Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 5:38 PM   Moonset 4:02 AM

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AMZ610 Lake Okeechobee- 1001 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Rest of today - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Tonight - E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms late in the evening. Wed - E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop. Thu - E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop. Fri - E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt becoming S sw in the morning. Lake waters a light chop. Sat - S winds 5 kt becoming E se. Lake waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1001 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis -
winds will gradually shift to a north to northeasterly direction today as a weak surface low shifts away from the area and high pressure builds to our north with speeds remaining relatively light. The threat of Thunderstorms, some of which could be strong, will persist through today with these storms resulting in periods of locally hazardous winds and seas.
gulf stream hazards: none
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 21, 2024 at 12 utc - .
7 nautical miles southeast of fowey rocks. 9 nautical miles east of port everglades. 10 nautical miles northeast of lake worth. 13 nautical miles southeast of jupiter inlet.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMLB 211425 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1025 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

A light to moderate low level NE flow will exist across the area today, between high pressure to the north of the state and low pressure well offshore over the west Atlantic. There is limited moisture in place across the area, with morning soundings and GOES-16 PW imagery showing PW values around 1-1.2" across central FL. However, model guidance does show a modest increase in these values to around 1.4-1.5" through the day with the onshore flow.
Mid-level trough axis extended across the area may allow for some enhanced lift with the inland moving east coast sea breeze to produce scattered showers and isolated storms. However, CAM guidance showing less than impressive convective coverage today.
Therefore, lowered rain chances today, and are no more that 30-40 percent, mainly across the interior and northern coast, while for coastal locations from Melbourne south, PoPs are only around 20 percent. Skies will be mostly to partly sunny, with highs in the 80s.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 318 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Today...Mid level troughing remains in place across the western Atlantic stretching southwestward across Florida. A 500mb vorticity boundary pivots around its base, swinging across the peninsula today. An associated area of surface low pressure offshore the Florida east coast will promote northeast winds, increasing to 10-15 mph as a sea breeze moves inland this afternoon. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast across much of east central Florida today with models hinting at first development along the Volusia coast. While some mid level vorticity may exist, sounding profiles suggest limited storm organization overall. Steep low level lapse rates could support quick updraft growth. However, the potential for sustained stronger storms may remain limited due to poor shear and poor lapse rates above 850mb. Localized DCAPE values over 1,000 J/kg could possibly allow for a stronger downburst with occasional wind gusts up to 50 mph.

Afternoon temperatures remain warm, near seasonal values. Forecasted highs range the mid 80s along and east of I-95, warming into the upper 80s across the interior. A few areas in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee could even reach the 90 degree mark. Cooler temperatures along the immediate Volusia Coast, mainly in the low 80s.

Wednesday...The wet, stormy pattern transitions as high pressure builds at the surface and aloft. 500mb ridging across the western Gulf extends over the state of Florida Wednesday. Coverage of showers and storms dwindle with only an isolated mention near Lake Okeechobee. Most notably, the building ridge will support a warming temperature trend. Afternoon highs warm into mid to upper 80s along the coast and near I-95, reaching the low 90s across much of the interior.

Thursday-Monday...Anomalous ridging aloft holds steady on Thursday as 500mb heights reach the 90th climatological percentile. Mid level ridging continues to remain in place through the weekend, flattening some as a shortwave moves across the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure extending offshore the Atlantic seaboard is nudged seaward. In response, onshore flow veers south into Friday, increasing moisture and precip chances into the weekend.

Temperatures remain on an upward trend through late week into early next week, reaching the mid 90s across much of the interior by Friday. Further warming could even support widespread mid to upper 90s by Sunday and Monday. Moisture return late week will further support humid and muggy conditions, and maximum heat index values reach 100-105 on Saturday into early next week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Mostly VFR conditions. Northerly morning winds 5-10 kts veer NE/ENE with speeds increasing to 10-15 kts with higher afternoon gusts. The ECSB will push inland during the afternoon and into WCFL in the evening. ISOLD to WDLY SCT showers and perhaps an ISOLD lightning storm is forecast but confidence low here. MVFR CIGs /VSBYs invof convection. This activity will be associated with the inland moving sea breeze. Will use "Vicinity" wording and TEMPO groups as necessary. Diminished convective chances past early evening.

MARINE
Issued at 318 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Today-Tonight...Low pressure situated far offshore will support northeast winds around 5-10 kts. Small craft should exercise caution across the offshore Volusia and offshore Brevard waters before sunrise for seas up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream. Seas gradually subside through the day, becoming widely 3-4 ft late tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered lightning storms are forecast.

Wednesday-Saturday...Seas of 2-3 ft are forecast through late week, promoting favorable boating conditions. Onshore winds around 5-10 kts veer south into Friday. Mostly dry with the best chance for a shower or storm limited to the Treasure Coast waters. Isolated to scattered showers then return across all waters on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 84 71 85 69 / 30 10 10 0 MCO 88 71 90 69 / 40 10 10 0 MLB 85 73 85 72 / 20 10 10 0 VRB 87 71 87 70 / 20 20 10 0 LEE 88 71 91 71 / 40 10 10 0 SFB 87 70 90 69 / 30 10 10 0 ORL 88 71 90 70 / 40 10 10 0 FPR 87 70 87 69 / 20 20 20 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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North Fork
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Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:12 AM EDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:08 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:53 PM EDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida, Tide feet

South Fork
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Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:04 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:16 AM EDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:12 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:57 PM EDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

South Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida, Tide feet

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