Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:23 PM Moonrise 2:33 PM   Moonset 1:29 AM

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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 1018 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 15 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds around 15 knots diminishing to near 10 knots toward morning. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.Sunday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, rising to 10 to 15 knots late. Bay waters smooth, rising to slightly choppy late. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers after midnight. A chance of Thunderstorms late. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Tuesday - East winds around 20 knots, rising to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy, rising to rough in the afternoon. Showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Tuesday night - East winds 20 to 25 knots. Bay waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Wednesday - East winds 20 to 25 knots. Bay waters rough. Thunderstorms likely. Showers.Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Showers likely. Thunderstorms likely, mainly in the evening. Thursday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely. Thursday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1018 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 15 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the southwestern gulf of mexico in a day or two - .moving slowly westward or west-northwestward. In addition to periods of unsettled weather, look for increasing winds, seas, and water levels across the upper texas coastal waters as we head into the early and midweek time period. Small craft advisories are likely and some gale conditions cannot be ruled out in the gulf waters. Mariners should closely Monitor the forecasts.

FXUS64 KHGX 160444 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1144 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. There's a non-zero chance of an isolated late afternoon or early evening tstm or two that pops up Sunday...but chances are too low for any one individual location to mention in the TAFs at this time. Will probably see some sct shra activity along the coast toward heading ito early Mon morning, but with the exception of IAH this is beyond the 6z TAF period. 47

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The remainder of the weekend will continue to be characterized by warm, humid, but otherwise seasonable conditions before things become quite a bit more active next week (see Long Term section below). In general, the synoptic pattern has remained fairly steady with a surface high centered over the SE CONUS and broad low pressure located near the Yucatan Peninsula. This will continue to promote a light to moderate SE flow which will supply a steady stream of Gulf moisture to the area. Look for overnight lows tonight to sit a couple of degrees higher as a result of sustained WAA, with inland locations in the mid 70s and the immediate coast likely remaining around 80-82.

A mild tightening of the surface pressure gradient will increase onshore winds somewhat heading into Sunday, resulting in the approach of a plume of deeper Gulf moisture (PWs increase to ~1.75 in). This increase in moisture may be sufficient to support some isolated thunderstorm activity mainly driven by diurnal heating, but overall rainfall coverage will not become particularly widespread prior to the arrival of more conducive upper level support heading into the early part of next week. High temperatures once again will approach the mid 90s, with overnight lows a touch higher as greater moisture leads to an increase in overnight cloud coverage.

Cady

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

On Monday, a surface low is progged to spin up over the Rockies, deepening later in the week as an upper trough digs in over the Northwestern CONUS. With surface high pressure spanning the eastern sea board, this should tighten the pressure gradient, increasing onshore flow over the region. Combined with an upper level trough overhead, this will funnel humid Gulf air into SE Texas, creating a corridor of deep moisture (+2" PWs) and numerous shortwave impulses passing aloft. The end result will be wetter conditions with rounds of showers/thunderstorms possible throughout the upcoming week. The upper level trough axis appears to be slightly further west in comparison to yesturday's model runs. Consequently, this seems shift the "train" of shortwave impulses further into SE Texas, steering heavier storms/rainfall into our area. Global models now suggest that a coastal trough will develop off the Deep S Texas Coastline on Tuesday. This disturbance looks to track northward overnight, moving over SE Texas on Wednesday. A 30-40 knot LLJ looks to accompany this trough, bringing strong winds along the coast and likely further amplifying rainfall totals. Forecast soundings through mid week still show ample instability and saturated conditions indicative of high precipitation efficiency. Cloud layer winds and Corfidi upshear winds skew lower (more-so early in the week) suggest slower moving storms will could further amplify the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

With all those factors in consideration, WPC has a Slight (level 2/4) Risk of excessive rainfall across portions of SE Texas for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Any storms that develop during this period may be slower-moving in nature, capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. This heavy rainfall threat looks to be greatest closer to the coastline. For next week, rainfall totals in areas south of US-59 are expected to range from 4-8 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. Areas to the north will generally receive 2- 4 inches during this same period. This rainfall will likely result in rises in rivers, streams and creeks. The heavy rainfall threat currently looks to be greatest on late Thursday into Wednesday, especially so if soils become saturated from prior rainfall and thus more prone to runoff. Wet conditions look to continue through the end of the week as a broad upper level low traverses through the Gulf of Mexico.

Another component of uncertainty to this forecast will be an area of low pressure, which is currently anticipated to develop over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche during the first half of the week. Currently this system is expected to track west/northwesterly into Mexico late in the week. The fully impacts of this potential tropical system remain relatively uncertain at this time, in part due to uncertainties in the forecast track and it's northern extent. The heavy rainfall threat to SE Texas may shift drastically depending on how this system evolves. Stay tuned over the next several days as we monitor this possible system.

On a more minor note, a weak plume of Saharan Dust may pass overhead early next week. NASA's GMAO shows low optical thickness with this plume of dust, so the impacts from this dust will likely be minimal.
This dust may create some hazy-white skies on Monday and Tuesday, assuming there are some breaks in the cloud cover to see it in the first place.

03

MARINE
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Winds and seas will increase over the next several days as the pressure gradient tightens while a long fetch sets up over the Gulf of Mexico. Ample Gulf moisture will bring numerous showers/storms daily, beginning on Sunday. Small Craft advisories will be needed early next week as a coastal trough sets up near the Texas coastal, bringing strong winds of 20 to 30 knots with gusts in excess of Gale- Force possible. Seas are expected to reach 7 to 11 feet at times.
These strong onshore winds over a long fetch will also bring a high risk of rip currents and potentially some coastal flooding across the Texas coastline as early as Tuesday.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche by mid week. While this system is currently expected to track west to northwesterly into Mexico later in the week, there is much uncertainty. Forecasted winds and seas may vary drastically depending on how this system evolves. Stay tuned over the next several days as we monitor this possible system.

03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 74 94 75 92 / 0 10 0 30 Houston (IAH) 76 93 77 89 / 0 20 20 70 Galveston (GLS) 83 89 81 87 / 0 20 50 80

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Clear Lake
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Sun -- 01:42 AM CDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:29 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:18 AM CDT     0.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:57 PM CDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:33 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:59 PM CDT     0.55 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas, Tide feet

Bolivar Roads
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Sun -- 02:28 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:55 AM CDT     1.32 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:43 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:12 AM CDT     -0.12 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:27 PM CDT     -0.01 knots Min Ebb
Sun -- 03:32 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:22 PM CDT     -1.92 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:35 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots

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