Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carson, WA
June 1, 2024 3:50 PM PDT (22:50 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:21 AM Sunset 8:53 PM Moonrise 1:40 AM Moonset 2:22 PM |
FXUS66 KPQR 012143 AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 230 PM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024
SYNOPSIS
Increasing clouds and little light rain around this evening. But, rain will be increasing later tonight into Sunday morning as rather strong weather system arrives. Rain, will be heavy at times Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Front will push inland early Monday, with some showers around for the rest of the day through Tuesday. Then, high pressure builds over the western USA, with a return of more typical late June warmth.
SHORT TERM
(Sat night through Mon)
KEY NOTES: 1) Rain, heavy at times, for Sunday and Sunday night
2) Local ponding of water expected in low-lying areas Sunday through Sunday night, but river flooding is NOT expected.
3) Showers for Monday and Tuesday
4) Warmer for Thu into the weekend, with inland highs in 80s
Mild afternoon around the region, under quite a bit of mid and high clouds. Temperatures mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast, with upper 60s to lower 70s across the interior. Have had few sprinkles around the area, and that will continue into this evening.
No big changes to the current forecasts, as everything seems be on track. Will leave previous discussion intact, as most seems appropriate to repeat:
Weather for Sunday will be anything but normal as a potent late-season low pressure system couples with a moderate to strong atmospheric river to bring a very wet day to SW Washington and NW Oregon. Recent model trends of ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI)
continues to suggest a high-end event climatologically, with EFI values in excess of 0.9 for most of our Cascades and a Shift-of-Tails (SOT) in the 1 to 2 range. The SOT values in excess of 1 indicate the potential for rainfall to approach record levels for this time of year. In other words, Sunday's system will behave much more like one of our moisture-laden autumn frontal systems than the typical weaker systems we would come to expect in late spring. If anything, the 00z GEFS has more moisture involved with Sunday's system, with NAEFS means solidly in the +4 to +6 standardized anomaly range for moisture transport and a return interval (in late May/early June) on the order of 10-30 years All this points to a high-end rainfall event for early June, and one that will qualify as a significant rain event for any time of the year across our region.
Perhaps the most concerning aspect of this system is the combination of unusually deep moisture with an unusually strong early June system, along with strong orographic enhancement for the Coast Range and Cascades. Fortunately, most of our rivers are starting off low or near summertime base flows, which should mitigate most hydro concerns for this event. However, the potential for extreme rainfall rates is there, especially for the higher terrain where HRRR 90th percentile rain rates suggest there could be a solid 6-12 hour period with rainfall rates exceeding 0.25-0.40"/hr. This could be enough to cause some minor debris flows, especially in recently burned areas. Such rainfall rates could also cause some of our flashier creeks and rivers to jump their banks - the Grays River in particular comes to mind, but much will depend on the alignment of the atmospheric river during the peak of our event. Will have to monitor this, and see where rainfall starts setting up on Sunday.
Overall, based on NBM deterministic guidance, inland valleys can expect 1-2 inches of rain from this event through Monday night, though downsloping may hold Hood River short of 1 inch. The coast can expect to see 1.50-3.00 inches, with 2-4 inches likely for the Coast Range and Cascades. Looking at 75th percentile NBM guidance, there is the possibility for some Coast Range/Cascade locations to exceed 4 inches. This potential rings especially true after looking at the 00z HRRR mean QPF, which only runs through 5 PM Sunday but already shows multiple areas in the Coast Range/Cascades exceeding 2 inches by then... with 6-12 hours still to go before the steady, locally heavy rain comes to an end. WPC suggested a marginal risk of issues due to excessive rainfall in their Day 3 outlook for 12z Sun to 12z Mon - which certainly seems warranted considering all these factors.
Latest deterministic guidance brings an end to the steadier rain Monday morning as a fast-moving cold front sweeps across the Pac NW.
Cool air aloft behind this system will result in plenty of showers Monday and, depending on how many sunbreaks there are, potentially even a couple thunderstorms. Sunday through Monday will see occasionally blustery S-SW winds as mixing increases and 850 mb winds occasionally push into the 40-50 kt range, though the strongest winds appear to be focusing on Sunday night based on the latest guidance.
