoon. Elsewhere, afternoon cumulus clouds will develop within the moistening return flow off the warmer Atlantic waters south of Hatteras.
Within that moistening flow, dewpoints are forecast to rise back into the 60s by this evening. Meanwhile, with high pressure overhead and light winds, T/Td spreads will quickly decrease, setting up what appears to be a solid signal for fog tonight.
Short-term guidance is showing a much stronger signal for fog compared to this morning, with probabilities of dense fog as high as 60-80%, especially across the coastal plain and OBX. The previous forecast handled this potential nicely, so no changes to the forecast or messaging are planned. Assuming confidence remains high, a Dense Fog Advisory will mostly likely be needed.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
As of 100 PM Tuesday...
- Trending warmer, but still dry, on Wednesday
Surface high pressure shifts further offshore on Wednesday, with lee- troughing developing east of the Appalachians. This will lead to a modest increase in southerly flow across the coastal Carolinas. The increased southerly flow plus warming thicknesses beneath ridging aloft will support high topping out 5-10 degrees higher than today. While instability will steadily build, it appears there will be enough of a cap beneath the ridge to keep the risk of afternoon convection very low. The one exception is along the central OBX where a coastal trough approaching from the east may support a few showers near, or just offshore by the afternoon.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure continues to build in from the north through Thursday. A series of shortwaves will come through the region Friday through the weekend, with a wetter and more unsettled end the long term.
Wednesday night through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. By Thu, temps rise to near 90 and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with low 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 60s.
Friday through Monday...High pressure shifts offshore to our west and more active pattern kicks in with multiple shortwaves impacting the region. Thundershowers possible with each of these waves with a warm/humid airmass in place, thanks to the high offshore. Rain chances ahead of the shortwave and frontal system early Friday have trended a bit drier, so kept PoPs generally at Schc, with highest values the further north you go.
After the front passes through, a series of shortwaves impact ENC, one on Friday night through Saturday, and another Monday into Monday night. Both of these shortwaves carry Chc PoPs with them. Followed closer to climo, and kept highest thunder chances in the afternoon and evening periods. At this point severe weather threat appears to be low through the weekend.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Today/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...
- Increased risk of IFR/LIFR conditions tonight (due to BR/FG)
High pressure will shift over the area this evening, then offshore by Wednesday morning. The developing return flow around the high will lead to an increasing layer of shallow moisture through tonight. As temp/dewpoint spreads decrease with light winds tonight, there will be an increased risk of dense fog developing. Short-term guidance is showing a much stronger signal for FG tonight, with a more widespread coverage likely.
Probabilistic guidance is showing a 60-80% chance of LIFR/IFR VIS in BR/FG tonight, and we'll trend the TAFs more pessimistically in this direction.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid week. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Friday onwards could result in lower vis and ceilings.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 1030 AM Tuesday...
- Dense fog threat continues for another 1-2 hours near the OBX - Dense fog threat returns tonight into Wednesday morning
High pressure will continue to nose into the area through tonight, then shift further away from the coast on Wednesday.
Light winds will allow seas to continue to lay down, with good boating conditions for most waters during the daylight hours.
The exception this afternoon will be the coastal waters from Duck south through Hatteras, where reduced visibilities continue for another 1-2 hours. After some improvement, it appears likely that another round of dense fog will impact much of the coastal waters tonight into Wednesday morning. Another Marine Dense Fog Advisory appears likely to cover this threat.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure will remain in control through Thursday morning, resulting in good boating conditions.
As the high moves offshore through the day Thursday, SW winds pick up, gusting near 20 kts Thursday afternoon/evening. Winds come back down a tad Thursday night, but multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms exist Friday through the weekend.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150- 152.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 143 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through Thursday before the next potential frontal system moves through late week through the weekend and brings a return to unsettled weather.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 100 PM Tuesday...
