Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 5:41 PM   Moonset 4:08 AM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1001 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Rest of today - W nw winds 5 kt nearshore and W nw 5 to 10 kt offshore. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: N nw 1 foot at 4 seconds and sw 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms. Tonight - NE winds 5 kt nearshore and E ne 5 to 10 kt offshore. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: N nw 1 foot at 3 seconds and sw 1 foot at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Wed - E se winds around 5 kt becoming s. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: ne 1 foot at 2 seconds and sw 1 foot at 5 seconds. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms. Wed night - E winds around 5 kt nearshore and E 5 to 10 kt offshore. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: E se 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Thu - E se winds 5 to 10 kt becoming S sw. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: E se 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - E se winds around 5 kt nearshore and E se 5 to 10 kt offshore. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Wave detail: E se 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and tstms late in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Fri - S se winds around 5 kt becoming sw. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Fri night - SE winds 5 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and tstms through the night. Sat - S se winds 5 kt becoming W sw around 5 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot. Bay and inland waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and tstms.

GMZ600 919 Am Cdt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis - Light easterly winds today become light southeasterly to southerly through the remainder of the week.

FXUS62 KMFL 211646 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1246 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

A weak frontal boundary remains oriented from east to west just south of the area. Taking a peek aloft, a shortwave remains just to the northeast gradually shifting eastward into the western Atlantic waters. 500mb flow on the posterior side of this feature will maintain westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow across the region today. The combination of stronger easterly/northeasterly flow at the surface and north westerly flow aloft will act to focus sea- breeze driven convection southward across the region, with the greatest chances of precipitation across our southern areas (particularly Miami-Dade County and Mainland Monroe) during the afternoon hours today. Mesoscale models indicate the potential of an SBCAPE gradient in conjunction with the inward propagating Atlantic sea- breeze, enhanced ascent along this boundary will lead to convective initiation during the early afternoon hours. Although overall severe parameters do not appear to be too conducive, there will still be the potential for an isolated strong to severe storm or two across southern portions of the area.

DCAPE values of 1000-1200+ J/kg support the potential of wet microbursts with the strongest convective updrafts. In addition, Although the axis of the shortwave has propagated offshore of the CONUS, South Florida will remain on the periphery of the cold pool aloft with 500mb temperatures sitting around -9 C. This could allow for some small hail to fall if a taller core develops. In addition, although antecedent conditions remain fairly dry across the southern portions of the east coast metro area, cannot rule out some pockets of minor urban flooding in vulnerable low lying locations given the relatively light 500mb flow. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to low 90s across the region, with the warmest temperatures being realized across southwestern Florida.

With the shortwave continuing to propagate to the east on Wednesday, 500mb flow will veer more to a northerly direction in nature.
Combined with northeasterly surface flow prevailing, sea-breeze circulations will favor convective initiation across the southern inland portions of our area. As the shortwave continues to propagate away, 500mb temperatures will continue to warm with 500mb temps in the -5C to -6C range possible. This will keep the majority of thunderstorm activity in the garden variety form, although localized ascent along boundary collisions could still support the potential of an isolated strong to severe wet microburst if a storm pulses up and collapses in a quick fashion.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

During the mid-week period, the mid-level shortwave will remain situated over the western Atlantic waters to the east of the Bahamas. A mid-level ridge will also develop and remain centered over the western Gulf of Mexico during this time frame.
Between these two synoptic features, South Florida will remain in a light northerly 500mb flow regime with a lack of synoptic forcing across the area with the subtropical jet located well to the north of our region. At the surface, ridging situated over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds across the region. Therefore, with a lack of the aforementioned synoptic support, mesoscale patterns, such as the sea-breeze circulation, will dictate temperatures and the most probable locations for convective initiation and coverage. Typical thunderstorm hazards, such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds, will be possible, but still cannot rule out isolated strong to severe pulse storms that are able to take advantage of the localized maximized ascent along boundary collisions even in the background of a fairly benign pattern.

The mesoscale driven weather pattern will continue for much of the long-term period as surface ridging remains firmly in place and synoptic features remain to the north of South Florida. With the advection of the surface ridge to the east, easterly surface flow across the region will remain dominant. This will act to feature the hottest temperatures across southwestern Florida for the time being as the Atlantic sea-breeze is able to traverse further inland. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the east coast of South Florida to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. Although heat indices will be less oppressive than the past couple of days, heat safety precautions should still be followed, especially for vulnerable populations.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period as easterly flow returns to the area. Best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be across Southern portions of the area today with TEMPOs added for MIA and TMB airports. Not enough confidence to include TEMPOs for other sites at this time. L/V flow is expected to return overnight.

MARINE
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters throughout the period. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be possible in and around shower and thunderstorm activity across our area waters.

BEACHES
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

With onshore wind flow returning to the east coast of South Florida, a gradual increase in rip current risks will materialize across the east coast through the remainder of the work-week. A moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for Palm Beach County beaches today.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 76 90 76 89 / 20 50 20 30 West Kendall 74 89 73 91 / 30 50 30 30 Opa-Locka 77 90 76 90 / 20 50 20 30 Homestead 75 88 76 89 / 30 50 30 30 Fort Lauderdale 77 88 76 87 / 20 50 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 76 88 76 88 / 20 50 20 30 Pembroke Pines 77 89 76 91 / 20 50 20 30 West Palm Beach 74 88 73 88 / 10 30 10 20 Boca Raton 76 87 75 89 / 20 40 20 30 Naples 74 91 75 93 / 0 30 20 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Naples (outer coast)
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Tue -- 12:03 AM EDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:29 AM EDT     1.32 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:16 AM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:16 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Naples (outer coast), Florida, Tide feet

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of)
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Tue -- 03:21 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:01 AM EDT     -0.28 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:28 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:36 AM EDT     1.05 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:27 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:54 PM EDT     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:22 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:16 PM EDT     1.07 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Ybel (0.4 Mi. NW of), Florida Current, knots

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