Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mount Sinai, NY
May 15, 2024 8:33 AM EDT (12:33 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:32 AM Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 12:23 PM Moonset 2:07 AM |
ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 648 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through Thursday afternoon - .
Today - E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Periods of light rain this morning, then chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 3 seconds. Periods of rain.
Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 4 seconds. Periods of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 4 seconds, becoming ne 1 ft at 4 seconds. Chance of rain.
Fri - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 4 seconds.
Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds.
Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Sat night - E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun night - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 648 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - Low pressure slowly approaches from the south today. Low pressure then gets closer to long island tonight into early Thursday before departing slowly east and gradually away from the waters Thursday into Thursday night. Brief high pressure builds from the northeast Friday. This will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure over the weekend.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KOKX 151142 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 742 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure slowly approaches from the south today. Low pressure then gets closer to Long Island tonight into early Thursday before departing slowly east and gradually away from the region Thursday into Thursday night. Brief high pressure builds from the northeast Friday. This will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure over the weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Forecast on track. Just some slight adjustments with POPs for rain to better match with observed trends. Rain expected to be light this morning.
Low pressure will slowly approach from the south. Rain will continue to overspread the region today and become more widespread.
Numerical weather prediction models convey that forcing for lift increases as shown by mid level positive vorticity advection this afternoon. Also indicated is isentropic lift, allowing for the rain to be overspreading and expanding throughout the area this afternoon. The models also indicate a continuously moist environment with layer precipitable water reaching values mainly between 1.2 and 1.4 inches.
Temperatures stay in the 60s today with the rain which for most locations will be periodic or intermittent.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The low gets closest to Long Island tonight and then slowly makes its way out into the Atlantic Thursday into Thursday night.
High pressure will briefly build in from the Canadian Maritimes for Friday and Friday night.
Models overall have shifted farther north with the low and the speed of the low appears to be lower compared to previous forecasts also. This has resulted in higher POPs for tonight and Thursday with rain likely for much of the two time periods.
Also with the closer proximity of the low, low level omega is forecast to increase especially across eastern sections of the forecast region. In addition, the pressure gradient will become tight, making for gusty winds from the NE tonight into Thursday.
Models have also depicted Showalter Indices getting near zero across mainly the southern coastal areas for Thursday, so have a slight chance of thunderstorms.
The rain tonight into Thursday is expected to be steady and light to moderate at times. Some brief locally heavy rain will be possible as the layer precipitable waters will be very similar to the previous day.
Chances for rain remain Thursday night and eventually diminish late Thursday night as low pressure moves farther away. Drier air will eventually come into the area late Thursday night into Friday. Dry conditions are forecast to persist through Friday night.
Temperatures still mainly in the 60s for highs Thursday with a rebound of high temperatures on Friday back to near to slightly above normal values, mostly upper 60s to mid 70s with more sun and decreasing NE flow compared to the previous day.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The NBM was generally used for the extended period with no major changes in the forecast. There still remains a good deal of uncertainty with the handling of the next surface low pressure system in the vicinity of the area over the weekend and into early next week. The previous discussion follows:
Another system very much like the one preceding it midweek will potentially impact the area over the weekend. However, there is quite a bit of spread in the globals with the southern branch closed low as it moves near the Mid Atlantic coast at the end of the weekend and offshore early next week. This seems partly due to the interaction of a northern stream shortwave trough lifting across the Great Lakes Friday and into eastern Canada over the weekend. While the two streams remain separate, their influence on one another will determine the placement of the upper low. The latest ECMWF takes the upper low and shears it off with the bulk of the energy moving into the Southeast U.S. The GFS and Canadian have the low track much farther north with the potential for the area to get into the better forcing just north of its track. The ECMWF is a mainly dry forecast with surface ridging remaining in place. Thus, the NBM was followed with some adjustments based on the aforementioned operational run and the latest consensus forecast. This gives the area increasing chances of rain Saturday afternoon/evening through Sunday. Weak high pressure may move into the area on Monday.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast over the weekend. There is good reason to expect changes in the forecast with subsequent issuances.
Highs during the period will be closer to normal on Monday, but several degrees below over the weekend due to the chances of rain.
This could very well change due to the differences previously mentioned in the low track. Lows will be on the mild side due to a prolonged period of cloud cover forecast.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A low pressure slowly deepens and moves northward up the Mid- Atlantic coast to just south of the area by this evening.
Widely variable conditions this morning with categories anywhere from locally VFR in and around the NYC metro and eastern terminals to localized IFR or lower for KHPN, KTEB, KEWR, and KSWF. Conditions expected to stabilize by mid-morning with largely MVFR or IFR conditions around the NYC metro and gradually diminishing for the eastern terminals. Some marginal improvement possible early afternoon to MVFR before cigs once again drop to IFR by evening. Confidence of the timing of category changes due to cigs is low.
SHRA continues much of the day, slowly overspreading the eastern areas. While there may be some breaks in the rain, most of the day should be raining than not. More steady rain expected tonight with the approach of the low to the south.