Given the potential for mixing down of the stronger winds aloft is higher than it usually is during our winter events due to the stronger sun this time of year, just about anywhere in our CWA could see 30-40 mph gusts at times Sunday through Monday. Exposed, higher elevations in the Cascades could easily see periods with W-SW wind gusts exceeding 50 mph Sunday through Monday. All in all, the weather Sunday and Monday is likely to bring the all-too- familiar "June-uary" back into our lexicon here in the Pac NW. For those who are craving more typical summer weather, you won't have to wait long - see the long term discussion below for details on a potential heat wave by next weekend. /Weagle
LONG TERM
Tuesday through Friday...Subtropical moisture remains entrained in the broader baroclinic zone stalled across the NE Pacific and Pac NW Monday night. Meanwhile, most deterministic guidance continues to depict a fast-moving shortwave being pushed toward the Pac NW on the unseasonably strong jet stream. Some models guide this system closer to the Canadian border, while others such as the 06z NAM hint at a track far enough south to bring another round of significant rainfall to at least our northern zones. Given the moisture rich environment and the recent rainfall from Sunday, this system will need to be watched closely as another shot of heavy rain Tuesday could push some drainages out of their banks. NBM median QPF for Tuesday's system is less than 1 inch throughout the CWA, but looking upwards to the NBM 90th percentile QPF, one can see that there is some potential for higher 1-3 inch amounts for the Coast Range and Cascades north of about a Tillamook-Detroit line.
Conversely, NBM 10th percentile QPF shows less than 0.25" anywhere in our CWA, so considerable variability remains.
Starting midweek, models are suggesting a high likelihood of a strong upper level ridge of high pressure developing somewhere over the Western United States. Looking at the 00z WPC cluster analyses, all clusters are now indicating positive 500 mb height anomalies over WA/OR (i.e. above-normal temperatures in most cases) by Thursday.
Therefore confidence in above-normal temperatures by the end of the week is very high - the challenge is in determining just how much above normal temps will be.
Most 00z WPC clusters suggest the upper ridge axis will be far enough inland to maintain at least some vestige of onshore flow in the low-levels, so this does not appear to be the type of warm spell that reaches the coast. The WPC cluster most favored by ensemble members is also the hottest one, with the most significant 500 mb height anomalies. However this solution is still only shown by 40-50% of members - mostly from the EC ensemble suite - so things can still change. Unsurprisingly though, NBM probs of reaching 90 degrees for the inland valleys have increased a bit, reflecting the greater number of members showing the hot solution. As of the 07z run of the NBM, the probabilities of reaching 90 degrees in the interior lowlands were generally 30-60% for Friday and Saturday, but the probabilities of reaching 100 degrees remain below 15%. Pattern recognition-wise, this has the look of a prolonged but low-intensity heat event with multiple days in the upper 80s to mid 90s for the inland valleys. This type of heat event, while not necessarily record breaking, can still be problematic for those who are sensitive to heat. With all this in mind, those sensitive to heat should pay close attention to the forecast the next few days, and perhaps consider where they may go to stay cool late next week should the hotter forecast guidance prevail. Weagle
AVIATION
VFR conditions remain in place across the area ahead of an approaching storm system. Winds across the interior valley are light and variable and around 10 knots along the coast from the west/northwest.
A potent for June storm approaches overnight with rain bringing widespread MVFR to IFR conditions late tonight to the coast. Along with lower cigs, visibilities likely reduced due to the rain.
Inland areas likely to remain VFR but will see clouds filling in over the mountains. HRRR shows about a 20-40% chance for MVFR cigs over the valley after 08Z Sun but coverage is more sporadic until later in the afternoon when guidance suggests widespread MVFR CIGs .
Southwest winds will pick up SUnday morning to between 10-15 knots with gusts in the teens, possibly 20+ knots at KNOP and KAST along the coast.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected through the evening with passing sprinkles. A much stronger storm will bring widespread moderate to heavy rain overnight and through Sunday.
