Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 2:13 PM   Moonset 2:18 AM

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GMZ236 Copano, Aransas, And Redfish Bays- San Antonio, Mesquite, And Espiritu Santo Bays- 254 Pm Cdt Fri May 17 2024
Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening. Saturday - North winds around 5 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth. Patchy fog in the morning. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth. Sunday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Wednesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ200 254 Pm Cdt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
weak to moderate northeast flow this afternoon will weaken and drop under 10 knots by midnight. Winds will remain weak at 10 knots or lower through tomorrow night with the winds shifting to the southeast tomorrow night. Low to medium chances for rain tonight will drop to slim (less than 10%) tomorrow as an upper- level ridge moves into the area. Weak onshore flow Sunday strengthens to weak to moderate Sunday evening before becoming moderate Tuesday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to resume Wednesday through the end of the week.

FXUS64 KCRP 172334 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 634 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Key Messages:

▶ Drier tonight, warmer tomorrow

Current radar shows a couple lines of showers and thunderstorms stretching from the Brush Country through the northern Coastal Plains and into the Victoria Crossroads. The HRRR and other CAM models continue to show redevelopment across the Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend this afternoon, but confidence is low at this time as the atmosphere appears to have stabilized in the wake of the cluster of thunderstorms that moves through the region late this morning. If we get enough breaks in the clouds and the atmosphere is able to destabilize with daytime heating, then the confidence for redevelopment will increase significantly. Rain chances across the region should quickly taper off this evening after sunset as PWAT values begin to decrease.

As the upper-level trough continues moving eastward tonight, some vorticity will swing across the base of the trough and through South Texas, however, with PWAT values decreasing and the forcing from the upper-level jet dynamic no longer over South Texas, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be low. Ridging will begin to move into the region tomorrow promoting warmer temperatures. Despite PWAT dropping to near 1" late tonight into tomorrow, sufficient moisture will hang around to promote heat indices of 100-105 degrees area- wide. There's also a medium chance for patchy fog to develop from the Brush Country through the Coastal Plains and into the Victoria Crossroads as light winds will combine with the moisture from the recent rainfall.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Key Message:

▶ A Major to Extreme risk of heat related impacts from dangerous heat next week across most of South Texas

The long term period starts out with a mid-level high over Cuba and another one just south of the tip of Baja, CA. A ridge builds in over the region and keeps storm tracks further north as subsidence builds in across most of the state. The lack of deep moisture combined with subsidence will preclude any rain/storm chances throughout the long term period despite increasing PWAT's next week.
Precipitable water values start out below normal < 1.0" than onshore flow increases low level moisture with PWAT's of around 1.50-1.75" according to the GEFS mean ensemble by the end of next week with normal values for this time of year at 1.50".

Hot surface temperatures combine with high humidity resulting in dangerous heat most of the week next week with Tuesday and Wednesday looking to be the peak. Generally, there's a Major risk of heat- related impacts for anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration, much of the week with heat indices ranging up to around 110 degrees. Tuesday and Wednesday look to pose an Extreme heat risk with heat indices 110-115 degrees across much of the region. This level of rare and/or long-duration extreme heat with little to no overnight relief affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Please take safety precautions and brush up on how to combat the heat at weather.gov/safety/heat

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A few showers continue around the VCT area this evening, but will be exiting over the next couple of hours. Storms in Mexico west of COT and LRD are expected to diminish as they move toward the Rio Grande, but mid/upper levels clouds left over from the storms will likely continue to stream across S TX. MVFR CIGs are expected mainly along the coast with VCT, CRP and ALI having periods of MVFR CIGs over tonight. VSBYs are also expected to lower to MVFR/IFR for these areas toward early Saturday morning between 09-14Z due to patchy fog. The SREF is showing the probability of visibilities less than 1SM between 30-50% from ALI to VCT and 10-20% across CRP. VFR conditions are expected by mid morning Saturday with much less cloud cover due to a ridge building across S TX.

MARINE
Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Weak to moderate northeast flow this evening will weaken and drop under 10 knots by midnight. Winds will remain weak at 10 knots or lower through tomorrow night with the winds shifting to the southeast tomorrow night. Low to medium chances for rain tonight will drop to slim (less than 10%) tomorrow as an upper-level ridge moves into the area. Weak onshore flow Sunday strengthens to weak to moderate Sunday evening before becoming Moderate Tuesday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to resume Wednesday through the end of the week. Warm and dry conditions are expected with Maximum Heat Index values 90-95F Tuesday through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 71 93 74 93 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 66 93 72 93 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 71 101 75 101 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 68 97 73 96 / 10 0 0 0 Rockport 74 89 77 88 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 68 100 73 101 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 70 95 74 94 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 77 89 77 89 / 10 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Rockport
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Fri -- 03:18 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:37 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:58 AM CDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:33 PM CDT     0.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:12 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:12 PM CDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Rockport, Aransas Bay, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:21 AM CDT     -0.39 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:59 AM CDT     -0.39 knots Min Ebb
Fri -- 03:17 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:14 AM CDT     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:37 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:48 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:03 PM CDT     0.69 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:12 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:20 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 08:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:14 PM CDT     -0.35 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:58 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

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