Sunrise 5:11 AM   Sunset 9:06 PM Moonrise 1:34 PM   Moonset 12:42 AM

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LSZ141 Expires:202406130119;;915623 Fzus73 Kdlh 130109 Mwsdlh
marine weather statement national weather service duluth mn 809 pm cdt Wed jun 12 2024
lsz140>142-162-130119- /o.exp.kdlh.ma.w.0010.000000t0000z-240613t0115z/ 809 pm cdt Wed jun 12 2024
.the special marine warning will expire at 815 pm cdt - .
the affected areas were - . Grand marais to taconite harbor mn - . Grand portage to grand marais mn - . Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm - . Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn - .
the Thunderstorms have weakened and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters.
a severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 pm cdt for northeastern minnesota - .and the adjacent waters of lake superior.
&&
lat - .lon 4778 8979 4734 9075 4748 9104 4758 9088 4773 9055 4781 9023 time - .mot - .loc 0109z 265deg 31kt 4774 9044 4755 9032

LSZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDLH 151127 AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 627 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Severe weather is not expected, but heavy rainfall could cause localized minor flooding mainly in northwest Wisconsin tonight (~25% chance).

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Sunday afternoon and evening (~5% chance). Large hail and strong winds are the main threats.

- The threat for very heavy rain and flash flooding is increasing Monday through Tuesday (~35% chance), and scattered strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail are also possible (15% chance) Monday afternoon into Monday night.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 452 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Showers have been persistent for parts of northeast Minnesota this morning with some lift from a passing wave aloft. This area of rain will continue but gradually diminish around mid-day.
Then, increasingly strong southerly flow containing warm air and moisture will advect northward this afternoon into tonight, and in association with a broader shortwave passing by aloft, an area of rain and embedded thunderstorms is expected to develop.
PWATs rising to 1.50"-1.75" will be supportive for heavy rain, mainly in northwest Wisconsin, through early Sunday morning. NBM probabilities for >1" are ~40%, and >2" about 10%. Most model ensembles are in good agreement for around 1"-2", and with this first round of rain being fairly progressive, the threat for flash flooding will be pretty low, but about 25% chance for some localized minor flooding given already saturated soils from previous rains.

Strong warm air advection on Sunday will lead to some pretty impressive instability building, though we will also have a strong cap in place. This will combine with weak subsidence aloft to suppress thunderstorm potential (but not completely).
If we can get the cap to bust, there's potential for 2-3k J/kg of MUCAPE to be realized. The latest short-range models suggest a weak cold front could act as an initial trigger for thunderstorms late Sunday evening. Given the initially elevated nature of these storms, large hail will be the main threat (5% chance). But if they can get organized, they could form a line as they traverse east into northwest Wisconsin Sunday evening, and then a threat for damaging winds could develop (5% chance).
These storms should push east late Sunday night.

Another threat Sunday will be some pretty hot temperatures with some sunshine before storms develop. Highs in the upper 80s are expected in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
Those sensitive to heat, especially without effective cooling or adequate hydration, will be most at risk for being affected by these toasty temperatures.

After a very brief potential break in rain for a time late Sunday night, the next round is expected Monday morning as a strong and very moist southwesterly jet sets up aloft, attendant with several passing upper level waves. A very strong push of warm/moist southerly flow at the surface will develop Monday afternoon, and models continue to very highly suggest that there will be strong frontogenesis in the form of a warm front that will set up somewhere in the upper Midwest. At this point, it's looking most likely anywhere from southern Minnesota up to northern Minnesota, with a west-to-east axis from the Dakotas into Upper Michigan. It's still unclear where exactly in this area the front will set up, but there's starting to be a little more agreement in recent model runs. Another piece of uncertainty is how transient the front will be. If it becomes quasi-stationary for a time, then the threat for localized, high-impact flash flooding becomes a real possibility. If it has gradual movement, then the threat for flash flooding still remains high, but impacts could be moderated a bit and more spread out. At this time, it looks like the front may be more slowly moving (i.e. transient), but this could certainly change. Either solution is not a good one, because with PWAT values potentially reaching around 2" (just about as high as they ever get around here), the threat for flash flooding somewhere around the region Monday evening through Tuesday is increasing (~35% at this time). Model soundings are suggestive of deep saturation in the low levels, which means warm rain processes more commonly found in tropical regions (collision- coalescence) may occur here, and this is very efficient at producing heavy rainfall accumulations.

With elevated instability increasing Monday night, there is also a threat for some scattered severe storms (~5-15% chance). Given that most of these will be elevated, large hail will be the main threat, and the potential for severe storms will also be dependent on where the warm front sets up.

Going into Tuesday, a cold front is likely to pass through and bring more chances for scattered severe storms (~5-15% chance).
Damaging winds may be the greatest threat with these as storms likely form into a line that passes through from west to east and gradually ends both the heavy rain and severe storm threat around Tuesday evening or so.

Perhaps a break in the active weather on Wednesday as models suggest possible high pressure, then it looks like potentially more active weather late-week into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Area of showers affecting HIB/INL this morning could result in brief MVFR visibilities, but otherwise VFR this morning. Winds will increase from the south today and remain gusty into tonight with gusts a few knots above or below 20 knots expected. Another round of rain will approach from the southwest this afternoon, affecting BRD/HYR/DLH mainly going into this evening. With this, ceilings are expected to gradually fall to IFR and MVFR visibilities are expected at times. Some embedded thunderstorms are possible, especially at HYR, this evening and overnight.
Even if rain doesn't affect HIB/INL, ceilings are still expected to fall to IFR with plenty of low level moisture moving in from the south.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 426 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Northeast winds develop today from around 5-10 kt, gusting up to 20 kt this afternoon. Waves up to 2 or perhaps 3 ft locally are expected. Winds only slightly weaken tonight into Sunday, remaining east to northeasterly. Rain and thunderstorms are expected tonight through Sunday morning, especially along the South Shore. Scattered strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail or strong winds are possible Sunday late afternoon and evening (~5% chance).

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

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