Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 1:23 PM   Moonset 12:43 AM

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AMZ231 Croatan And Roanoke Sounds- 124 Pm Edt Sat Jun 15 2024
This afternoon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Tonight - NE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.

AMZ200 104 Pm Edt Sat Jun 15 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A weak cold front will push through from the north late tonight. High pressure will build in from the north much of next week.

FXUS62 KMHX 151803 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 203 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Back door cold front interacts with sea breeze to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along the Crystal Coast. High pressure dominates the rest of the weekend into next week resulting in dry conditions and above average temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 130 PM Saturday...Multiple boundaries at play this afternoon. A weak cold front has moved offshore of the Crystal Coast, a sea breeze is currently pinned to the coast, and a NW- SE oriented back door cold front has crossed the Pamlico Sound.

Daytime heating has built up CAPEs to 1.5kJ/kg along the Crystal Coast this afternoon, with areas further north and west struggling to destabilize due to upper level subsidence in the wake of the cold front. Soundings and mesoanalysis also show maxima of PWATs of 1.5" along the Crystal coast largely focused in the lower levels. This gives us a convergence of forcing, instability, and moisture along the Crystal coast, where there will be a focus for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and early evening. Shear is relatively weak, with 0-6km shear values at 20 kt, but impressive DCAPEs of over 1k J/kg indicated short lived showers and thunderstorms that collapse as quickly as they initiate. One or two strong storms are possible, though with main forcing surface based and not much upper support, no severe storms are expected. PoPs are highest along the Crystal Coast and coastal Onslow, in the 30-40% range, and taper back quickly north of this region, to dry for the northern 2/3 of the CWA

It is quite hot today, with NW'rly to N'rly flow keeping temps in the 90s all the way to the Crystal Coast. The OBX will be refreshed by N to NE flow off the cooler waters, and highs only in the low-mid 80s here, particularly for NOBX where highs struggle to get above 80.

Some lingering showers possible early this evening, esp Duplin and Onslow Counties, before drying occurs with deep N'rly flow overtaking ENC. This will bring drier air to the region, and pleasant overnight temps are expected with clear skies and light winds allowing for lows to drop back to the 60-65 range inland, to upper 60s to near 70 for beaches.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
As of 130 PM Saturday...Extended period of strong ridging begins Sunday, keeping us dry, warm, and clear. Highs near 90 inland, low-mid 80s for beaches, but Tds in the 50s and low 60s will result in more pleasant apparent temperatures. Easterly flow as the high builds to our north will help push the sea breeze further inland in the afternoon and evening, but a dry atmospheric column will inhibit any shower formation along the sea breeze.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 3 AM Saturday...

Key Points: - Extended period of warm, dry weather through next week

Sunday night - Tuesday...Strong ridging will build over the eastern US through mid-week, which will bring several days of warm, dry weather for ENC. Although temps will still be plenty warm each day (low 90s coastal plain, mid 80s OBX), onshore easterly flow will work in our favor to keep us from even hotter temps.

Wednesday - Friday...There are still notable differences in the long range models, but the consensus is that an upper level low will develop east of the Bahamas and move west towards the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, surface troughing will develop across ENC on Wednesday and stick around through the end of the work week. PoPs remain below mentionable until Thursday, however, given the lack of moisture in the column. Confidence in precipitation for coastal communities is not high enough to go greater than slight chance at this time.

This extended period of warm, dry weather will also present increased fire weather concerns through the week with afternoon minimum RHs dipping to the mid 30s.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through today/...
As of 1 PM Sat...VFR everywhere except for NOBX and the region between the Albemarle Sound and Pamlico River as a layer of MVFR stratocu is moving along behind a back door cold front.
Expectation is for NOBX to remain MVFR through the afternoon before conditions clear up in the evening. For mainland ENC, as daytime heating increases the stratocu will likely rise to above MVFR levels before reaching any TAF terminals. However, added in a SCT030 deck to TAFs for the next couple hours just in case.
A few SHRA or stray storm may develop this afternoon along the seabreeze, best chance for OAJ between 18-00Z, but low coverage prevented me from going more aggressive than VCSH for the TAFs.
Clear skies and light to calm winds tonight as high pressure builds in. Areas north of the Pamlico River will have the longest period of calm winds, so if any fog does develop in swampy areas where moisture is available, it will likely be in this region. Probabilities are too low at this point for anything other than an honorable mention.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...VFR conditions expected through the period with high pressure remaining dominant through the period.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 2 PM Saturday...A period of 10-20kt northeasterly winds behind back door cold front today as it moves through this afternoon.
A few gusts to 25 kt possible with the N'rly surge this afternoon, though not long enough duration to warrant any SCA headlines. Seas build to 3-4 ft this afternoon with the N'rly winds, with some 5 ft sets possible outer central waters later afternoon into evening. Tonight winds decrease to 10-15kts, veering throughout the night and becoming ENE'rly for Sunday as the high pressure builds to our north.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...Sub-SCA, warm, and dry through the period.

Monday-Tuesday: E 5-10 kt, 2-4 ft Wednesday: E 10-15 kt, 2-3 ft (4-5 ft offshore)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Kitty Hawk (ocean)
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Sat -- 01:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:33 AM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:46 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:11 PM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:39 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
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Kitty Hawk (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet

Jennetts Pier (ocean)
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Sat -- 01:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:29 AM EDT     2.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:45 AM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:07 PM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:38 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Jennetts Pier (ocean), North Carolina, Tide feet

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