HRRR shows a about a 20% chance for cigs near 3000 feet after 8Z but is sporadic and not widespread. Light winds overnight will pick up from the southwest after dawn at around 10 knots and gusts up to 15 knots. -Batz
MARINE
A strong storm system will move into the northeast Pacific Sunday shifting winds southerly. Small Craft Wind gusts are likely with 90+% chance of gusts exceeding 21 kts. NBM probabilities for Gale Force winds remain around 10-30% but the deterministic and HRRR guidance have trended stronger with a 60-90+% chance for gale force gusts, mainly 15-21Z on Sunday.
Given the upward trend in guidance and better potential for a brief coastal jet, have upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for all zones. A Small Craft Advisory goes into affect at 12Z before the Gale Warning at 15Z and will likely need another Small craft as the winds ramp down later Sunday.
Small Craft criteria wind gusts are also expected for the Columbia River Bar late Sunday morning into the afternoon.
Seas will build to 8-10 feet at 10-12 seconds Sunday afternoon, persisting into Monday. Another westerly swell will enter the waters toward the middle of next week with seas of 10-12 feet at 12-16 seconds. -Batz
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ251>253-271>273.
Gale Warning from 8 AM to 2 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ251>253-271>273.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 230 PM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024
SYNOPSIS
Increasing clouds and little light rain around this evening. But, rain will be increasing later tonight into Sunday morning as rather strong weather system arrives. Rain, will be heavy at times Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Front will push inland early Monday, with some showers around for the rest of the day through Tuesday. Then, high pressure builds over the western USA, with a return of more typical late June warmth.
SHORT TERM
(Sat night through Mon)
KEY NOTES: 1) Rain, heavy at times, for Sunday and Sunday night
2) Local ponding of water expected in low-lying areas Sunday through Sunday night, but river flooding is NOT expected.
3) Showers for Monday and Tuesday
4) Warmer for Thu into the weekend, with inland highs in 80s
Mild afternoon around the region, under quite a bit of mid and high clouds. Temperatures mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast, with upper 60s to lower 70s across the interior. Have had few sprinkles around the area, and that will continue into this evening.
No big changes to the current forecasts, as everything seems be on track. Will leave previous discussion intact, as most seems appropriate to repeat:
Weather for Sunday will be anything but normal as a potent late-season low pressure system couples with a moderate to strong atmospheric river to bring a very wet day to SW Washington and NW Oregon. Recent model trends of ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI)
continues to suggest a high-end event climatologically, with EFI values in excess of 0.9 for most of our Cascades and a Shift-of-Tails (SOT) in the 1 to 2 range. The SOT values in excess of 1 indicate the potential for rainfall to approach record levels for this time of year. In other words, Sunday's system will behave much more like one of our moisture-laden autumn frontal systems than the typical weaker systems we would come to expect in late spring. If anything, the 00z GEFS has more moisture involved with Sunday's system, with NAEFS means solidly in the +4 to +6 standardized anomaly range for moisture transport and a return interval (in late May/early June) on the order of 10-30 years All this points to a high-end rainfall event for early June, and one that will qualify as a significant rain event for any time of the year across our region.
Perhaps the most concerning aspect of this system is the combination of unusually deep moisture with an unusually strong early June system, along with strong orographic enhancement for the Coast Range and Cascades. Fortunately, most of our rivers are starting off low or near summertime base flows, which should mitigate most hydro concerns for this event. However, the potential for extreme rainfall rates is there, especially for the higher terrain where HRRR 90th percentile rain rates suggest there could be a solid 6-12 hour period with rainfall rates exceeding 0.25-0.40"/hr. This could be enough to cause some minor debris flows, especially in recently burned areas. Such rainfall rates could also cause some of our flashier creeks and rivers to jump their banks - the Grays River in particular comes to mind, but much will depend on the alignment of the atmospheric river during the peak of our event. Will have to monitor this, and see where rainfall starts setting up on Sunday.
