Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 9:04 PM Moonrise 2:51 PM   Moonset 1:07 AM

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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 148 Pm Pdt Sat Jun 15 2024
In the main channel -
General seas - 5 to 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft Sunday noon.
First ebb - Ebb current of 2.68 kt at 1216 pm Saturday. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 3.85 kt at 109 am Sunday. Seas 5 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 2.45 kt at 116 pm Sunday. Seas 4 ft.

PZZ200 148 Pm Pdt Sat Jun 15 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - Front has moved through the area, maintaining post-frontal showers and onshore flow. Seas will stay 5-6 ft through the weekend. The next impactful system looks to be expected towards the latter part of next week which could result in marginal small craft winds.

FXUS66 KPQR 160343 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 843 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024

EVENING UPDATE
Showers have begun to decrease this evening with satellite and radar indicating the bulk of the lingering activity pinned to the coast, coast range, Willapa hills, SW Washington north of Ridgefield/Woodland, and over the Cascades.
As far as T-storms are concerned it has been a couple hours since lightning has been detected over western OR/SW Washington and with the loss of daytime heating chances for additional activity appears very low(less than 5-10%) going through the overnight hours, although Sunday afternoon likely presents another opportunity for a rumble of thunder or two. Otherwise, the best relative chances for lingering showers overnight will be stay along, the north Oregon and Washington Cascades/foothills, coast, coast range, and Willapa hills. It’s worth noting most guidance, especially CAMS like the HRRR, show an extended period of clearing over Willamette Valley into the Portland Metro area overnight, especially along the lee side of the coast range.
With these clearer skies, light winds, and ample surface moisture in mind, patchy fog likely develops overnight and may locally reduce visibility – the areal extent of patchy fog was slightly expanded to match the latest guidance and current satellite trends. The previous discussion remains below.
-Schuldt

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure brings cool and showery weather with a chance of thunderstorms today and Sunday. The best chances will be in the afternoon across northern portions of the forecast area. Cool and showery conditions last into Monday, then warmer and drier weather returns Tuesday through the end of next week.

SHORT TERM
Saturday Afternoon through Monday Night...Broad upper level troughing with a low centered over Vancouver Island, BC remains over the region. The shortwave along the main upper trough and associated weak cold front have moved east of the Cascades, and the atmosphere has become unstable behind the frontal passage. Scattered showers will continue through the entire forecast area through tonight, though best chances of thunderstorms are generally along and north of the Columbia River with models indicating CAPE of 300-600 J/kg. However, can't rule out a couple thunderstorms south of this area as models indicate lower CAPE values of 100-300 J/kg, enough for a lightning strike or two. Thunderstorm chances will diminish this evening as surface heating decreases. The main impacts expected with any strong shower or thunderstorm are brief heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and small hail. The cooler air brought in behind the cold front along with continued cloud cover will keep high temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s for the lowlands with morning lows in the 40s.

The cool and showery weather will persist over the region on Sunday as upper level troughing remains in place, with highs across the area similar to today. Shower activity will increase again in the afternoon as the main upper low shifts southeast across Washington and Oregon, bringing a renewed chance of thunderstorms across the north through early evening. The area will begin to dry out but remain cool on Monday as northwest flow takes hold behind the trough departing into the Rockies, with light shower activity mostly confined to the higher terrain and winding down through Monday night. -CB/HEC

LONG TERM
Tuesday through Friday...Warmer weather looks to return Tuesday through the end of next week as WPC ensemble clusters agree on the weakening of the trough over the western CONUS and subsequent increasing 500 mb heights across the Pacific Northwest. Guidance suggests temperatures will rebound back above normal into the upper 70s to low 80s by Tuesday for the interior lowlands as this occurs. Wednesday and Thursday then appear to be the hottest days of the coming week as the GFS and Euro ensembles as well as most deterministic solutions depict a weak Rex Block developing with a low amplitude ridge over western Canada with an open trough over northern California. This results in rather high confidence in NBM temperature spreads showing highs in the mid to upper 80s for areas away from the coast both Wednesday and Thursday (70-90% chance of temperatures above 80 degrees), with around a 25-35% chance to reach 90 degrees from Portland to Salem and closer to a 10% chance around Eugene. -CB/HEC

AVIATION
Currently VFR across the majority of the airspace with post-frontal showers continuing to diminish over the next few hours. CIGs look to be above FL040 through the majority of the TAF period. However, could see some patchy MVFR conditions (30-40% probability) to develop after 12Z Sunday.

Southwest/westerly winds around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt through 03Z Sunday. Afterwards, winds will become light and variable and if clouds clear, there is the potential for patchy IFR fog to develop (25% probability) starting around 12Z Sunday.
Any fog that does develop should dissipate by 15Z Sunday as VFR/MVFR conditions along with showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms (25% probability) return. Any thunderstorms will have the potential to produce small hail along with gusty and erratic winds.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Post-frontal showers continuing to linger over the next few hours. This will result in predominantly VFR conditions through the TAF period. Westerly winds of 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt will decrease to light winds around 03Z Sunday.
Around 15Z Sunday VFR/MVFR conditions along with showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms (25% probability) return. /42

MARINE
Fairly innocuous conditions for the near future. Seas remain around 5 to 7 ft at 9 to 11 seconds. Post-frontal weather currently bringing slightly stronger west winds with gusts up to 20 kt late Saturday afternoon and decreasing into Saturday night. Late Sunday/early Monday strong northwesterly winds will return and may bring marginal Small Craft Winds to all waters. There is still some uncertainty in the strength of the Monday system. -JH

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.

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Vancouver
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Sun -- 02:06 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:12 AM PDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:20 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:39 AM PDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:40 PM PDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:49 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:46 PM PDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:37 PM PDT     0.87 feet High Tide
Sun -- 09:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:38 PM PDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy), Tide feet

Knappa
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:09 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:20 AM PDT     1.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:22 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:45 AM PDT     5.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:54 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:47 PM PDT     2.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:08 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:41 PM PDT     7.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon, Tide feet

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