Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Beach City, TX
May 21, 2024 2:05 AM CDT (07:05 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:22 AM Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 5:41 PM Moonset 3:56 AM |
GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 1049 Pm Cdt Mon May 20 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Wednesday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Thursday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Saturday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1049 Pm Cdt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
generally moderate onshore winds can be expected through this week. At times, winds and seas may increase enough for small craft to exercise caution midweek.
generally moderate onshore winds can be expected through this week. At times, winds and seas may increase enough for small craft to exercise caution midweek.
Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 210404 AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1104 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
The main story through the week will focus on the heat, which will give us a good taste of full-out summer in late May. Depending on how power restoration efforts go, this may be a specific concern around the Houston metro, but more broadly, heat stress tends to have greater impacts earlier in the season while folks are not yet acclimated. This holiday weekend is a good time to practice all things summer - yes, grilling and boating and such, but also practicing heat safety. A couple things to remember: - Look for forecast temperatures to rise into the holiday, going from lows in the upper 60s to around 70 and highs around 90 degrees today, to lows in the upper 70s to around 80 and highs in the lower to middle 90s a week from today. This should also push peak heat index values from the 90s today to levels that may exceed 105 degrees on Memorial Day.
- While rain chances will be functionally nil most places for most of the week, there's a small chance for showers and thunderstorms coming into the northern parts of the area from the northwest at times during the week. Even here, rain chances are low...but if anything does survive into Southeast Texas, it could involve a strong to severe thunderstorm. The first opportunity for such a conditional threat looks to be Wednesday evening. The northernmost sliver of our area is included in an SPC marginal risk area (threat level 1 of 5) for severe weather.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Visible satellite showing a scattered cumulus field across SE Texas as onshore flow continues ahead of a low pressure system. As with yesterday, will not see much vertical growth with these cumulus clouds as we remain under high pressure and vertical growth is inhibited by subsidence/drier air.
Cloud cover increases tonight, which will trap the warmer air in at the surface. This will lead to pretty warm nighttime lows as temperatures dip into the 70s area wide.
Breezy conditions continue Tuesday as a shortwave trough enters the Four Corners and creates another area of low pressure near the Panhandle. As this surface low deepens, it will interact with the high pressure near SE Texas and create a tighter pressure gradient.
This will result in, SE winds increasing to around 15 mph during the afternoon hours. Increased onshore flow will consequently bring PW values up to around 1.3-1.7" making it feel rather hot and muggy outside. Overhead a moderate (20-25kt) LLJ will battle the subsidence from ridging aloft. Ultimately, the ridging will win as cloud covered increases but the subsidence keeps the area rain free.
Max daytime temperatures will be in the 90s inland with low to mid 80s along the coast. Heat index values will continue to rise, and will be in the 100-105 range for the majority of the area.
Continue to exercise heat safety by staying hydrated, taking frequent breaks, and avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day. Remember to look before you lock, and if the ground is too hot for your hand, it is too hot for pets' paws!
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
The primary feature in the long term will be subtropical ridge aloft, centered right over Mexico. It looks to stay somewhat stable through the period, with any fluctuations important to the nuances of our forecast weather more to the fringes of its influence. However, in general, a strong subtropical ridge as we head into the summer means heat is the primary thing to pay attention to, and that certainly is the case here.
Let's start by taking a glance at the Euro ensemble's Extreme Forecast Index. When it comes to high temperatures, it's not
that
bad, actually. We've got a signal for potential very unseasonable heat popping up near the coast, where the EFI exceeds 0.5, but for the most part, the real torch is focused more over South Texas. The same cannot be said for overnight lows. EFI values for min temps above 0.5 emerge tonight, and find themselves at a very eyebrow-waggling levels above 0.8 from Tuesday night through the rest of the period. There are even isolated locations exceeding 0.9 along the Gulf Coast. Given the strong ridge, persistent onshore flow feeding in air from above an anomalously warm Gulf, and really warm nights seem like the near certainty the EFI implies. This can cause serious issues for folks who aren't able to get breaks in cooled areas, as the accumulation of heat stress is a major factor, and unseasonably high days followed by potentially record warm nights is not going to provide that opportunity for a break unless air conditioning is involved.
So, the question becomes, "It's going to be hot, but will it be hot enough for any heat advisories or warnings?" And the answer to that is a definite maybe. By Monday, if my forecast is perfect (I wish), we do have some heat index values above 108 emerging which is our threshold for a heat advisory. That said, for a derived parameter that depends on both temperature and dewpoint, I'm not going to get too specific on this. Suffice to say, the trend, like with temps, will also be upwards. This also holds when we consider an alternative look at heat like Wet Bulb Globe Temp. The trend here also shows a drift up from widespread "Moderate" risk area (level 3 of 5) to widespread "High" risk (level 4 of 5) by the weekend. We should find ourselves in something very much like we'd see fully into summer to celebrate the traditional "opening" of summer this weekend.
