Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Delphos, KS
June 16, 2024 3:41 AM CDT (08:41 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:03 AM Sunset 8:59 PM Moonrise 2:56 PM Moonset 1:32 AM |
FXUS63 KTOP 160815 AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated to scattered storms will linger into the mid morning hours.
- Hot and humid continue will continue into Tuesday afternoon.
- A cold front will move south and become stationary across the area. The boundary will provide a chance for showers and storms Tuesday night through Thursday night.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Early this morning an upper trough extended across western MN, south- southwest across eastern KS into central OK. A more amplified upper trough was located across west central Canada with an upper trough axis extending west-southwest across the Pacific northwest.
At the surface an outflow boundary was detected from northwest KS and extended southeast to near SLN, then extended east-northeast to south of TOP and across LWC.
Weak isentropic lift north of the outflow boundary and ascent within the H5 trough axis continued to cause cluster of thunderstorms to develop across much of the CWA The severe thunderstorms threat has ended, though a few strong thunderstorms north of I-70 may continue, especially to the north of I-70. As the H5 trough axis moves east into MO, the showers and thunderstorms will begin to weaken and dissipate by mid morning.
Today through Tuesday:
Most deterministic numerical models and ensemble members keep the CWA dry. A weak southern stream parturition will move across the the TX Pnhdl and bring a chance for showers and storms across northwest OK and southwest KS this afternoon. The more amplified H5 trough across west central Canada and the Great Basin will lift northeast across northern Plains Today. The western half of the Pacific Northwest H5 trough will amplify and dig southward across the Great Basin while a second H5 trough across western Canada digs southward towards the US border through 12Z MON. A surface cold front will push southward across the northern Plains and will stall out across central NE Tonight.
Monday, the Great Basin H5 trough will phase with the H5 trough across west central Canada. An H5 ridge will amplify across the east coast of the US. A lee surface trough will deepen across the central high Plains and cause the stationary front across central NE to lift northward into southern SD. A dryline will push east into the CO/KS border late in the afternoon which may provide sufficient ascent for thunderstorms to develop across western KS.
The western KS storms will remain west of the CWA, as the main H5 jet streak lifts northeast across the central and northern high Plains.
Tuesday, a broad H5 trough will develop across the southwestern US as the more amplified H5 trough across the northern Plains lifts northeast into the northern Gretal Lakes and Ontario, Canada. Low- level CAA across the northern Plains will cause a cold front to push southeast across western and central NE Tuesday afternoon.
At this time the front should remain north of the CWA during the late afternoon hours as both the GFS and ECMWF show. I cannot rule out a few thunderstorms developing across northwest counties by late Tuesday afternoon as the front approaches.
High temperatures Today through Tuesday will reach into the 90s, with some readings near 100 degrees across the southwest counties this afternoon and Monday afternoon. Heat indicies will generally be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees during the afternoon hours. The southwest counties may reach around 103 degrees this afternoon and Monday afternoon. At this time it looks as if heat advisory criteria, Heat index of 105 degree or higher, will not be met.
Tuesday night through Friday,
The surface front across western and southern NE will shift southeast across the CWA but will become stationary along or just south of I-70. Minor perturbations will lift northeast across the central high Plains around the broad H5 trough across the southwest US. The combination of surface convergence along the boundary and isentropic lift north of the boundary, and any minor perturbations moving northeast around a broad H5 ridge axis across the southern Plains and east coast may provide enough ascent ahead and north of the stationary boundary for shower and storm chances through the period. During the day on Friday the longer range models forecast the surface boundary to shift north through NE into SD. This will probably bring an end to our rain chance as an upper level ridge amplifies across the southern and central Plains. The thunderstorms during this period probably will not be strong or severe as the H5 southwesterly flow over eastern half of KS, looks to be weak, with only 10 to 15 KTS. But any pulse storm that develop in the afternoon hours could produce a strong wind gusts but will remain very isolated.
Friday night through Sunday:
The Broad upper ridge will remain over the southern Plains and northward into KS. A couple of H5 troughs will ride over the southern Plains ridge and may cause a surface front to push southward across the area on Sunday, bringing a chance for showers and storms. Saturday looks hot with highs reaching the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. If the front does shifts south across the area on Sunday, highs may cool slightly into the upper 80s to mid 90s.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the terminals through the mid morning hours. Otherwise.
expect VFR conditions. Southerly winds will increase during the mid morning hours from 190 degrees at 12 to 16 KTS with gusts of 22 to 26 KTS. The winds will diminish after sunset.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Isolated to scattered storms will linger into the mid morning hours.
