Sunrise 6:13 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 5:33 PM   Moonset 4:00 AM

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PMZ021 Southern Gulf Of California- 735 Pm Pdt Tue May 21 2024
Overnight - W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft in the evening, becoming seas 3 ft or less. Period 16 seconds. Wed - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 16 seconds. Wed night - Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming S to sw 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 15 seconds. Thu - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 15 seconds. Thu night - SW to W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 14 seconds. Fri - W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 14 seconds. Fri night - W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 13 seconds. Sat - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 13 seconds. Sat night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 13 seconds. Sun - NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 13 seconds. Sun night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 13 seconds.

PMZ005
No data

FXUS64 KMAF 212318 AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 618 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

All of the most impactful weather remains well to the north of our region over the next couple of days. We remain under modest ridging with broad southwesterly flow aloft. Today one shortwave trough lifts into the Great Lakes by this evening with another coming out of the Central Rocky Mountains. This does little for our weather today but these play more of a role tomorrow. Circling back, today remains hot and partly cloudy. Temperatures generally reside in the 90s this afternoon with 100s confined to the Rio Grande Valley and even 110s in the Big Bend. Given the excessive heat in the Big Bend, a Heat Advisory is in effect through this afternoon and early evening for the area. Unfortunately, a combination of some high clouds and the retreating dryline keeps temperatures warm across much of the area. Much of the Permian Basin and river valleys struggle to cool into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for those lucky enough to the west and in the higher elevations.

Slightly more interesting weather arrives tomorrow as the second trough moves across the Central Great Plains, aiding a cold front's southward trek into our neck of the woods. Initially this front is likely to get hung up very near the I-20 corridor during the afternoon. This should allow for slightly more refreshing 80s and lower 90s behind this front with everyone else remaining hot.
Temperatures well into the 90s and 100s can be expected ahead of the cold front and likely a touch warmer than today with the aide of compressional warming. Given this expectation, will add a Heat Advisory for Brewster County through the Davis and Chinati Mountains for the afternoon and early evening. Outside of temperatures, at least a slim but present threat of thunderstorms will exist for far eastern extremities of the area where low-level moisture holds on. Any thunderstorms that develop will quickly move southeast and out of the region by tomorrow night. The cold front will continue to sink south through the night and eventually clears us to the south. This brings slightly milder temperatures for all with lows primarily in the 60s for the lower elevations and even 50s for the higher elevations by Thursday morning. This relief is short-lived as you will find out though...

-Chehak

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Heading into Thursday, Wednesday's "cold" front will be but a memory for the northern tier of the area, with southerly return flow across eastern areas by daybreak and downsloping westerly flow across the higher terrain and adjacent plains. The dryline, progged to be in the vicinity of the TX/NM state line south to the Rio Grande Thursday morning will be quickly shunted eastward as westerly surface flow expands areawide in response to the development of a lee surface trough to the north of the region.
This downslope flow and compressional warming beneath southwesterly flow aloft will see temperatures once again climb to the middle to upper 90s for most, 100s along the river valleys, and 80s and lower 90s in the mountains. A trough skirting from the northern Rockies across the northern Plains Friday into Saturday will be way too far north to impact our weather locally, other than ensuring continued southwesterly flow aloft. Given little change in antecedent conditions, similar conditions are expected on Friday with some locations either a degree or two warmer or cooler. The only change of note this weekend is a shortwave that is progged to translate across the Four Corners Region, eastward into the South Central Plains. This shortwave will do little more than yield an uptick in wind speeds, allowing temperatures over the weekend to edge just a little bit hotter. For now, it looks like another round of Heat Advisory conditions are possible in the Davis and Chinati Mountains, Chisos Basin, and in Lower Brewster County along the Rio Grande both Saturday and Sunday, along with an uptick in fire weather concerns on Saturday, especially across the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of Southeast New Mexico and the Upper Trans Pecos.

Early next week, another trough is progged to move across the northern tier of the CONUS, resulting in quasi-zonal flow over Southeast New Mexico and West Texas. Highs Monday will be similar to prior days, albeit a couple degrees cooler, still topping out in the 90s for most, with 100s through the river valleys, and continued Heat Advisory conditions possible. Beyond Monday, cluster analyses and deterministic guidance are in fairly good agreement that the aforementioned trough will deepen once it reaches the Upper Midwest, resulting in an amplification of the pattern with ridging developing to the west in response to the deepening trough to the east. But, until then, hot and dry will continue to be the rule, with the benefits of recent rainfall becoming less and less pronounced each day.

JP

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Southwest winds will diminish overnight and become southeasterly before a cold front brings northwest winds 12-18Z. VFR conditions will remain.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue the next 7 days, with little to no chance of rain for most of the region. The only exception to this will be across far eastern areas from roughly Snyder to Sanderson on Wednesday afternoon and evening, where isolated thunderstorms capable of producing lightning strikes and erratic gusty winds are possible.
Fortunately, lightning strikes will generally remain out of range of areas west of the Pecos that have been mostly dry for the past few months, keeping concern for lightning starts low. However, greenup has largely been confined along and east of the Pecos, and the continued hot weather and drying trend will see widespread RHs under 5 percent west of the Pecos River Wednesday, expanding areawide through this weekend. Fortunately, winds to the west will remain around 15 mph each afternoon, somewhat limiting fire weather concerns, except in the complex terrain of the Guadalupe Mountains where local enhancements to wind speeds can be expected.
The only day that could see stronger winds looks to be Saturday as a shortwave passes to the north of the area, but until then, elevated and near critical conditions can be expected, with the possibility for localized critical conditions where terrain enhancements to winds/drying are felt, especially above 5000 feet.
Conditions will be closely monitored with Fire Danger Statements and/or Red Flag Warnings issued as needed.

JP

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Big Spring 69 83 66 99 / 10 20 10 0 Carlsbad 62 92 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 75 103 74 104 / 10 0 10 0 Fort Stockton 69 101 64 100 / 0 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 63 86 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 61 87 57 94 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 58 94 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 70 92 64 97 / 10 0 10 0 Odessa 71 92 65 97 / 10 0 10 0 Wink 67 96 62 99 / 0 0 0 0

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Lower Brewster County.

NM...None.

Topolobampo
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Tue -- 02:55 AM MST     -0.17 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 04:00 AM MST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:27 AM MST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:24 AM MST     0.77 meters High Tide
Tue -- 02:06 PM MST     0.39 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 05:32 PM MST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:58 PM MST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:11 PM MST     1.23 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Topolobampo, Sinaloa, Mexico, Tide feet

Yavaros
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Tue -- 02:49 AM MST     -0.12 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 04:00 AM MST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:27 AM MST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:19 AM MST     0.86 meters High Tide
Tue -- 02:14 PM MST     0.43 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 05:36 PM MST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:01 PM MST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:11 PM MST     1.20 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Yavaros, Sonora, Mexico, Tide feet

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