Overall, based on NBM deterministic guidance, inland valleys can expect 1-2 inches of rain from this event through Monday night, though downsloping may hold Hood River short of 1 inch. The coast can expect to see 1.50-3.00 inches, with 2-4 inches likely for the Coast Range and Cascades. Looking at 75th percentile NBM guidance, there is the possibility for some Coast Range/Cascade locations to exceed 4 inches. This potential rings especially true after looking at the 00z HRRR mean QPF, which only runs through 5 PM Sunday but already shows multiple areas in the Coast Range/Cascades exceeding 2 inches by then... with 6-12 hours still to go before the steady, locally heavy rain comes to an end. WPC suggested a marginal risk of issues due to excessive rainfall in their Day 3 outlook for 12z Sun to 12z Mon - which certainly seems warranted considering all these factors.
Latest deterministic guidance brings an end to the steadier rain Monday morning as a fast-moving cold front sweeps across the Pac NW.
Cool air aloft behind this system will result in plenty of showers Monday and, depending on how many sunbreaks there are, potentially even a couple thunderstorms. Sunday through Monday will see occasionally blustery S-SW winds as mixing increases and 850 mb winds occasionally push into the 40-50 kt range, though the strongest winds appear to be focusing on Sunday night based on the latest guidance.
Given the potential for mixing down of the stronger winds aloft is higher than it usually is during our winter events due to the stronger sun this time of year, just about anywhere in our CWA could see 30-40 mph gusts at times Sunday through Monday. Exposed, higher elevations in the Cascades could easily see periods with W-SW wind gusts exceeding 50 mph Sunday through Monday. All in all, the weather Sunday and Monday is likely to bring the all-too- familiar "June-uary" back into our lexicon here in the Pac NW. For those who are craving more typical summer weather, you won't have to wait long - see the long term discussion below for details on a potential heat wave by next weekend. /Weagle
LONG TERM
Tuesday through Friday...Subtropical moisture remains entrained in the broader baroclinic zone stalled across the NE Pacific and Pac NW Monday night. Meanwhile, most deterministic guidance continues to depict a fast-moving shortwave being pushed toward the Pac NW on the unseasonably strong jet stream. Some models guide this system closer to the Canadian border, while others such as the 06z NAM hint at a track far enough south to bring another round of significant rainfall to at least our northern zones. Given the moisture rich environment and the recent rainfall from Sunday, this system will need to be watched closely as another shot of heavy rain Tuesday could push some drainages out of their banks. NBM median QPF for Tuesday's system is less than 1 inch throughout the CWA, but looking upwards to the NBM 90th percentile QPF, one can see that there is some potential for higher 1-3 inch amounts for the Coast Range and Cascades north of about a Tillamook-Detroit line.
Conversely, NBM 10th percentile QPF shows less than 0.25" anywhere in our CWA, so considerable variability remains.
Starting midweek, models are suggesting a high likelihood of a strong upper level ridge of high pressure developing somewhere over the Western United States. Looking at the 00z WPC cluster analyses, all clusters are now indicating positive 500 mb height anomalies over WA/OR (i.e. above-normal temperatures in most cases) by Thursday.
Therefore confidence in above-normal temperatures by the end of the week is very high - the challenge is in determining just how much above normal temps will be.
Most 00z WPC clusters suggest the upper ridge axis will be far enough inland to maintain at least some vestige of onshore flow in the low-levels, so this does not appear to be the type of warm spell that reaches the coast. The WPC cluster most favored by ensemble members is also the hottest one, with the most significant 500 mb height anomalies. However this solution is still only shown by 40-50% of members - mostly from the EC ensemble suite - so things can still change. Unsurprisingly though, NBM probs of reaching 90 degrees for the inland valleys have increased a bit, reflecting the greater number of members showing the hot solution. As of the 07z run of the NBM, the probabilities of reaching 90 degrees in the interior lowlands were generally 30-60% for Friday and Saturday, but the probabilities of reaching 100 degrees remain below 15%. Pattern recognition-wise, this has the look of a prolonged but low-intensity heat event with multiple days in the upper 80s to mid 90s for the inland valleys. This type of heat event, while not necessarily record breaking, can still be problematic for those who are sensitive to heat. With all this in mind, those sensitive to heat should pay close attention to the forecast the next few days, and perhaps consider where they may go to stay cool late next week should the hotter forecast guidance prevail. Weagle
AVIATION
VFR conditions remain in place across the area ahead of an approaching storm system. Winds across the interior valley are light and variable and around 10 knots along the coast from the west/northwest.