Light and variable flow becomes ESE this morning and increases to around 10 kt. Winds continue to back to the E and then NE through the day, and increasing to around 15kt, mainly along the coast. Some gusts up to 20-25 kt are possible but should be occasional, so did not include in the TAFs at this time. Gusts remain possible through the night though occurrence should be occasional until Thursday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely through the TAF period for the timing of changing flight categories due to -SHRA and cigs. Low confidence in timing and duration of IFR cigs this morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: IFR to MVFR early, possibly improving to VFR late in the day. A chance of showers, especially early. NE winds G20kt.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower late.
Saturday and Sunday: IFR/MVFR possible. Chance of showers. SE winds G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Conditions trend from below SCA much of today to SCA level wind gusts late this afternoon along the ocean mostly. Then all waters will have SCA levels gusts tonight through much of Thursday. Some SCA gusts could linger into Thursday night.
Below SCA gusts expected Friday into Friday night.
Seas on the ocean start out below SCA today and then get into SCA range tonight and likely remain at SCA levels thereafter through Friday night. SCA level seas also forecast for extreme Eastern LI Sound (East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River)
tonight into Thursday. Otherwise, non-ocean waters look to remain below SCA levels during the short term that goes through Friday night.
Lingering wave heights near 5 feet on the ocean will result in SCA conditions continuing on Saturday. The waters then look to remain below SCA thresholds through Sunday but exact placement in a low pressure system to the south may change the forecast.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the beginning of next week.
Rainfall in the today through Thursday time frame with amounts on average between 0.25 and 1.25 inches. Can not rule out a few isolated higher amounts near 1.5 inches with Long Island being the best spot to see those higher values.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 742 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure slowly approaches from the south today. Low pressure then gets closer to Long Island tonight into early Thursday before departing slowly east and gradually away from the region Thursday into Thursday night. Brief high pressure builds from the northeast Friday. This will be followed by another frontal system and potential wave of low pressure over the weekend. High pressure then builds in for early next week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Forecast on track. Just some slight adjustments with POPs for rain to better match with observed trends. Rain expected to be light this morning.
Low pressure will slowly approach from the south. Rain will continue to overspread the region today and become more widespread.
Numerical weather prediction models convey that forcing for lift increases as shown by mid level positive vorticity advection this afternoon. Also indicated is isentropic lift, allowing for the rain to be overspreading and expanding throughout the area this afternoon. The models also indicate a continuously moist environment with layer precipitable water reaching values mainly between 1.2 and 1.4 inches.
Temperatures stay in the 60s today with the rain which for most locations will be periodic or intermittent.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
The low gets closest to Long Island tonight and then slowly makes its way out into the Atlantic Thursday into Thursday night.
High pressure will briefly build in from the Canadian Maritimes for Friday and Friday night.
Models overall have shifted farther north with the low and the speed of the low appears to be lower compared to previous forecasts also. This has resulted in higher POPs for tonight and Thursday with rain likely for much of the two time periods.
Also with the closer proximity of the low, low level omega is forecast to increase especially across eastern sections of the forecast region. In addition, the pressure gradient will become tight, making for gusty winds from the NE tonight into Thursday.
Models have also depicted Showalter Indices getting near zero across mainly the southern coastal areas for Thursday, so have a slight chance of thunderstorms.
The rain tonight into Thursday is expected to be steady and light to moderate at times. Some brief locally heavy rain will be possible as the layer precipitable waters will be very similar to the previous day.
Chances for rain remain Thursday night and eventually diminish late Thursday night as low pressure moves farther away. Drier air will eventually come into the area late Thursday night into Friday. Dry conditions are forecast to persist through Friday night.
Temperatures still mainly in the 60s for highs Thursday with a rebound of high temperatures on Friday back to near to slightly above normal values, mostly upper 60s to mid 70s with more sun and decreasing NE flow compared to the previous day.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The NBM was generally used for the extended period with no major changes in the forecast. There still remains a good deal of uncertainty with the handling of the next surface low pressure system in the vicinity of the area over the weekend and into early next week. The previous discussion follows:
Another system very much like the one preceding it midweek will potentially impact the area over the weekend. However, there is quite a bit of spread in the globals with the southern branch closed low as it moves near the Mid Atlantic coast at the end of the weekend and offshore early next week. This seems partly due to the interaction of a northern stream shortwave trough lifting across the Great Lakes Friday and into eastern Canada over the weekend. While the two streams remain separate, their influence on one another will determine the placement of the upper low. The latest ECMWF takes the upper low and shears it off with the bulk of the energy moving into the Southeast U.S. The GFS and Canadian have the low track much farther north with the potential for the area to get into the better forcing just north of its track. The ECMWF is a mainly dry forecast with surface ridging remaining in place. Thus, the NBM was followed with some adjustments based on the aforementioned operational run and the latest consensus forecast. This gives the area increasing chances of rain Saturday afternoon/evening through Sunday. Weak high pressure may move into the area on Monday.