- Hot and humid continue will continue into Tuesday afternoon.
- A cold front will move south and become stationary across the area. The boundary will provide a chance for showers and storms Tuesday night through Thursday night.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Early this morning an upper trough extended across western MN, south- southwest across eastern KS into central OK. A more amplified upper trough was located across west central Canada with an upper trough axis extending west-southwest across the Pacific northwest.
At the surface an outflow boundary was detected from northwest KS and extended southeast to near SLN, then extended east-northeast to south of TOP and across LWC.
Weak isentropic lift north of the outflow boundary and ascent within the H5 trough axis continued to cause cluster of thunderstorms to develop across much of the CWA The severe thunderstorms threat has ended, though a few strong thunderstorms north of I-70 may continue, especially to the north of I-70. As the H5 trough axis moves east into MO, the showers and thunderstorms will begin to weaken and dissipate by mid morning.
Today through Tuesday:
Most deterministic numerical models and ensemble members keep the CWA dry. A weak southern stream parturition will move across the the TX Pnhdl and bring a chance for showers and storms across northwest OK and southwest KS this afternoon. The more amplified H5 trough across west central Canada and the Great Basin will lift northeast across northern Plains Today. The western half of the Pacific Northwest H5 trough will amplify and dig southward across the Great Basin while a second H5 trough across western Canada digs southward towards the US border through 12Z MON. A surface cold front will push southward across the northern Plains and will stall out across central NE Tonight.
Monday, the Great Basin H5 trough will phase with the H5 trough across west central Canada. An H5 ridge will amplify across the east coast of the US. A lee surface trough will deepen across the central high Plains and cause the stationary front across central NE to lift northward into southern SD. A dryline will push east into the CO/KS border late in the afternoon which may provide sufficient ascent for thunderstorms to develop across western KS.
The western KS storms will remain west of the CWA, as the main H5 jet streak lifts northeast across the central and northern high Plains.
Tuesday, a broad H5 trough will develop across the southwestern US as the more amplified H5 trough across the northern Plains lifts northeast into the northern Gretal Lakes and Ontario, Canada. Low- level CAA across the northern Plains will cause a cold front to push southeast across western and central NE Tuesday afternoon.
At this time the front should remain north of the CWA during the late afternoon hours as both the GFS and ECMWF show. I cannot rule out a few thunderstorms developing across northwest counties by late Tuesday afternoon as the front approaches.
High temperatures Today through Tuesday will reach into the 90s, with some readings near 100 degrees across the southwest counties this afternoon and Monday afternoon. Heat indicies will generally be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees during the afternoon hours. The southwest counties may reach around 103 degrees this afternoon and Monday afternoon. At this time it looks as if heat advisory criteria, Heat index of 105 degree or higher, will not be met.
Tuesday night through Friday,
The surface front across western and southern NE will shift southeast across the CWA but will become stationary along or just south of I-70. Minor perturbations will lift northeast across the central high Plains around the broad H5 trough across the southwest US. The combination of surface convergence along the boundary and isentropic lift north of the boundary, and any minor perturbations moving northeast around a broad H5 ridge axis across the southern Plains and east coast may provide enough ascent ahead and north of the stationary boundary for shower and storm chances through the period. During the day on Friday the longer range models forecast the surface boundary to shift north through NE into SD. This will probably bring an end to our rain chance as an upper level ridge amplifies across the southern and central Plains. The thunderstorms during this period probably will not be strong or severe as the H5 southwesterly flow over eastern half of KS, looks to be weak, with only 10 to 15 KTS. But any pulse storm that develop in the afternoon hours could produce a strong wind gusts but will remain very isolated.
Friday night through Sunday:
The Broad upper ridge will remain over the southern Plains and northward into KS. A couple of H5 troughs will ride over the southern Plains ridge and may cause a surface front to push southward across the area on Sunday, bringing a chance for showers and storms. Saturday looks hot with highs reaching the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. If the front does shifts south across the area on Sunday, highs may cool slightly into the upper 80s to mid 90s.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the terminals through the mid morning hours. Otherwise.
expect VFR conditions. Southerly winds will increase during the mid morning hours from 190 degrees at 12 to 16 KTS with gusts of 22 to 26 KTS. The winds will diminish after sunset.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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Wind History graph: CNK
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Topeka, KS,
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