Monday, February6, 2023
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
For Bay City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/3/2023 Added localized weather radar images. The national image is still available by clicking the heading. Please let me know if you encounter any issues with the new images.
1/7/2023 Added second weather radar images for next closest station.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 5:54PM Monday February 6, 2023 5:05 AM EST (10:05 UTC) Moonrise 6:49PMMoonset 8:38AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 405 Am Est Mon Feb 6 2023
.gale warning in effect from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon...
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the south in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales. Partly cloudy in the evening, then cloudy with light rain likely, a slight chance of light freezing rain and snow after midnight.
Tuesday..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots early in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 knot gales. Cloudy.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy in the evening becoming partly cloudy. Waves omitted due to ice coverage. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202302061715;;885578 FZUS53 KDTX 060905 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 405 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-061715-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, MI
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location: 43.58, -83.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 060853 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 353 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2023

DISCUSSION.

Boundary layer moisture and associated stratus clouds are proving more resilient against downslope flow from northern Lower MI since midnight, and while some breaks still remain possible leading up to sunrise, it may take passage of the surface high before a decreasing cloud trend occurs in SE MI. Satellite trends to the west toward the Lake Michigan shoreline do indicate some breaks occurring where surface high pressure is more strongly inbound which is expected to migrate eastward with the ridge axis during the day. Partial sunshine then helps lift temperatures into the mid 30s to near 40 for highs this afternoon.

High pressure departs quickly this evening in favor of low pressure spanning central Canada and the Plains. The broad mid level trough becomes increasingly split and progressive over the Plains which carries the surface low into the Midwest followed by the cold front across Lower MI late tonight and early Tuesday. Moisture transport along and ahead of the front brings a narrow band of precipitation into SE MI after midnight which actually turns out to be favorable timing for an all rain scenario. Low clouds are expected to continue breaking up or be scoured northward this evening which opens a window for an evening temperature drop, especially in the Thumb region where upper 20s are possible before midnight. South wind then ramps up considerably into the mid 20 mph range with a few gusts in the mid 30 mph range which leads to an aggressive temperature surge above freezing across the region before the precipitation band arrives. The northern fringe of Midland and Bay counties and the northern Thumb region are the locations to monitor with the greatest temperature sensitivity. However, surface temperature guidance matches up well with deterministic model soundings and HREF 2m temp and precipitation type that project some above freezing temperature cushion late tonight through Tuesday morning before the moisture axis sweeps eastward.

Mild air remains in place through most of Tuesday morning before the cold front sweeps through the area. Late morning to early afternoon highs in the 40s look good across SE MI before low level cold advection gains traction but then just as quickly turns more neutral during the evening. Prospects for lingering clouds are also on the high side which combines with the glancing shot of cold air for low temperatures just in the mid and upper 20s by Wednesday morning. Inbound high pressure is of Pacific origin and brings mild westerly low level flow into Lower MI while tracking through the Ohio valley. Warm advection and filtered sunshine then carry highs back into the 40s Wednesday afternoon.

High clouds thicken rapidly toward Wednesday evening as the current 4 corners low pressure system is kicked into the southern Plains and then toward the Great Lakes. An increase in model solution spread is noted on this system but is more related to timing differences while track is firmly to our west. This keeps SE MI on the warm side of the system and in an all rain scenario as precipitation spreads in Wednesday night and lasts through most of Thursday. Guidance high temperatures for Thursday range from near 50 at the Ohio border to the upper 30s Midland/Bay counties and reflect a surface low track through central Lower MI. Cooler air filters in behind the system but with temperatures still hovering above normal to finish the week.

MARINE.

Northwest flow will decrease and reorient southerly today as high pressure quickly slides across the region. Marine conditions will then rapidly deteriorate after midnight tonight into Tuesday as a strong low pressure system develops over Hudson Bay and pulls another cold front across the region. A tightening pressure gradient between the low to the north and the departing high pressure will result in increasing south to southwesterly flow over the local waters and gales across Lake Huron. Peak gusts to 40 knots will be possible over the central and southern Lake Huron waters, and waves in excess of 15 feet Tuesday morning across the northern Lake Huron waters. Marine conditions will temporarily improve Wednesday before another low pressure system emerging out of the Gulf brings another potential round of gales to the local waters Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1138 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2023

AVIATION .

Satellite depiction of upstream stratus suggests that a more pessimistic forecast is in order tonight into Monday morning. While subsidence in the wake of this passing disturbance may very well begin to break up the solid OVC stratus field that is currently overspreading the region, some degree of MVFR ceiling seems to be a reasonable play into the morning hours before lower clouds scatter out as high pressure builds into the region. Northwest flow 8-10 knots will become light/variable with this aforementioned high and then swing to the southwest as the high settles southeast of the region.

For DTW . Will maintain MVFR cigs into the overnight with some chance of lower VFR by morning as subsidence increases. Thereafter, VFR conditions until some increase in low level moisture ensues on southeast flow very late in the forecast (late Monday night into Tuesday morning).

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for cigs aob 5kft feet overnight, medium into Monday morning, low by Monday afternoon.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . None.

Lake Huron . Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair . None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . None.



DISCUSSION . BT MARINE . IRL AVIATION . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi65 min NNW 11G12 24°F 30.17
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 35 mi25 min NNW 6G9.9 22°F 30.20
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 52 mi25 min NNE 2.9G5.1 21°F 30.20

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Last 24 hrS5
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1 day agoS9
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2 days agoNW14
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KHYX SAGINAW COUNTY H W BROWNE,MI 10 sm10 minN 0510 smOvercast25°F19°F80%30.21
KMBS MBS INTL,MI 11 sm12 minN 0910 smOvercast25°F18°F74%30.21
KIKW JACK BARSTOW,MI 21 sm10 minN 0310 smOvercast25°F19°F80%30.21
KCFS TUSCOLA AREA,MI 24 sm10 minNNW 0510 smOvercast27°F19°F74%30.19

Link to 5 minute data for KHYX

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS9S8S11S12S13
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2 days agoW7W10
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W7W12W9W3SW3SW4SW4S3S3S3SE4SE5S6S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station
Detroit, MI
Gaylord, MI



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