Sunrise 6:23 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 5:44 PM   Moonset 3:58 AM

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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 931 Am Cdt Tue May 21 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Thursday night - South winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Friday - South winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Saturday night - South winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 931 Am Cdt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
generally moderate onshore winds will continue throughout the week. Winds and seas could occasionally reach caution flag to small craft criteria. The persistent onshore flow may increase the risk of rip currents towards the end of the week and into the weekend.

FXUS64 KHGX 211710 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1210 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Warm, humid and hazy conditions will prevail with broad mid-upper ridging stretching from Mexico & south Texas across the western Gulf into the Mississippi Valley. Look for daytime highs 88-92F with overnight lows 74-79F. A somewhat tighter pressure gradient will lead to 13-20mph during the day and 8-12mph at night.

Though cannot rule out a few isolated sprinkles with saturated low levels below the cap, mainly in the morning/late night hours, wouldn't expect any meaningful or measurable precipitation with capping holding tough today.

A series of upper impulses riding over the top of the ridge Wednesday, bring some broken to overcast conditions locally. Further to our north and west, a dryline and a front serve as a focus for shra/tsra development. There's a non-zero chance extreme n/w parts of the CWA see a rouge, remnant cell try to sneak in Wed evening before dissipating...but again, chances much above 20% look generous at this time. 47

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Today is International Tea Day, but given the ongoing period of hot temperatures (and that we're in Texas) it might be best to celebrate it/cool down with a nice cool glass of iced tea. The general pattern throughout the forecast period continues to be ridging aloft due to persistent high pressure over northern Mexico. Temperatures will go on an upward swing over the weekend, and so will the humidity leading to heat index values well into the 100s. We'll dive more into that shortly, but first let's talk about the ever so slight chance of rain for portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods.

With the ridging aloft remaining in place, we'll have a subsidence inversion layer around 850-750mb. So, as various shortwaves push through and generate thunderstorms over north Texas, there is a slight chance that some may survive long enough to make it to portions of the Brazos Valley/the Piney Woods on Thursday. The chances are low...but not zero. Elsewhere though, rain chances do remain essentially zero through the weekend, so we'll spend the rest of the discussion talking about heat. Synoptically, we'll see a fairly steady pattern of a shortwave passing through the Four Corners region generating surface low pressure on the lee-side of the Rockies placing us in its warm sector. This in turn leads to elevated humidity due to the increased low-level moisture transport.
High temperatures will be in the low 90s on Thursday and Friday with heat index values generally in the 98-103°F range. Over the weekend is when the heat gets cranked up even more.

Southwesterly flow becomes established at 850mb over the weekend leading to 850mb temperatures around or greater than the 99th percentile (NAEFS/GEFS). Some of this warmer air will mix down to the surface leading to air temperatures reaching the mid 90s for most locations along and north of I-10. A frontal boundary will be located to our west over the weekend as well (in association with a surface low in the Central Plains). This particular boundary will be fairly close to us leading to climatologically high PW values ranging from 1.5-1.9" in the afternoons (90th percentile: ~1.80").
When you combine the hotter temperatures with the high humidity, we get heat index values well into the 100s. It's too early to lock it in, but the potential is defintely there for Heat Advisories over the weekend...especially Sunday and Monday/Memorial Day. We're still looking at an upward trend in heat risk as we go from a "Moderate" risk (level 3 out of 5) on Thursday to a "Major" risk (level 4 out of 5) from Friday onward. There won't be much relief during the overnight hours as low temperatures will only bottom out in the upper 70s.

Given that a holiday weekend is coming up and I'm sure many of you have outdoor plans, please be sure to practice heat safety: drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day, wear loose/lightweight clothing, know the signs of heat stroke/heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don't forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws.

While Memorial Day (Monday) looks to be the hottest day of the year so far, this is also the day when rain chances return for a good chunk of the region. Remember that frontal boundary we talked about earlier? Well there is fairly decent model agreement that an upper level low will push far south enough for that boundary to push into Southeast Texas. This is still seven days out, so there's a lot of time for this to change...but even if this does pan out we're not looking at anything more than a cooldown of a few degrees.

Batiste

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Scattered MVFR cigs will continue to improve marginally over the next few hours, with a period of largely VFR cigs expected through sunset. Low-end MVFR to IFR cigs will develop after 00Z, with the greatest chances for IFR cigs near the coast and across the northern terminals. Sustained winds remain around 10-12 knots, and a few wind gusts of 15-20 kts will be possible this afternoon.
Overnight, winds mainly diminish to under 10 knots with the wind direction remaining out of the southeast. Some improvement to cigs is expected by daybreak tomorrow, but MVFR conditions may linger into the early afternoon yet again.

Cady

MARINE
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Generally moderate onshore winds will continue throughout the week.
At times, winds and seas may increase enough for small craft to exercise caution midweek and over the weekend. The persistent onshore flow may increase the risk of rip currents towards the end of the week and into the weekend.

Batiste

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos rivers. The following river points are either currently in flood stage or are forecast to reach flood stage (as of early Tuesday morning):

MAJOR// ------- - Trinity River (Liberty): Major

MODERATE// ---------- - Trinity River (Goodrich): Moderate - Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate - Brazos River (West Columbia): Moderate (forecast)

MINOR// ------- - East Fork San Jacinto (New Caney): Minor - Brazos River (Richmond): Minor - Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor - Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat persists. 

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 91 76 91 76 / 0 10 10 20 Houston (IAH) 90 77 89 77 / 10 10 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 84 79 84 79 / 10 0 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Lynchburg Landing
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:29 AM CDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:57 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:23 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:39 AM CDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:41 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:10 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas, Tide feet

Clear Lake
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:39 AM CDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:57 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:24 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:27 AM CDT     0.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:24 PM CDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:41 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:09 PM CDT     0.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas, Tide feet

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