Sunrise 6:02 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 5:23 PM   Moonset 3:38 AM

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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 929 Am Cdt Tue May 21 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves around 2 feet. Saturday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Saturday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.

GMZ500 929 Am Cdt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
surface high pressure centered northeast of the local area will slowly shift from the carolinas to the western atlantic from now to early next week. This will keep onshore flow in place with a gradual shift in wind direction from southeast to south. The pressure gradient will generally support wind speeds around 10 knots with occasional periods of speeds closer to 15 knots.

FXUS64 KLIX 211811 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 111 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Little change in the ongoing pattern of deep layer ridging currently in place across the Gulf South is expected through Thursday night. The result of this deep layer ridging will be continued subsidence and warming through the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, and that warming will keep a strong mid- level capping inversion place through the period. This will result in a dry forecast through the period. At most, some scattered low topped cumulus development beneath the inversion will occur each afternoon as the low levels remain warm, humid, and unstable.
Temperatures will remain warmer than average due to the highly subsident airmass in place, and afternoon highs will easily climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Overnight lows will also be above normal in the upper 60s and lower 70s as dewpoints remain elevated in the mid to upper 60s. Have opted to go with a blend of NBM 50th and 75th percentile values for the overnight lows. As low dip toward the diurnal minimum each morning, some patchy fog may develop over inland areas given the light boundary layer winds in place beneath the ridge.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Going into Friday continuing to be noticeably hotter as 591dm ridging remains parked over Mexico into the Gulf. This will keep highs pretty hot generally into the mid 90's and with the return of low to mid 70 Td's, will introduce building heat indicies into the upper 90's to low 100's especially going into Memorial Day Weekend.
Not seeing any excessive or dangerous heat indicies, but will be enough to be impactful for those outdoors for an extended period, especially given this being our first return of heat reaching these temperatures this season and many may not be too used to it just yet. Messaging going into the holiday weekend will be focused on taking precautions against the heat. Additionally, kept a warmer overnight low bias rolling with many areas not cooling much lower than the mid to upper 70's.

As for rain chances, still not seeing strong indications but as mentioned in yesterday's long-range discussion, will still need to keep an eye on the quasi-zonal flow aloft and subtle hints at weak mid-level impulses ridging from TX to the northern Gulf coast. No indications of any MCS or cluster in recent runs, but will need to keep an eye on it in case anything tries to sneak into atleast nearby our area. For now, rolling with NBM deterministic PoPs which keeps things dry for the most part this weekend. Some indications of a weak front arriving early next week, but that remains to be seen as far as rain coverage/chances and potential to counteract the heat some. Will keep an eye on that. KLG

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 A scattered CU field that developed this morning encompasses most of the local area. Observations at terminals indicate VFR conditions are in place now that CU decks have risen. Expect VFR to dominate the rest of the day and evening hours. MVFR will be possible at some TAF sites late tonight into Tuesday morning as low clouds potentially develop. Southerly flow will continue with light/variable winds in the overnight period.

MARINE
Issued at 259 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

The waters will continue to see a persistent southeasterly flow of around 10 knots through the weekend as high pressure dominates the northern Gulf. Seas will also be fairly consistent in the 1 to 3 feet range through the period, and there will be no risk of thunderstorm activity producing locally higher waves and seas. As a result, continued good boating conditions are anticipated through the upcoming holiday weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 68 88 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 71 90 72 91 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 71 88 73 89 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 73 87 75 88 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 73 85 74 86 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 71 85 72 86 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Tue -- 01:01 AM CDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:36 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:06 PM CDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:20 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:50 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Manilla
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Tue -- 04:37 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:04 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:45 AM CDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:19 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:49 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:55 PM CDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

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