Beyond the heat, we do have one other thing to talk about, and that will be our small rain chances this week. This scenario is typical for this time of year, when the subtropical ridge is building in but not quite dominant. We'll be spending our evenings watching up to the northwest, to see if convection that fires there earlier in the day survives into any portion of Southeast Texas. The odds are low, and I try to keep my slight chances restricted to areas north of Brenham, Navasota, Huntsville, and the like. The best days still seem to be Wednesday and particularly Thursday, as shortwave troughs pass by to our north, then perhaps again next Monday night. Also of note - in these situations, should anything beat the odds and survive, it could be strong to severe. In keeping with this, SPC has the northernmost sliver of our area in a marginal risk area (threat level 1 of 5)
on Wednesday. Though they do not explicitly delineate such areas on Days 4-8, the placement of a 15 percent/"slight risk" area on Thursday implies much the same situation.
AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
MVFR conditions have begun to move develop across the region, starting near the coast, and will envelope the entire area within the next few hours. Expect CIGs around 1500ft through the night with periods of IFR conditions possible at times with ceilings down to around 700ft possible. Clouds will lift and scatter out through the late morning to early afternoon, but MVFR conditions will return Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Southeasterly winds will continue overnight at around 5-9kt, but will be less gusty and staying around 4-7kt. Clouds begin to increase to around 10-15kt and gusts to 20-25kt by the late morning.
Fowler
MARINE
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Generally moderate onshore winds can be expected through this week. At times, winds and seas may increase enough for small craft to exercise caution midweek.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 74 91 76 90 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 75 90 76 89 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 77 85 77 84 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1104 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
The main story through the week will focus on the heat, which will give us a good taste of full-out summer in late May. Depending on how power restoration efforts go, this may be a specific concern around the Houston metro, but more broadly, heat stress tends to have greater impacts earlier in the season while folks are not yet acclimated. This holiday weekend is a good time to practice all things summer - yes, grilling and boating and such, but also practicing heat safety. A couple things to remember: - Look for forecast temperatures to rise into the holiday, going from lows in the upper 60s to around 70 and highs around 90 degrees today, to lows in the upper 70s to around 80 and highs in the lower to middle 90s a week from today. This should also push peak heat index values from the 90s today to levels that may exceed 105 degrees on Memorial Day.
- While rain chances will be functionally nil most places for most of the week, there's a small chance for showers and thunderstorms coming into the northern parts of the area from the northwest at times during the week. Even here, rain chances are low...but if anything does survive into Southeast Texas, it could involve a strong to severe thunderstorm. The first opportunity for such a conditional threat looks to be Wednesday evening. The northernmost sliver of our area is included in an SPC marginal risk area (threat level 1 of 5) for severe weather.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Visible satellite showing a scattered cumulus field across SE Texas as onshore flow continues ahead of a low pressure system. As with yesterday, will not see much vertical growth with these cumulus clouds as we remain under high pressure and vertical growth is inhibited by subsidence/drier air.
Cloud cover increases tonight, which will trap the warmer air in at the surface. This will lead to pretty warm nighttime lows as temperatures dip into the 70s area wide.
Breezy conditions continue Tuesday as a shortwave trough enters the Four Corners and creates another area of low pressure near the Panhandle. As this surface low deepens, it will interact with the high pressure near SE Texas and create a tighter pressure gradient.
This will result in, SE winds increasing to around 15 mph during the afternoon hours. Increased onshore flow will consequently bring PW values up to around 1.3-1.7" making it feel rather hot and muggy outside. Overhead a moderate (20-25kt) LLJ will battle the subsidence from ridging aloft. Ultimately, the ridging will win as cloud covered increases but the subsidence keeps the area rain free.
Max daytime temperatures will be in the 90s inland with low to mid 80s along the coast. Heat index values will continue to rise, and will be in the 100-105 range for the majority of the area.
Continue to exercise heat safety by staying hydrated, taking frequent breaks, and avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day. Remember to look before you lock, and if the ground is too hot for your hand, it is too hot for pets' paws!
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
The primary feature in the long term will be subtropical ridge aloft, centered right over Mexico. It looks to stay somewhat stable through the period, with any fluctuations important to the nuances of our forecast weather more to the fringes of its influence. However, in general, a strong subtropical ridge as we head into the summer means heat is the primary thing to pay attention to, and that certainly is the case here.
Let's start by taking a glance at the Euro ensemble's Extreme Forecast Index. When it comes to high temperatures, it's not
that
bad, actually. We've got a signal for potential very unseasonable heat popping up near the coast, where the EFI exceeds 0.5, but for the most part, the real torch is focused more over South Texas. The same cannot be said for overnight lows. EFI values for min temps above 0.5 emerge tonight, and find themselves at a very eyebrow-waggling levels above 0.8 from Tuesday night through the rest of the period. There are even isolated locations exceeding 0.9 along the Gulf Coast. Given the strong ridge, persistent onshore flow feeding in air from above an anomalously warm Gulf, and really warm nights seem like the near certainty the EFI implies. This can cause serious issues for folks who aren't able to get breaks in cooled areas, as the accumulation of heat stress is a major factor, and unseasonably high days followed by potentially record warm nights is not going to provide that opportunity for a break unless air conditioning is involved.
