Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 5:35 PM   Moonset 4:07 AM

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GMZ043 Expires:202405210900;;573557 Fzus52 Kkey 210218 Cwfkey
coastal waters forecast for the florida keys national weather service key west fl 1018 pm edt Mon may 20 2024
florida bay, hawk channel and straits of florida from ocean reef to south of dry tortugas, and the extreme southeastern gulf of mexico, including the florida keys national marine sanctuary
seas are given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
wave detail will include details about the period and direction of origin for the highest energy waves. Long-period swells coming from a different direction than the wind would be included in the wave detail.
gmz042>044-210900- hawk channel from ocean reef to craig key out to the reef- hawk channel from craig key to west end of seven mile bridge out to the reef- hawk channel from west end of seven mile bridge to halfmoon shoal out to the reef- 1018 pm edt Mon may 20 2024
Overnight - West to northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest to north. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday - North winds near 5 knots, becoming variable. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Tuesday night - Variable winds near 5 knots, becoming northeast to east. Seas 1 foot or less. NEarshore waters smooth. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas around 1 foot, building to 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop, becoming a light to moderate chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Wednesday night - East to southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light to moderate chop, becoming a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday - East winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - East winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Friday - East to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 1 foot. NEarshore waters smooth to a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night through Saturday night - East to southeast winds near 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. NEarshore waters a light chop. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.

GMZ005 Synopsis For Keys Coastal Waters From Ocean Reef To Dry Tortugas 1018 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2024
Synopsis - Thunderstorm coverage has all but dissipated and breezes have clocked around to the west and northwest. Another round of showers and Thunderstorms may develop overnight but with less coverage expected. Tuesday through Wednesday, breezes will gradually shift to the east as high pressure in the western north atlantic builds back in across the region. Gentle east to southeast breezes will resume Friday through Saturday.
the approximate shoreward edge of the gulf stream as of may 15, 2024 - .
49 nm south of dry tortugas light - .on loggerhead key. 32 nm south of cosgrove shoal light - .off the marquesas keys. 24 nm south of sand key light - .off key west. 27 nm south of looe key - .off big pine key. 29 nm south of sombrero key light - .off marathon. 8 nm southeast of alligator reef light - .off islamorada. 3 nm southeast of molasses reef light - .off key largo.
gulf stream information courtesy of the national weather service in key west.

FXUS62 KKEY 210256 AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1056 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Convection earlier in the day quickly wound down by the mid afternoon and by sunset nearly all the convection had cleared out from the Florida Keys coastal waters. Of note, Marathon International Airport shattered their daily precipitation record with just over 7 inches. Once the convective influences on winds died down, the winds clocked around from the west and northwest.
Despite the wet and stormy day today, temperatures rebounded in the late afternoon and are have only fallen down into the lower 80s. Dew points are a little more reasonable with values in the lower to mid 70s as opposed to upper 70s to near 80.

As mentioned previously, KBYX radar is convection free in our immediate forecast area. There is ongoing activity out across the Bahamas and moving away from our area. Looking at CIMSS analysis, there is still a spoke of vorticity that has yet to pivot through the area. Hi-res CAMs indicate that as this spoke pushes through overnight that new convection could fire, mainly in our western waters. However, looking at infrared satellite imagery, there is no evidence of any new convection firing yet along the west coast of Florida. That is not to say it still can't happen but it calls into question how likely we are to see redevelopment overnight. Pros: there is a spoke of low to mid- level vorticity, i.e. source of lift, progged to swing through and there is still over 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Cons: There is much drier air which has resulted in a lower precipitable water value from 12 hours ago and many of the boundaries has been either pushed out or washed out. Therefore, reluctant to change PoPs from low end chance (30 percent), but it remains to be seen if this is too generous.

MARINE
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Thunderstorm coverage has all but dissipated and breezes have clocked around to the west and northwest. Another round of showers and thunderstorms may develop overnight but with less coverage expected. Tuesday through Wednesday, breezes will gradually shift to the east as high pressure in the western North Atlantic builds back in across the region. Gentle east to southeast breezes will resume Friday through Saturday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions will likely prevail through the overnight and into Tuesday. Convection may redevelop overnight but stay to the west of the terminals. Light and variable winds will become northwest overnight and then return to light and variable after dawn Tuesday.

KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GM...None.

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Boot Key Harbor
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Tue -- 01:47 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:49 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:58 PM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:20 PM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Boot Key Harbor, Vaca Key, Florida, Tide feet

Moser Channel (swingbridge)
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Tue -- 02:29 AM EDT     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:11 AM EDT     1.04 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:56 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:21 PM EDT     -2.05 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:35 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:43 PM EDT     1.77 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Moser Channel (swingbridge), Florida Current, knots

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