There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast over the weekend. There is good reason to expect changes in the forecast with subsequent issuances.
Highs during the period will be closer to normal on Monday, but several degrees below over the weekend due to the chances of rain.
This could very well change due to the differences previously mentioned in the low track. Lows will be on the mild side due to a prolonged period of cloud cover forecast.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A low pressure slowly deepens and moves northward up the Mid- Atlantic coast to just south of the area by this evening.
Widely variable conditions this morning with categories anywhere from locally VFR in and around the NYC metro and eastern terminals to localized IFR or lower for KHPN, KTEB, KEWR, and KSWF. Conditions expected to stabilize by mid-morning with largely MVFR or IFR conditions around the NYC metro and gradually diminishing for the eastern terminals. Some marginal improvement possible early afternoon to MVFR before cigs once again drop to IFR by evening. Confidence of the timing of category changes due to cigs is low.
SHRA continues much of the day, slowly overspreading the eastern areas. While there may be some breaks in the rain, most of the day should be raining than not. More steady rain expected tonight with the approach of the low to the south.
Light and variable flow becomes ESE this morning and increases to around 10 kt. Winds continue to back to the E and then NE through the day, and increasing to around 15kt, mainly along the coast. Some gusts up to 20-25 kt are possible but should be occasional, so did not include in the TAFs at this time. Gusts remain possible through the night though occurrence should be occasional until Thursday morning.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely through the TAF period for the timing of changing flight categories due to -SHRA and cigs. Low confidence in timing and duration of IFR cigs this morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: IFR to MVFR early, possibly improving to VFR late in the day. A chance of showers, especially early. NE winds G20kt.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower late.
Saturday and Sunday: IFR/MVFR possible. Chance of showers. SE winds G15-20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Conditions trend from below SCA much of today to SCA level wind gusts late this afternoon along the ocean mostly. Then all waters will have SCA levels gusts tonight through much of Thursday. Some SCA gusts could linger into Thursday night.
Below SCA gusts expected Friday into Friday night.
Seas on the ocean start out below SCA today and then get into SCA range tonight and likely remain at SCA levels thereafter through Friday night. SCA level seas also forecast for extreme Eastern LI Sound (East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River)
tonight into Thursday. Otherwise, non-ocean waters look to remain below SCA levels during the short term that goes through Friday night.
Lingering wave heights near 5 feet on the ocean will result in SCA conditions continuing on Saturday. The waters then look to remain below SCA thresholds through Sunday but exact placement in a low pressure system to the south may change the forecast.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the beginning of next week.
Rainfall in the today through Thursday time frame with amounts on average between 0.25 and 1.25 inches. Can not rule out a few isolated higher amounts near 1.5 inches with Long Island being the best spot to see those higher values.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 16 mi | 76 min | NE 2.9G | 58°F | 29.85 | |||
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 23 mi | 76 min | NE 1.9G | 59°F | 56°F | 29.91 | ||
| 44022 - Execution Rocks | 37 mi | 64 min | ENE 9.7 | 57°F | 29.86 | 57°F | ||
| KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY | 40 mi | 76 min | ENE 1G | 58°F | 29.88 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KISP LONG ISLAND MAC ARTHUR,NY | 12 sm | 37 min | E 04 | 6 sm | Overcast | Mist | 59°F | 57°F | 94% | 29.88 |
| KHWV BROOKHAVEN,NY | 13 sm | 37 min | calm | 10 sm | Overcast | 59°F | 55°F | 88% | 29.89 | |
| KBDR IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL,CT | 14 sm | 41 min | ENE 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 57°F | 57°F | 100% | 29.90 |
| KHVN TWEEDNEW HAVEN,CT | 21 sm | 40 min | E 03 | 6 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 63°F | 59°F | 88% | 29.90 |
| KFOK FRANCIS S GABRESKI,NY | 23 sm | 40 min | ESE 04 | 7 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 59°F | 57°F | 94% | 29.91 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Cedar Beach, Long Island, New York, Tide feet
Stony Brook
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:07 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 05:34 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 05:47 AM EDT 5.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 12:14 PM EDT 1.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:24 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:23 PM EDT 5.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:07 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 05:34 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 05:47 AM EDT 5.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 12:14 PM EDT 1.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:24 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:23 PM EDT 5.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1.8 |
| 2 am |
| 2.7 |
| 3 am |
| 3.8 |
| 4 am |
| 4.8 |
| 5 am |
| 5.5 |
| 6 am |
| 5.7 |
| 7 am |
| 5.3 |
| 8 am |
| 4.5 |
| 9 am |
| 3.5 |
| 10 am |
| 2.4 |
| 11 am |
| 1.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 2 |
| 3 pm |
| 3 |
| 4 pm |
| 4.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 5.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 5.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 5.6 |
| 8 pm |
| 5 |
| 9 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.2 |
Upton, NY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE