Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 1:49 PM   Moonset 1:14 AM

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GMZ830 Tampa Bay Waters- 855 Pm Edt Sat Jun 15 2024
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Bay and inland waters light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms, mainly this evening. Sunday - East winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered Thunderstorms. Numerous showers, mainly in the evening. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Tuesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Wednesday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered Thunderstorms. Scattered showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 855 Pm Edt Sat Jun 15 2024
Synopsis - Winds will shift to easterly Sunday and increase during next week as high pressure builds south setting up a rather tight pressure gradient across the waters. Winds will increase to exercise caution to advisory levels at times by late Monday and remain there through the rest of the week. Main hazard throughout the forecast period will be isolated to scattered Thunderstorms which may cause locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FXUS62 KTBW 160015 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 815 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 815 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will wind down over the next few hours, but an isolated shower or storm could still move onshore late tonight along northern parts of the Nature Coast.
Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected overnight.
Overall forecast looks ok at this time with no changes needed.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 815 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Convection will end in the next few hours with mainly VFR conditions expected through Sunday morning before more scattered showers and thunderstorms develop Sunday afternoon. Winds will become light east to southeast tonight into early Sunday morning then increase to 7 to 10 knots by late morning.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 415 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Weak high pressure will remain across the region into early Sunday then a stronger high will build southwest across the Florida peninsula setting up a tight pressure gradient with breezy easterly flow becoming established for much of the upcoming week.

Sunday will be the transition day as the stronger high begins to build in with southeast to south flow persisting along with plenty of moisture. With this flow we could see an isolated shower or storm move onshore along the northern Nature Coast late tonight/Sunday morning, otherwise expect scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to develop across the region.

During Monday and continuing through midweek a breezy easterly flow will become established with some pockets of drier air moving through from time to time. However, the exact location and timing of these drier air pockets is difficult to determine. Not matter what though it looks like rain chances will be a little lower for the first half of the week, but still in the scattered, 30 to 50 percent, range.

Late in the week the global models are depicting a tropical wave/low moving quickly west from the Atlantic Ocean across some part of the Florida peninsula/southeast states. Similar to the timing and location of the drier air early in the week, the specifics of this system are unknown at this time, but either way we should have plenty of moisture to still see scattered to numerous convection each day.

MARINE
Issued at 415 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Winds will shift to easterly Sunday and increase during next week as high pressure builds south setting up a rather tight pressure gradient across the waters. Winds will increase to exercise caution to advisory levels at times by late Monday and remain there through the rest of the week. Main hazard throughout the forecast period will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms which may cause locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 415 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Pretty typical summertime weather will persist with warm and humid conditions each day leading to scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. High pressure will build in from the northeast early next week setting up a rather tight pressure leading to an increased easterly flow with the afternoon sea breeze not developing or at best being pinned along the coast. The breezy conditions will lead to high dispersion values for much of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 92 77 93 / 30 70 30 40 FMY 76 92 76 92 / 20 60 20 50 GIF 75 94 75 92 / 30 60 10 30 SRQ 76 92 75 94 / 30 60 30 40 BKV 72 94 72 94 / 30 70 20 30 SPG 81 92 80 94 / 30 60 30 40

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

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Indian Rocks Beach (inside)
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Sat -- 01:36 AM EDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:26 AM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:11 PM EDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:10 PM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Indian Rocks Beach (inside), Florida, Tide feet

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa)
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Sat -- 01:37 AM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:03 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:07 AM EDT     0.80 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:38 PM EDT     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:14 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:57 PM EDT     0.61 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Old Tampa Bay Entrance (Port Tampa), Florida Current, knots

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