Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 1:25 PM   Moonset 12:44 AM

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AMZ230 Albemarle Sound- 635 Pm Edt Sat Jun 15 2024
Tonight - NE winds around 15 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sun - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Sun night - E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Mon night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

AMZ200 718 Pm Edt Sat Jun 15 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - A weak cold front will stall over the southern grand strand region tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north much of next week.

FXUS62 KMHX 152232 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 632 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
Back door cold front will continue to push offshore tonight.
High pressure dominates the rest of the weekend into next week resulting in dry conditions and above average temperatures.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 630 PM Sat...Backdoor cold front will continue to push off the coast tonight. Daytime heating has built up CAPEs to 1-1.5kJ/kg along the southern coast, with areas further north and west struggling to destabilize due to upper level subsidence and NE flow in the wake of the cold front. Soundings and mesoanalysis also show PWATs of 1.5" along the Crystal coast largely focused in the lower levels. This gives us a convergence of forcing, instability, and moisture along the Crystal coast, where there will be a focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms through early evening. One shower currently over Stella and Swansboro. Shear is relatively weak, with 0-6km shear values at 20 kt, but impressive DCAPEs of over 1k J/kg indicated short lived showers and thunderstorms that collapse as quickly as they initiate. One or two strong storms are possible, though with main forcing surface based and not much upper support, no severe storms are expected.

Drier air will grad filter in overnight and expect pleasant temps with clearing skies and light winds, allowing lows to drop back to the 60-65 range inland, to upper 60s to near 70 for beaches.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
As of 130 PM Saturday...Extended period of strong ridging begins Sunday, keeping us dry, warm, and clear. Highs near 90 inland, low-mid 80s for beaches, but Tds in the 50s and low 60s will result in more pleasant apparent temperatures. Easterly flow as the high builds to our north will help push the sea breeze further inland in the afternoon and evening, but a dry atmospheric column will inhibit any shower formation along the sea breeze.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 3 AM Saturday...

Key Points: - Extended period of warm, dry weather through next week

Sunday night - Tuesday...Strong ridging will build over the eastern US through mid-week, which will bring several days of warm, dry weather for ENC. Although temps will still be plenty warm each day (low 90s coastal plain, mid 80s OBX), onshore easterly flow will work in our favor to keep us from even hotter temps.

Wednesday - Friday...There are still notable differences in the long range models, but the consensus is that an upper level low will develop east of the Bahamas and move west towards the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, surface troughing will develop across ENC on Wednesday and stick around through the end of the work week. PoPs remain below mentionable until Thursday, however, given the lack of moisture in the column. Confidence in precipitation for coastal communities is not high enough to go greater than slight chance at this time.

This extended period of warm, dry weather will also present increased fire weather concerns through the week with afternoon minimum RHs dipping to the mid 30s.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 630 PM Sat...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Few to sct scu will dissipate with loss of heating this evening, giving way to mostly clear to few high clouds overnight into Sunday. An isolated shower possible through 00z, mainly at EWN or OAJ. Mostly clear skies and light to calm winds tonight as high pressure builds in. Widespread fog formation does not appear likely with drier air filtering in, but very patchy fog will be possible with possibly best chances at PGV.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...VFR conditions expected through the period with high pressure remaining dominant through the period.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 630 PM Saturday...Latest obs show NE-E winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4 ft. Backdoor front will continue to push offshore tonight with NE-E surge grad diminishing to 10-15kt. A few gusts to 25 kt possible with the N'rly the next few hours, though not long enough duration to warrant any SCA headlines.
Seas build to 3-4 ft this afternoon with the N'rly winds, with some 5 ft sets possible outer central waters later afternoon into evening. Tonight winds decrease to 10-15kts, veering throughout the night and becoming ENE'rly for Sunday as the high pressure builds to our north.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 630 PM Saturday...Sub-SCA through the period with high pressure in control. Monday-Tuesday: E 5-10 kt and seas 2-4 ft.
Wednesday: E 10-15 kt and seas 2-3 ft (4-5 ft offshore).

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Duck Pier
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Sat -- 01:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:28 AM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:55 AM EDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:28 PM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:45 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina, Tide feet

Duck Pier
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:37 AM EDT     2.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:46 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:15 PM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:39 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina (2), Tide feet

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