So, the question becomes, "It's going to be hot, but will it be hot enough for any heat advisories or warnings?" And the answer to that is a definite maybe. By Monday, if my forecast is perfect (I wish), we do have some heat index values above 108 emerging which is our threshold for a heat advisory. That said, for a derived parameter that depends on both temperature and dewpoint, I'm not going to get too specific on this. Suffice to say, the trend, like with temps, will also be upwards. This also holds when we consider an alternative look at heat like Wet Bulb Globe Temp. The trend here also shows a drift up from widespread "Moderate" risk area (level 3 of 5) to widespread "High" risk (level 4 of 5) by the weekend. We should find ourselves in something very much like we'd see fully into summer to celebrate the traditional "opening" of summer this weekend.
Beyond the heat, we do have one other thing to talk about, and that will be our small rain chances this week. This scenario is typical for this time of year, when the subtropical ridge is building in but not quite dominant. We'll be spending our evenings watching up to the northwest, to see if convection that fires there earlier in the day survives into any portion of Southeast Texas. The odds are low, and I try to keep my slight chances restricted to areas north of Brenham, Navasota, Huntsville, and the like. The best days still seem to be Wednesday and particularly Thursday, as shortwave troughs pass by to our north, then perhaps again next Monday night. Also of note - in these situations, should anything beat the odds and survive, it could be strong to severe. In keeping with this, SPC has the northernmost sliver of our area in a marginal risk area (threat level 1 of 5)
on Wednesday. Though they do not explicitly delineate such areas on Days 4-8, the placement of a 15 percent/"slight risk" area on Thursday implies much the same situation.
AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1103 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
MVFR conditions have begun to move develop across the region, starting near the coast, and will envelope the entire area within the next few hours. Expect CIGs around 1500ft through the night with periods of IFR conditions possible at times with ceilings down to around 700ft possible. Clouds will lift and scatter out through the late morning to early afternoon, but MVFR conditions will return Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Southeasterly winds will continue overnight at around 5-9kt, but will be less gusty and staying around 4-7kt. Clouds begin to increase to around 10-15kt and gusts to 20-25kt by the late morning.
Fowler
MARINE
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Generally moderate onshore winds can be expected through this week. At times, winds and seas may increase enough for small craft to exercise caution midweek.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 74 91 76 90 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 75 90 76 89 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 77 85 77 84 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX | 7 mi | 48 min | ESE 16G | 79°F | 29.82 | |||
| EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX | 13 mi | 48 min | SSE 19G | 84°F | 85°F | 29.83 | ||
| RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX | 21 mi | 48 min | SSE 17G | 79°F | 87°F | 29.83 | ||
| NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX | 22 mi | 48 min | S 5.1G | 80°F | 29.80 | |||
| GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX | 23 mi | 48 min | SSE 20G | 29.81 | ||||
| GTOT2 | 25 mi | 48 min | SSE 6G | 80°F | 83°F | 29.80 | ||
| HIST2 | 25 mi | 48 min | SSE 7G | 79°F | 88°F | 29.85 | ||
| GRRT2 | 26 mi | 48 min | ESE 14G | 80°F | 84°F | 29.80 | ||
| 42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX | 39 mi | 56 min | SE 16G | 80°F | 3 ft | 29.84 | ||
| KGVW | 41 mi | 31 min | ESE 19 | |||||
| LUIT2 | 43 mi | 48 min | SE 15G | 80°F | 84°F | 29.82 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KEFD ELLINGTON,TX | 16 sm | 11 min | SE 10G15 | 10 sm | Overcast | 81°F | 77°F | 89% | 29.84 | |
| KHOU WILLIAM P HOBBY,TX | 22 sm | 12 min | SE 11 | 9 sm | Overcast | 81°F | 75°F | 84% | 29.81 |
Point Barrow
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:46 AM CDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:56 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:22 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:50 AM CDT 1.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:27 PM CDT 0.97 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:18 PM CDT 0.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:46 AM CDT 0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:56 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:22 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:50 AM CDT 1.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:27 PM CDT 0.97 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 07:18 PM CDT 0.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:09 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.2 |
| 4 am |
| 0.3 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.1 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:09 AM CDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:51 AM CDT 2.15 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:56 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:23 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:42 AM CDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:40 PM CDT -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:35 PM CDT -0.56 knots Min Ebb
Tue -- 06:39 PM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:08 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:56 PM CDT -2.15 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:09 AM CDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:51 AM CDT 2.15 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:56 AM CDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:23 AM CDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:42 AM CDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:40 PM CDT -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:35 PM CDT -0.56 knots Min Ebb
Tue -- 06:39 PM CDT Moonrise
Tue -- 08:08 PM CDT Sunset
Tue -- 08:56 PM CDT -2.15 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1 |
| 1 am |
| -0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1.6 |
| 4 am |
| 2 |
| 5 am |
| 2.1 |
| 6 am |
| 2 |
| 7 am |
| 1.6 |
| 8 am |
| 1.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| -0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| -1 |
| 6 pm |
| -1.4 |
| 7 pm |
| -1.8 |
| 8 pm |
| -2.1 |
| 9 pm |
| -2.1 |
| 10 pm |
| -2 |
| 11 pm |
| -1.7 |
Houston/Galveston, TX,
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