Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 8:45 PM Moonrise 1:38 AM   Moonset 2:12 PM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1020 Am Edt Sat Jun 1 2024
This afternoon - West winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - East winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - Northwest winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Light and variable winds. Mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 61 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 011423 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1023 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather will continue through tonight as high pressure across the region drifts to the east coast. Weakening low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley Sunday, bringing a chance of a showers and a few thunderstorms. Dry and warm weather will follow for early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
A mid level ridge will slowly crest over the region today as surface high pressure drifts to the east coast. This will maintain fair weather across the region, but there will be an increase in high clouds this afternoon. Following another cool start, sunshine and a slightly warmer air mass will allow afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 70s with a few spots reaching 80F in the Genesee Valley and Western Finger Lakes.

A weakening shortwave will lift out of the Ohio Valley and towards the forecast area tonight. While this will result in lots of cloud cover, the night will remain rain-free. With the clouds limiting radiational cooling it'll be warmer with lows ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s.

For Sunday, the weakening shortwave will track across the area, bringing at least a chance of showers to the area. Some model disagreement on how strong the shortwave will be, but most agree the best chances will be across Western New York, with lower changes east of Lake Ontario. Despite the chance for showers, Sunday will be far from a washout, with the vast majority of the time rain-free.
Limited afternoon instability may support a few isolated thunderstorms. Clouds will limit daytime warming some, with highs mainly in the 70s, except near 80 east of Lake Ontario which could benefit from some morning breaks of sunshine.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Behind a shortwave trough showers will be exiting east and southeastward from our region Sunday night. Some patchy fog possible with a low dewpoint depression and light winds.

Light flow over the region Monday with broad and very weak surface high pressure nearby. Monday should be dry, but a spot shower along any forming lake breeze boundary cannot be ruled out. It will be a bit warmer Monday with partly to mostly sunny skies aiding in afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows

Monday night will drop back into the mid 50s, to lower 60s...with a light southeasterly flow behind the departing weak surface high limiting fog potential.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A mid level ridge of high pressure will continue to nose its way across the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday and Wednesday.

While Tuesday will feature mainly dry weather, as humidity increases and an upstream shortwave trough nears the eastern Great Lakes, showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage area Wednesday.
There will be light southerly breezes Wednesday with a tightening pressure gradient.

This shortwave trough arrives Thursday with likely showers and thunderstorms. This will be the most favorable day for thunderstorms with a modest increase in instability. It is likely that this trough will close off from the main west to east flow, with a pocket of cold air over the Great Lakes promoting unsettled and cooler conditions for Friday and into the start of next weekend.

Temperatures will average above normal, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday with low to mid 80s widespread ahead of the next shortwave trough. Cooler Friday, with temperatures close to normal.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR will prevail through tonight. High pressure and a mid-level ridge will maintain rain-free weather through 12Z Sunday. High clouds will increase late this afternoon through tonight, but clouds will be well into the VFR flight category.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, particularly across Western NY.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers.

MARINE
Relatively quiet weather this weekend into early next week with no marine headlines expected. A weak low moves northeast from the Ohio Valley to just south of the lower Great Lakes late tonight through Sunday with a chance of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the region Sunday night through Monday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Binghamton, NY,