Sunrise 5:11 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 2:10 PM   Moonset 1:27 AM

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ANZ237 Block Island Sound- 705 Am Edt Sat Jun 15 2024
Today - N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds and N 1 foot at 2 seconds. Tonight - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 9 seconds and ne 1 foot at 3 seconds. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 9 seconds and ne 1 foot at 3 seconds. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds and se 1 foot at 13 seconds. Mon and Mon night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 3 seconds and se 2 ft at 7 seconds. Tue through Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 5 seconds and se 2 ft at 12 seconds.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 705 Am Edt Sat Jun 15 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - Cold front moves across the waters overnight. High pressure builds over new england Saturday and Sunday, and then moves offshore Monday. Conditions could approach small craft criteria today.

FXUS61 KBOX 151050 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 650 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will bring dry and pleasant Father's Day weekend. Dangerous heat and humidity begin to arrive on Tuesday and peak in the Wednesday through Friday time frame. Near record high temperatures are possible with afternoon Heat Indices between 95 and 105 degrees.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

645 AM Update...

* Plenty of sunshine today with highs well up into the upper 70s to the lower 80s along with lowering humidity

Leftover clouds now confined to eastern MA and expect those to dissipate through the morning as a very dry airmass fills in behind. Winds turn northerly today with highs mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s along with plenty of sunshine. Humidity will also be noticeably lower with dewpoints dropping into the 40s and 50s. Northerly winds and cold air advection will promote mixing which will allow for gusts of 15 to 20 mph today until sunset.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/

Tonight

Upper level ridge axis and surface high pressure move in overhead.
With clear skies, decreasing winds, and dewpoints in the 40s, strong radiational cooling will take place. Overnight lows will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s region wide. NW MA will likely be the coldest with lows in the low 40s.

Tomorrow

High pressure and dry airmass remain over the region. A passing weak 500mb shortwave will bring some high clouds and filtered sunshine to the region. All in all, Sunday will be another gorgeous day with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and dewpoints still in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds will also be also be light as they turn from northerly to southerly late in the day.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Key Points...

* Dangerous Heat & Humidity Tue through Fri * Near Record highs with Heat Indices 95-105 degrees * Mainly dry weather next week outside widely scattered t-storm risk

Details...

The main story continues to be the expected dangerous heat and humidity in store for much of the region next week. Ensembles continue to be in excellent agreement in an anomalous upper level ridge building across New England. Guidance shows 500 mb height fields approaching 600 dm in our region...which is rarely seen in our part of the country and a strong signal for the potential of record heat. This is also supported by the NAEFS & EPS Situational Awareness tables...which indicates several parameters outside the models climatology. That is a strong indication for the potential of a rare/highly unusual weather event...in this case being heat and humidity.

The dangerous heat and humidity arrive Tue across the interior, but appears localized sea breezes/onshore flow may limit the initial risk on the immediate coast. The heat & humidity should peak in the Wed through Fri time frame with the only possible relief along the immediate coast during times of localized sea breezes. Otherwise, ensemble guidance data supports near record highs well into the 90s...perhaps touching 100 degrees in spots. If that were to occur...we would challenge all time record highs for the month of June in spots. Either way though the main story will be several days of dangerous heat & humidity. Afternoon Heat Indices will reach into the 95 to 105 degree range. There will not be much relief at night with heat indices remaining in the 70s.

Upper level ridging will keep the vast majority of the upcoming work week dry
That being said
near record high temperatures with modest instability will result in a widely scattered t-storm threat.
This risk may increase towards the end of the work week as a cold front approaches the region.

So in a nutshell...dangerous heat and humidity is the concern for much of next week perhaps even challenging all time June high temperature records in spots!

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update...

Today...High Confidence.

VFR outside of a period of MVFR conditions on the Cape/Islands this morning. N winds 10 to 15 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots this morning.

Tonight...High Confidence.

VFR. Light N winds.

Tomorrow:

VFR. Winds turn light southerly with localized sea breezes possible.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: VFR.

Juneteenth: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today:

Winds turn north and gust 15 to 20mph. Seas 2-4 feet.

Tonight:

Clear conditions and generally light winds. Seas around 2-4 feet.

Tomorrow:

Clear conditions and light winds. Seas around 2-4 feet.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday through Juneteenth: Winds less than 25 kt.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Temperatures...

Tuesday, June 18th

BOS - 94F (1929)
BDL - 95F (1994)
PVD - 94F (1929)
ORH - 93F (1929)

Wednesday, June 19th

BOS - 96F (1923)
BDL - 95F (1995)
PVD - 94F (1923)
ORH - 93F (1923)

Thursday, June 20th

BOS - 98F (1953)
BDL - 97F (2012)
PVD - 95F (1941)
ORH - 93F (1953)

Last Day of 100F (or greater)

BOS - 100F (07/24/2022)
BDL - 100F (07/21/2019)
PVD - 100F (07/28/2020)
ORH - 102F (07/04/1911)

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

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Westerly
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Sat -- 01:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:41 AM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:31 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:18 PM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Westerly, Pawcatuck River, Rhode Island, Tide feet

The Race
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Sat -- 01:07 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:46 AM EDT     1.73 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:04 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:02 AM EDT     -2.13 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:15 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:07 PM EDT     2.05 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:36 PM EDT     -2.38 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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