Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 2:05 PM   Moonset 2:08 AM

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GMZ042 Hawk Channel From Ocean Reef To Craig Key Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From Craig Key To West End Of Seven Mile Bridge Out To The Reef- Hawk Channel From West End Of Seven Mile Bridge To Halfmoon Shoal Out To The Reef- 420 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast to south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas around 1 foot, building to around 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop.Saturday - Southeast to south winds 10 to 15 knots, decreasing to 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet, subsiding to around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming smooth to a light chop.Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast to south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas around 1 foot, building to around 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers.Sunday - Southeast to south winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest to west 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet, subsiding to around 1 foot. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.Sunday night - West to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Monday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Monday night - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday - Northeast winds near 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Northeast to east winds near 5 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 420 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis - The western extent of a low-level ridge axis extends west-northwest through the bahamas and across the keys. Southeast breezes will tend to peak and lull tonight through Sunday as the heating and cooling of south florida and cuba modulate the local wind forecast. There may be a break in the rain-free conditions Sunday night through Tuesday, followed by variable breezes Tuesday through Wednesday.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 15, 2024 - .
49 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 32 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 24 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 27 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 29 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 8 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 3 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KMFL 172320 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 720 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

A broad mid-level ridge will build over the Florida Peninsula today and hang around through Saturday, helping to stabilize the atmosphere and lead to mostly dry weather in the short term period.
However, isolated shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible for coastal locations mainly on the Atlantic side as the sea breeze boundary pushes inland in the afternoon and early evening hours today and tomorrow. Additionally, while the broad high pressure and presence of a dry layer in the mid-levels should inhibit storm growth, there will remain the chance for a couple of stronger storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and small hail along the sea breeze.

Since the weather will be a bit more stable over the next few days, the main headline will be the abnormally hot conditions for this time of year. The setup responsible for sparking this heat wave is both the presence of a shortwave trough over the Gulf states that will be advecting through the Southeast states and the high pressure over the Florida Peninsula. This pattern produces a warm and moist south-southwest flow over the region while sinking air under the high pressure also leads to warming, and this combination is establishing the heat wave. In addition, high pressure typically leads to less cloud cover, which would allow for extra diurnal surface heating.

With all that said, heat indices today are expected to range around 103-107F and thus a Heat Advisory is in place for only Miami-Dade today with heat indices expected to exceed 105F for multiple hours.
General high temperatures for today are expected in the low to mid 90s. For Saturday, temperatures are expected to rise further due to reasons stated above into the mid to upper 90s with heat indices up to 107-100F, so another Heat Advisory will be possible for tomorrow if trends continue and could spread to multiple counties. Overall, whether advisories or warnings are issued or not, anyone sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended time outside or take cooling breaks and stay hydrated if required to be outside.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Increased rain chances return for Sunday and early next week as an upper level short wave approaches and then crosses the area, and a surface front very slowly crosses the state of Florida Sunday and Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected especially during the afternoon and early evening hours, with locally heavy rain possibly leading to a few instances of urban flooding across the metro. A few storms may be on the strong to severe side, with damaging wind gusts from localized downbursts being the main threat.

Upper levels ridging will try to build in early to mid next week, however the mid and upper level trough will linger just to the east of the peninsula. While PoPs decrease somewhat, daily chances of afternoon showers/storms will remain in the forecast each day, primarily driven by diurnal sea-breeze convection in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of next week with highs in the low to mid 90s through Monday. As the flow becomes more easterly the east coast metro will get a reprieve of a few degrees towards the middle of next week with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, while middle 90s will continue over interior and SW FL. Overnight lows will remain very warm in the 70s to around 80 through Monday and then lows will retreat towards normal values through the middle of next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through the 00Z TAF period.
Winds will become light and variable by 03Z with benign conditions expected overnight. Tomorrow, winds will shift to the S/SE and become breezy in the afternoon with the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Activity is most likely to impact the eastern TAF sites beginning 16-18Z as the sea breeze kicks in.

MARINE
Issued at 1231 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Mainly benign conditions today and over the weekend with light to moderate southwesterly to southerly flow. There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Atlantic waters today and tomorrow, which could create locally chaotic seas at times and gusty winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 81 94 80 93 / 0 30 10 60 West Kendall 77 97 78 95 / 0 20 10 50 Opa-Locka 79 96 80 94 / 0 30 10 60 Homestead 79 94 80 93 / 0 20 10 50 Fort Lauderdale 80 92 80 91 / 0 30 20 70 N Ft Lauderdale 79 93 80 92 / 10 30 20 70 Pembroke Pines 80 97 80 96 / 0 30 10 70 West Palm Beach 76 94 77 91 / 10 40 20 80 Boca Raton 78 94 78 93 / 10 40 20 70 Naples 79 92 80 91 / 0 10 20 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.

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Tavernier Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:23 AM EDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:51 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:58 PM EDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Tavernier Creek, Hwy. 1 bridge, Hawk Channel, Florida, Tide feet

Long Key
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:28 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:55 AM EDT     0.74 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:33 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:42 AM EDT     -0.88 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:21 PM EDT     0.81 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Long Key, east of drawbridge, Florida Current, knots

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