- Increased risk of widespread dense fog again tonight
High pressure continues to nose south along the Mid-Atlantic Coast this afternoon, and will eventually shift over, or just offshore, of the ENC coastline through tonight. Low clouds from this morning have mostly mixed out, with the exception of the Outer Banks, where the low-level inversion is holding strong with the continued northeasterly onshore flow off the cooler waters of the Atlantic. Those clouds will probably not completely dissipated this afternoon, and I've held onto mostly cloudy skies there for most of the afternoon. Elsewhere, afternoon cumulus clouds will develop within the moistening return flow off the warmer Atlantic waters south of Hatteras.
Within that moistening flow, dewpoints are forecast to rise back into the 60s by this evening. Meanwhile, with high pressure overhead and light winds, T/Td spreads will quickly decrease, setting up what appears to be a solid signal for fog tonight.
Short-term guidance is showing a much stronger signal for fog compared to this morning, with probabilities of dense fog as high as 60-80%, especially across the coastal plain and OBX. The previous forecast handled this potential nicely, so no changes to the forecast or messaging are planned. Assuming confidence remains high, a Dense Fog Advisory will mostly likely be needed.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
As of 100 PM Tuesday...
- Trending warmer, but still dry, on Wednesday
Surface high pressure shifts further offshore on Wednesday, with lee- troughing developing east of the Appalachians. This will lead to a modest increase in southerly flow across the coastal Carolinas. The increased southerly flow plus warming thicknesses beneath ridging aloft will support high topping out 5-10 degrees higher than today. While instability will steadily build, it appears there will be enough of a cap beneath the ridge to keep the risk of afternoon convection very low. The one exception is along the central OBX where a coastal trough approaching from the east may support a few showers near, or just offshore by the afternoon.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure continues to build in from the north through Thursday. A series of shortwaves will come through the region Friday through the weekend, with a wetter and more unsettled end the long term.
Wednesday night through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. By Thu, temps rise to near 90 and back above climo. In fact, some areas may flirt with low 90 degree highs by Thu. Lows will be in the 60s.
Friday through Monday...High pressure shifts offshore to our west and more active pattern kicks in with multiple shortwaves impacting the region. Thundershowers possible with each of these waves with a warm/humid airmass in place, thanks to the high offshore. Rain chances ahead of the shortwave and frontal system early Friday have trended a bit drier, so kept PoPs generally at Schc, with highest values the further north you go.
After the front passes through, a series of shortwaves impact ENC, one on Friday night through Saturday, and another Monday into Monday night. Both of these shortwaves carry Chc PoPs with them. Followed closer to climo, and kept highest thunder chances in the afternoon and evening periods. At this point severe weather threat appears to be low through the weekend.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Today/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...
- Increased risk of IFR/LIFR conditions tonight (due to BR/FG)
High pressure will shift over the area this evening, then offshore by Wednesday morning. The developing return flow around the high will lead to an increasing layer of shallow moisture through tonight. As temp/dewpoint spreads decrease with light winds tonight, there will be an increased risk of dense fog developing. Short-term guidance is showing a much stronger signal for FG tonight, with a more widespread coverage likely.
Probabilistic guidance is showing a 60-80% chance of LIFR/IFR VIS in BR/FG tonight, and we'll trend the TAFs more pessimistically in this direction.
LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid week. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Friday onwards could result in lower vis and ceilings.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 1030 AM Tuesday...
- Dense fog threat continues for another 1-2 hours near the OBX - Dense fog threat returns tonight into Wednesday morning
High pressure will continue to nose into the area through tonight, then shift further away from the coast on Wednesday.
Light winds will allow seas to continue to lay down, with good boating conditions for most waters during the daylight hours.
The exception this afternoon will be the coastal waters from Duck south through Hatteras, where reduced visibilities continue for another 1-2 hours. After some improvement, it appears likely that another round of dense fog will impact much of the coastal waters tonight into Wednesday morning. Another Marine Dense Fog Advisory appears likely to cover this threat.
LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure will remain in control through Thursday morning, resulting in good boating conditions.
As the high moves offshore through the day Thursday, SW winds pick up, gusting near 20 kts Thursday afternoon/evening. Winds come back down a tad Thursday night, but multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms exist Friday through the weekend.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ150- 152.
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Morehead City, NC,
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