Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Suárez, PR
May 21, 2024 4:17 AM AST (08:17 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:41 AM Sunset 6:48 PM Moonrise 5:22 PM Moonset 4:00 AM |
AMZ083 Atlantic From 22n To 25n Between 60w And 65w- 1026 Am Edt Tue Mar 26 2024
Today - NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
Tonight - NW to N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
Wed - W to nw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
Wed night - W to nw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Scattered showers.
Thu - W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Thu night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Fri - W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Sat - N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Sat night - N to ne winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
AMZ005
No data
No data
FXCA62 TJSJ 210723 AFDSJU
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 323 AM AST Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
Another very hot day is expected across the islands, especially along coastal and low-elevated areas. A wetter weather pattern is expected to begin on Wednesday, as a surface and mid to upper level trough approaches Hispaniola. Wednesday is expected to be the wettest day, but showers and thunderstorms will continue to stream into the islands through early in the weekend. The risk for flooding will be elevated.
SHORT TERM
Today through Thursday...
Excessive heating due to the combination of warm air and southeasterly surface wind flow will result hot heat indices for the urban and coastal sections in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands during the later morning hours through the afternoon. Therefore from 10am to 6pm local time, an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the coastal areas of southwest to northwest Puerto Rico to the San Juan Metro area and St. Croix. There is also a Heat Advisory for northeastern to southeastern PR, also Vieques, Culebra, and the northern USVI. Once all this heating occurs, afternoon convection may develop near the San Juan Metropolitan Area and the interior, with the northwest quadrant having a high chance for thunderstorms after 3pm under the east-southeasterly wind pattern. Downpours may result in ponding of water or flooding of poorly drained areas in these locations.
Tomorrow onward, an approaching deep-layer trough aloft will increase instability across the region. Additionally, moisture from a trade wind perturbation and plenty of tropical moisture lifted from the southern Caribbean will pool above-normal moisture content over the islands. Therefore, a Hydrologic Outlook (ESFSJU) was issued for Wednesday through Friday for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands due to an increased risk of flooding.
Currently, models suggest heavy rainfall is possible for most of the region for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, as winds accelerate over night on Wednesday this will also bring the chance for squally weather conditions. Thunderstorms will be seen during this time as the strong winds are expected across the mid to upper-levels. On the bright side, temperature will be noticeably lower due to the increase of cloud coverage and showers.
LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday...
An unsettled weather environment is expected to persist on Friday, with a surface low now centered north of Hispaniola, and still under the influence of a mid to upper level trough. The low will drive the winds from the south at the surface, and from the southwest a little bit above that. Pulses of clouds, showers and thunderstorms are expected to move from the Caribbean Sea into portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The Galvez-Davison Index indicate the potential for scattered thunderstorms and heavy rain at times. It is possible that these thunderstorms will bring gusty winds at times.
On Saturday, the islands will be in between a moist channel near the Mona Passage, and a mid level high pressure centered just to the east of the Leeward Islands. This high will push some drier air closer to the Virgin Islands, possibly with some Saharan dust.
Nevertheless, sunshine will begin to peek across the region, and with all the available moisture, convection will fire up in the afternoon, favoring portions of eastern and northeastern Puerto Rico, then moving into the waters of Vieques, Culebra and the Virgin Islands. With enough sunshine, heat indices will creep again above 100 F.
The pattern becomes more seasonal on Sunday and early in the workweek. The trough will gradually lose influence in the region, while a mid to upper ridge gets established across the northeastern Caribbean. The pressure gradient will remain weak on Sunday, with a low level steering flow out of the southeast on Sunday, at around 6- 9 kts, and recovering speeds on Monday and Tuesday, generally from the east at 10 to 12 knots. Each of these days, enough sunshine will trigger afternoon convection, with the potential for heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms across the interior, northwestern and north-central Puerto Rico. Passing showers will move across the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico at times too.
In summary, the main risk on Friday and Saturday will be flooding and mudslides, as well as rapid river rises in areas that receive heavy rain. Then, for Sunday and early next week, the flooding threat will be limited for the northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico.
It will become hot too, as heat indices go above 102 degrees each afternoon.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail. After 16z an increase of rain is expected across the Cordillera Central and around TJBQ, where TS are possible to bring periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings. Winds will from the SE at 8-13 kts, with stronger wind gusts and sea breezes variations.
MARINE
A surface high pressure across the central and northeast Atlantic will drive the trade winds from the southeast at moderate speed.
A trough will develop south of Hispaniola, increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across the local waters Wednesday onward. This trough may increase winds across the Mona Passage and Atlantic waters Wednesday night into Friday. Winds will slow down again by the weekend.
BEACH FORECAST
Increasing winds across southwestern Puerto Rico and near St.
Croix will make the rip current risk to reach moderate. Elsewhere, a low rip current risk will persist.
