Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 6:11 PM   Moonset 4:25 AM

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GMZ633 Perdido Bay-pensacola Bay System- 321 Pm Cdt Tue May 21 2024
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop. Sunday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A moderate chop.

GMZ600 321 Pm Cdt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis - A mainly light southeasterly to southerly flow pattern will continue over the marine area through the remainder of the week.

FXUS64 KMOB 212305 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 604 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Some patchy fog may develop overnight mainly over interior areas, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday. Winds become light and variable or calm early this evening, then a southeasterly flow at 5 to 10 knots develops on Wednesday. /29

PREV DISCUSSION
/issued 358 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Upper level ridging will continue to extend from the western Gulf of Mexico and into our region through Wednesday afternoon. A surface ridge of high pressure will meanwhile remain positioned along much of the Eastern Seaboard and Western Atlantic. A light southeasterly to southerly low level flow pattern will continue through Wednesday, allowing for continued warm and rather humid conditions across our forecast area. Rain chances remain almost nil with the upper ridge remaining the dominant feature aloft over our region. Conditions may become favorable for the development of patchy fog after midnight through around 8 AM or so Wednesday morning over interior portions of southeast MS, southwest/south central AL, and perhaps into the interior western FL panhandle.
Lows tonight are forecast to range in the lower to mid 60s over inland communities and in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees along the immediate coast and beaches. Another warm day is anticipated on Wednesday with high temperatures once again ranging in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees over most locations along and north of I-10 and in the lower to mid 80s along the immediate coast and beaches. /21

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

A continuation of warm/muggy conditions will persist through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming holiday weekend. Upper level ridging will remain oriented across our forecast area through Wednesday night before flow aloft generally flattens and becomes more zonal Thursday and Friday. Periodic shortwave impulses in the zonal flow aloft and associated rain/thunderstorm chances still look to remain focused well to our north through the latter part of the week. POPs remain below mentionable levels through Friday, although isolated showers or a thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out over the northern half of our forecast area on Friday afternoon. Embedded shortwave impulses may tend to advance a little further south and potentially bring a slightly better potential for isolated convection over our northern zones this weekend. POPs still remain low (15-20% chance at best)
Saturday and Sunday. A more potent shortwave trough may push across our region Monday into Monday night or early Tuesday of next week. This feature could bring a better chance of showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast. Confidence in timing is low, so we followed the NBM solution with POPs capped at 20-30% both days.

Temperatures and humidity will gradually trend higher as we go into the latter part of the week and into the upcoming holiday weekend. High temperatures may range between 90-95 over much of the interior this weekend, with lows at night only falling to between 70-75. Afternoon heat index readings are also forecast to trend higher in the mid 90s to around 102 degrees this weekend into early next week. /21

Beach Note: Rip current risk remains LOW through Saturday with the RCMOS probabilities remaining LOW through at least Sunday.
Probabilities do begin to increase toward the MODERATE category by the afternoon hours on Memorial Day. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

A mainly light southeasterly to southerly flow pattern will continue over the marine area through the remainder of the week.
Winds may be locally enhanced near the immediate coast each afternoon with the development of a daily seabreeze. /21

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 68 87 68 88 71 89 73 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 69 84 71 85 73 86 75 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 10 Destin 71 84 73 84 74 85 76 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 10 Evergreen 63 89 66 90 67 90 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 10 Waynesboro 65 89 65 90 68 92 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Camden 64 89 66 90 68 91 71 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 20 Crestview 63 89 66 89 66 89 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 10

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Bon Secour
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Tue -- 04:26 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:06 AM CDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:12 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:57 PM CDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bon Secour, Bon Secour River, Alabama, Tide feet

Pensacola Bay Entrance
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Tue -- 04:24 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:51 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:34 AM CDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:10 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:57 PM CDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pensacola Bay Entrance, Pensacola Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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