Sunrise 5:15 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 2:12 PM   Moonset 1:29 AM

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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 243 Pm Edt Sat Jun 15 2024
Rest of today - NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tonight - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Sun night - S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 243 Pm Edt Sat Jun 15 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weak surface trough over the area this afternoon will dissipate tonight as high pressure builds from the northwest. The high will move across Sunday morning and then become stationary just offshore through late week.

FXUS61 KOKX 151835 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 235 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak surface trough over the area this afternoon will dissipate tonight as high pressure builds from the northwest.
The high will move across Sunday morning and then become stationary just offshore through late week. A few weak disturbances may approach from the north next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As an upper level trough to the east pulls away, a weak mid level shortwave trough and weak sfc reflection is helping produce sfc-bkn Cu across the NYC metro area and most of NJ.
These clouds will dissipate later today into early this evening, with a mostly clear night. This plus some CAA as high pressure builds in from the NW plus diminishing winds will lead to good radiational cooling and mostly below normal low temps, ranging from the upper 40s in the interior valleys/Long Island Pine Barrens, to the 50s most elsewhere, to the lower 60s invof NYC.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Heights will continue to rise aloft. High pressure at the surface will move overhead by late Sunday morning, and then pass offshore during Sunday afternoon and evening, where it should become nearly stationary and remain in control through the week.

The short term period will be dry and mostly sunny. Some energy rounding the upper level ridge will pass overhead Sunday afternoon/evening, but will likely just result in some high clouds.

Temperatures Sunday will be just a few degrees cooler than Saturday, with highs in the 70s and dewpoints in the 40s. As the high shifts offshore later on Sunday a return flow sets up and moisture increases. Dewpoints quickly return to the upper 50s inland and lower/mid 60s closer to the coast on Monday, with high temps in the mid/upper 80s from NYC west, 80-85 for NYC and most of southern CT, and 75-80 for most of Long Island and SE CT. This should be the last day before a heat wave sets up for the rest of the week.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
**Key Points**

* A long duration heat wave is expected during most of next week beginning on Tuesday and lasting until Friday or Saturday.

* Heat index values of greater than 95 degrees are expected for much of the area during this time.

A strengthening deep layer ridge will be positioned over the East Coast by Tuesday with a surface high pressure system over the Western Atlantic. Low level flow on the west side of the high pressure will allow for a southerly or southwesterly flow through much of the extended period. This will allow for the advection of both low level moisture and warm air.

The upper level ridge continues strengthening in intensity through the middle and end of the week, eventually peaking in strength by Thursday with 500mb heights between 594 and 600dam.
This highly anomalous strength in the upper level ridge will allow for a prolonged heat event to take place over the entire Northeast. By Tuesday, surface highs will be in the 90s for much of the interior portions of the area with coastal locations in the middle to upper 80s.

Heat persists through the week, eventually allowing temperatures to rise into the middle to upper 90s for interior portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and southern CT. It would not be that surprising if some locations hit 100 degrees, especially into Thursday and Friday. Because this is a fairly early season heat wave, relatively cooler waters only in the 60s will shelter Long Island and immediate coastal Connecticut from experiencing the worst of the heat, but may result in some enhanced surface moisture over these areas. Heat index values will likely be greater than 95 degrees during each afternoon from Tuesday through at least Friday for everywhere except Long Island. This may eventually facilitate heat headlines.

Given the duration and intensity of the anticipated heat, it is important to take precautions to protect one's health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Some heat- sensitive industries and infrastructure will likely be impacted by the extent of this heat as well.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure builds over the area from the north into Sunday.

VFR.

N winds 10-15kt with gusts near 20kt for the next hour or two.
Light northerly winds tonight before gradually shifting NE-E, then southeast on Sunday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be only occasional. End time of frequent gusts may be off by an hour, and would more likely end before what are indicated in TAFs.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday through Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
With high pressure remaining in control, sub SCA conditions are expected on all waters thru early next week.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the end of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Latest beach reports indicated no more than a moderate rip current risk today. The moderate risk should continue on Sunday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Hashamomuck Beach
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Sat -- 12:29 AM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:44 AM EDT     3.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:41 PM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:11 PM EDT     4.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hashamomuck Beach, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

Shinnecock Canal
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Sat -- 01:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:31 AM EDT     0.93 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:34 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:02 AM EDT     -1.23 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:35 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:04 PM EDT     1.11 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:21 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:37 PM EDT     -1.18 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current, knots

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