Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 1:48 PM   Moonset 1:55 AM

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GMZ436 Atchafalaya And East Cote Blanche Bays- 257 Pm Cdt Fri May 17 2024
Tonight - South winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast late. Bay waters light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms with a slight chance of showers this evening, then showers with Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop. Showers with Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - South winds around 5 knots in the evening, becoming light and variable. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog after midnight. Sunday - Light and variable winds, becoming south around 5 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Sunday night - South winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Monday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop. Monday night - Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Tuesday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Wednesday - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Wednesday night - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 257 Pm Cdt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis - Widespread showers and Thunderstorms will continue into Friday night as a low pressure system moves across the area - .winds and seas could be significantly stronger in the vicinity of storms. Lower winds will result in seas gradually falling through the weekend. No precip is expected by late Saturday afternoon through next week as light onshore flow prevails as high pressure moves east of the region.

FXUS64 KLCH 172330 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 630 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The latest radar and satellite imagery reveal partly to mostly cloudy skies and light showers streaming in from the southeast this afternoon. This activity will likely continue into the evening hours, but should remain below severe limits. An approaching shortwave, in combination with high moisture content and instability, will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms late tonight into early Saturday morning for areas along and south of I-10 and the Gulf waters. The latest suite of high res guidance indicates that the onset of any convective development is likely to be after 2-3AM for areas along and south of a Lake Charles to Lafayette line, and is expected to move east to southeast into early Saturday morning. Forecast model soundings support the potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail with any severe thunderstorms.

In addition to the potential for severe weather, locally heavy rain may also bring a threat for flash flooding for areas along and south of a Lake Charles to Lafayette line. HRRR guidance indicates additional amounts of 1-2 inches will be possible through early Saturday. With the highest rainfall amounts expected to fall further south of the Flood Watch configuration, the Flood Watch has been cancelled for this evening. While there still may be minor issues with recent rainfall, expect fairly light rainfall amounts through this evening.

Otherwise, the combination of light winds and high moisture content may result in the development of patchy fog tonight.
Expect cloudy skies with low temperatures in the 60s region wide tonight. Ridging is expected to build over the region heading into the weekend, which will bring an end to the unsettled weather pattern. Highs will be in the upper 80s and low 90s with low temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s.

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The work week will feature above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s as high pressure and ridging prevail.
In combination with the humidity, afternoon heat index values will rise into the mid to upper 90s each afternoon. Unsettled weather may return toward the end of the week as an upper level disturbance approaches, but most precipitation chances are expected to remain further north.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Rather stable conditions at the moment across the forecast area with mainly VFR ceilings and just some occasional light rain. The question for tonight is the development of any convective activity and if it will organize into a MCS. For now, it looks like any organized activity will develop late tonight and southeast of Lafayette to Cameron line. Therefore, only KLFT and KARA will have the mention of storms between 1808z/1812z.

Otherwise, remainder of the terminals will see a redevelopment of low clouds and patchy fog with MVFR to IFR conditions.

On Saturday, more stable conditions will filter with drier air that will allow for VFR conditions after 18/15z.

Rua

MARINE
Issued at 351 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop across the coastal waters late tonight into early Saturday morning. Winds and seas could be significantly stronger in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. Light to moderate winds will result in gradually falling seas late this weekend into next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 64 87 67 89 / 30 10 0 0 LCH 68 86 70 89 / 40 10 0 0 LFT 70 86 71 91 / 60 10 0 0 BPT 67 88 70 91 / 30 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Shell Island
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Fri -- 01:25 AM CDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:55 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:11 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:22 AM CDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:25 PM CDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:47 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:28 PM CDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:52 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

Point Chevreuil
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:34 AM CDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:56 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:07 AM CDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:12 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 02:33 PM CDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:48 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:13 PM CDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Chevreuil, Louisiana, Tide feet

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