HYDROLOGY
A wet pattern is expected to begin on Wednesday, with showers and thunderstorms reaching the islands at times. So far, most rivers are running near normal or above normal, hence any additional rains could result in rapid river rises, as well as some flooding and mudslides. Conditions will gradually dry out during the weekend.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-005-008-010-011.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ002-003-012-013.
VI...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ002.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001.
AM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 323 AM AST Tue May 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
Another very hot day is expected across the islands, especially along coastal and low-elevated areas. A wetter weather pattern is expected to begin on Wednesday, as a surface and mid to upper level trough approaches Hispaniola. Wednesday is expected to be the wettest day, but showers and thunderstorms will continue to stream into the islands through early in the weekend. The risk for flooding will be elevated.
SHORT TERM
Today through Thursday...
Excessive heating due to the combination of warm air and southeasterly surface wind flow will result hot heat indices for the urban and coastal sections in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands during the later morning hours through the afternoon. Therefore from 10am to 6pm local time, an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the coastal areas of southwest to northwest Puerto Rico to the San Juan Metro area and St. Croix. There is also a Heat Advisory for northeastern to southeastern PR, also Vieques, Culebra, and the northern USVI. Once all this heating occurs, afternoon convection may develop near the San Juan Metropolitan Area and the interior, with the northwest quadrant having a high chance for thunderstorms after 3pm under the east-southeasterly wind pattern. Downpours may result in ponding of water or flooding of poorly drained areas in these locations.
Tomorrow onward, an approaching deep-layer trough aloft will increase instability across the region. Additionally, moisture from a trade wind perturbation and plenty of tropical moisture lifted from the southern Caribbean will pool above-normal moisture content over the islands. Therefore, a Hydrologic Outlook (ESFSJU) was issued for Wednesday through Friday for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands due to an increased risk of flooding.
Currently, models suggest heavy rainfall is possible for most of the region for Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, as winds accelerate over night on Wednesday this will also bring the chance for squally weather conditions. Thunderstorms will be seen during this time as the strong winds are expected across the mid to upper-levels. On the bright side, temperature will be noticeably lower due to the increase of cloud coverage and showers.
LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday...
An unsettled weather environment is expected to persist on Friday, with a surface low now centered north of Hispaniola, and still under the influence of a mid to upper level trough. The low will drive the winds from the south at the surface, and from the southwest a little bit above that. Pulses of clouds, showers and thunderstorms are expected to move from the Caribbean Sea into portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The Galvez-Davison Index indicate the potential for scattered thunderstorms and heavy rain at times. It is possible that these thunderstorms will bring gusty winds at times.
On Saturday, the islands will be in between a moist channel near the Mona Passage, and a mid level high pressure centered just to the east of the Leeward Islands. This high will push some drier air closer to the Virgin Islands, possibly with some Saharan dust.
Nevertheless, sunshine will begin to peek across the region, and with all the available moisture, convection will fire up in the afternoon, favoring portions of eastern and northeastern Puerto Rico, then moving into the waters of Vieques, Culebra and the Virgin Islands. With enough sunshine, heat indices will creep again above 100 F.
The pattern becomes more seasonal on Sunday and early in the workweek. The trough will gradually lose influence in the region, while a mid to upper ridge gets established across the northeastern Caribbean. The pressure gradient will remain weak on Sunday, with a low level steering flow out of the southeast on Sunday, at around 6- 9 kts, and recovering speeds on Monday and Tuesday, generally from the east at 10 to 12 knots. Each of these days, enough sunshine will trigger afternoon convection, with the potential for heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms across the interior, northwestern and north-central Puerto Rico. Passing showers will move across the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico at times too.
In summary, the main risk on Friday and Saturday will be flooding and mudslides, as well as rapid river rises in areas that receive heavy rain. Then, for Sunday and early next week, the flooding threat will be limited for the northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico.
It will become hot too, as heat indices go above 102 degrees each afternoon.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail. After 16z an increase of rain is expected across the Cordillera Central and around TJBQ, where TS are possible to bring periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings. Winds will from the SE at 8-13 kts, with stronger wind gusts and sea breezes variations.
MARINE
A surface high pressure across the central and northeast Atlantic will drive the trade winds from the southeast at moderate speed.
A trough will develop south of Hispaniola, increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across the local waters Wednesday onward. This trough may increase winds across the Mona Passage and Atlantic waters Wednesday night into Friday. Winds will slow down again by the weekend.
BEACH FORECAST
Increasing winds across southwestern Puerto Rico and near St.
Croix will make the rip current risk to reach moderate. Elsewhere, a low rip current risk will persist.
HYDROLOGY
A wet pattern is expected to begin on Wednesday, with showers and thunderstorms reaching the islands at times. So far, most rivers are running near normal or above normal, hence any additional rains could result in rapid river rises, as well as some flooding and mudslides. Conditions will gradually dry out during the weekend.
SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PR...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ001-005-008-010-011.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ002-003-012-013.
VI...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ002.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001.
AM...None.
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Virgin,Islands/San,Juan/Cayey,PR
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