A potent for June storm approaches overnight with rain bringing widespread MVFR to IFR conditions late tonight to the coast. Along with lower cigs, visibilities likely reduced due to the rain.
Inland areas likely to remain VFR but will see clouds filling in over the mountains. HRRR shows about a 20-40% chance for MVFR cigs over the valley after 08Z Sun but coverage is more sporadic until later in the afternoon when guidance suggests widespread MVFR CIGs .
Southwest winds will pick up SUnday morning to between 10-15 knots with gusts in the teens, possibly 20+ knots at KNOP and KAST along the coast.
PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected through the evening with passing sprinkles. A much stronger storm will bring widespread moderate to heavy rain overnight and through Sunday.
HRRR shows a about a 20% chance for cigs near 3000 feet after 8Z but is sporadic and not widespread. Light winds overnight will pick up from the southwest after dawn at around 10 knots and gusts up to 15 knots. -Batz
MARINE
A strong storm system will move into the northeast Pacific Sunday shifting winds southerly. Small Craft Wind gusts are likely with 90+% chance of gusts exceeding 21 kts. NBM probabilities for Gale Force winds remain around 10-30% but the deterministic and HRRR guidance have trended stronger with a 60-90+% chance for gale force gusts, mainly 15-21Z on Sunday.
Given the upward trend in guidance and better potential for a brief coastal jet, have upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for all zones. A Small Craft Advisory goes into affect at 12Z before the Gale Warning at 15Z and will likely need another Small craft as the winds ramp down later Sunday.
Small Craft criteria wind gusts are also expected for the Columbia River Bar late Sunday morning into the afternoon.
Seas will build to 8-10 feet at 10-12 seconds Sunday afternoon, persisting into Monday. Another westerly swell will enter the waters toward the middle of next week with seas of 10-12 feet at 12-16 seconds. -Batz
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 5 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ251>253-271>273.
Gale Warning from 8 AM to 2 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ251>253-271>273.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Tide / Current for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) HIDE Help
Vancouver
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:42 AM PDT Moonrise
Sat -- 03:12 AM PDT 1.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:24 AM PDT Sunrise
Sat -- 11:14 AM PDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:23 PM PDT 1.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:25 PM PDT Moonset
Sat -- 08:53 PM PDT Sunset
Sat -- 11:20 PM PDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:42 AM PDT Moonrise
Sat -- 03:12 AM PDT 1.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:24 AM PDT Sunrise
Sat -- 11:14 AM PDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:23 PM PDT 1.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:25 PM PDT Moonset
Sat -- 08:53 PM PDT Sunset
Sat -- 11:20 PM PDT 0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.5 |
| 1 am |
| 1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.4 |
| 3 am |
| 1.6 |
| 4 am |
| 1.5 |
| 5 am |
| 1.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.2 |
| 7 am |
| 1.1 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 0.5 |
| 11 am |
| 0.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.2 |
Knappa
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:46 AM PDT Moonrise
Sat -- 04:47 AM PDT 1.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:26 AM PDT Sunrise
Sat -- 10:08 AM PDT 6.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:29 PM PDT Moonset
Sat -- 04:42 PM PDT 0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:59 PM PDT Sunset
Sat -- 10:43 PM PDT 8.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:46 AM PDT Moonrise
Sat -- 04:47 AM PDT 1.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:26 AM PDT Sunrise
Sat -- 10:08 AM PDT 6.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:29 PM PDT Moonset
Sat -- 04:42 PM PDT 0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:59 PM PDT Sunset
Sat -- 10:43 PM PDT 8.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 6.3 |
| 1 am |
| 5 |
| 2 am |
| 3.6 |
| 3 am |
| 2.4 |
| 4 am |
| 1.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1.4 |
| 6 am |
| 2.1 |
| 7 am |
| 3.3 |
| 8 am |
| 4.7 |
| 9 am |
| 5.9 |
| 10 am |
| 6.4 |
| 11 am |
| 6.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 5.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 4.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 5.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 6.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 8 |
| 11 pm |
| 8.3 |
Portland, OR,
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