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FXUS64 KEWX 180047 AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 747 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 747 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Have expanded showers and thunderstorms farther to the east across the Hill Country and Rio Grande Plains to Winter Garden areas.
Sounding data indicates a potential for a few strong to severe storms and these have been realized. Expect activity to dissipate shortly after sunset with loss of heating and passage of upper level low.

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The primary mid-level trough axis is in the process of advancing through the region today. The rain across our southern zones this morning has mainly shifted farther to the south into the CRP and HGX CWAs. However, our southern areas may still see a shower or storm clip the area into and through the afternoon. As a northwesterly flow aloft establishes in wake of the trough axis, we could see some isolated high-based convection develop from this afternoon through early this evening from just across the border into our Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plain counties. This convection is capable of gusty winds given the dry low-levels and the modeled inverted "V" soundings. Couldn't rule out some small hail as well but highest probabilities for hail exist farther south with better moisture near the Rio Grande into the CRP CWA Activity should wane quickly towards and after sunset. Majority of the region will not receive any rainfall today. Otherwise, enjoy the temperatures today through tonight as they will trend the coolest of the week. While not widespread, some very patchy shallow fog may be possible early Friday morning.

A much warmer day will be expected on Saturday as mid-level ridging centered to our west and southwest starts to nose more into Texas.
Under sunny afternoon skies, highs should reach the 90s area wide with some 100s out west along the Rio Grande. Saturday night into early Sunday should see dew points climb into the low 70s in areas located along and east of I-35. This will result in warmer overnight lows and the a better opportunity for some patchy fog into Sunday morning.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Upper level ridging will be in play for the beginning of the long- term forecast period into the middle of next week. Southerly flow at the surface will prevail as well. With these prevailing conditions, high temperatures will be on the increase for the beginning of the period. On Sunday expect highs to be near 90 in the northeast to 104 near the Rio Grande. By Wednesday, we will see middle 90s in the northeast with temperatures near 104-105 near the Rio Grande.
Dewpoints will likely remain elevated and heat index values will have to be monitored for any possible need for heat products especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak disturbance may bring a chance of showers and storms late Thursday afternoon and evening and this could knock high temperatures down a degree or two on Thursday with warmer weather likely back for Friday. Will show some 20 and 30 PoPs during this time frame for the eastern Hill Country and northern portions of the I35 corridor. Lows during the long-term forecast period will be in the lower to upper 70s for most locations.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

SHRA/TSRA have developed along and west of the Rio Grande and Pecos rivers, as well as over the Edwards Plateau. Will maintain VCTS at KDRT for this evening. Activity will drift to the east, however will dissipate prior to reaching the I-35 sites with no impacts there.
VFR flying conditions prevail with clouds AOA FL060 tonight into Saturday morning, then SKC through Saturday evening. There is a potential of shallow BR and stratus early in the morning at the I-35 sites and have maintained the TEMPOs. Winds of 8 KTs or less are expected tonight through Saturday evening, however gusty winds are possible near SHRA/TSRA this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 86 67 93 71 / 0 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 64 92 70 / 0 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 90 64 94 70 / 10 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 83 65 92 70 / 10 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 94 69 104 76 / 20 20 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 85 66 91 69 / 0 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 91 64 96 70 / 10 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 84 64 92 69 / 10 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 81 66 91 70 / 20 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 90 67 94 72 / 10 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 89 66 95 72 / 10 10 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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