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LEZ148 Expires:202406151415;;044746 Fzus51 Kcle 150736 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 336 am edt Sat jun 15 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>148-151415- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh- 336 am edt Sat jun 15 2024
Today - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 70 degrees, off cleveland 67 degrees, and off erie 68 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KPBZ 151740 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 140 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
After a dry and comfortable overnight period, a large ridge will build over the region Sunday and remain in place through the rest of next week. A prolonged and potentially dangerous heat wave is anticipated under this ridge.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather and comfortable conditions tonight.
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Surface high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will continue to drift eastward tonight, while 500mb heights begin to rise ahead of an approaching ridge. A mostly clear sky is expected, save for a few patches of high clouds. Low dewpoints will promote a comfortable overnight period. Minimum temperatures will end up near or just below seasonal norms. That will be the last time for a while that we will be able to say that.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues.
- Noticeably warmer temperatures on Sunday.
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The upper ridge axis will arrive on Sunday and park itself over the eastern Great Lakes and the Upper Ohio Valley, while the 500mb high at the core of the ridge begins to expand over the Carolinas. As the surface high moves off of the New England coast, wind will veer to the south and create strong warm advection into our region. This will provide continued dry weather and a noticeable upward bump in high temperatures on Sunday, some 7 to 11 degrees areawide.
Some urban/valley locations will likely reach the 90 degree threshold - representing the start of a likely lengthy run of such temperatures.

A dry and balmy Sunday night is forecast, with lows in the mid and upper 60s. After this, the heat is on.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- High confidence in a dangerous heat wave setting up next week with major heat impacts possible.
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The numbers have changed slightly, but our overall expectations have not changed for this period. We are looking at a potentially historic heat wave for Pittsburgh and the Upper Ohio Valley, with impacts to public health and utilities a strong possibility.

Model cluster analysis continues to paint a high-confidence picture of the overall pattern. An anomalously strong 500 mb ridge will persist over the eastern CONUS Monday through Friday, reaching its peak during the Wednesday/Thursday period, before potentially becoming a bit more muted Saturday. Both the EPS and GEFS means have 500mb heights of 595dm or higher during that period, and some deterministic runs are even a bit higher. This sets the stage for a prolonged period of high temperatures well into the 90s. NBM means are in the lower to mid 90s as a rule through this period. There is a good possibility that these values are underdone. Probabilities of 95 degree or higher temperatures are in the 60 to 80 percent range for a large portion of the forecast area (especially valleys and urban areas) during the Tuesday to Thursday period to begin with.
Also, given the strength/position of this ridge, precipitation chances are quite low, especially during the mid- week period, which will promote an increasing dry surface that will promote higher temperatures. Cloud cover will be fairly low as well, and given that sun angles are at their annual peak, insolation will add another warming factor. Considering all of this, will follow the lead of the previous shift and run with close to the 75th percentile NBM values for high temperatures, while using the mean for low temperatures. This means that the forecast will include highs in the upper 90s for much of the region, with valley and urbanized areas still having the potential to reach 100 degrees. This level becomes a bit more likely if dewpoints end up on the lower end of the expected mid 60s to lower 70s range. NBM probabilities for triple digit heat have tailed off slightly, into the 25 to 50 percent range in favored valley/urban areas.

When considering dewpoints, heat index values in the 100 to 110 range are in the cards for a few days. There does remain some uncertainty in how widespread and long-lasting these kind of heat index values will be from day to day. This nominally has implications for what kinds of heat-related headlines would be appropriate. However, we feel that this event will have a length and impact that the standard criteria may not capture. For example, there is a strong possibility of 95 degree or higher temperatures at the Pittsburgh climate site for at least five straight days next week (NBM probs 70 percent or greater each day). This kind of heat wave last happened at Pittsburgh in 1994. Matching or even exceeding that standard will no doubt have many societal impacts. Thus, to keep awareness high and capture this potential impact, an Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for the entire forecast area for Monday through Friday. Decisions on heat related advisories and/or warnings will be made by future shifts, but at this time, highlighting the entire period without getting too bogged down in details seemed prudent. Uncertainty for Saturday heat starts to increase to the point that it was not included in this watch product.

There are a couple of failure modes to this forecast that could occur, at least on a localized basis. Non-zero chances of isolated convection exist, particularly in the terrain.
Localized breaching of any capping inversion could in theory set of a convective chain reaction, leading to more clouds and precipitation areawide than expected. Slight differences in ridge positioning may allow for a bit more cloud cover, particularly in eastern Ohio, that could provide a potential cooling effect. Current thinking is that these concerns can't be totally dismissed, but are small enough for now to expect widespread heat impact.

Potential impacts include heightened heat-related illnesses and power grid issues with increased demand. It is strongly encouraged to know where cooling shelters are located and stay hydrated. There may be little relief at night. Gather food, water and medication now. Make a list of friends and family to check on and help them prepare. Strongly consider rescheduling outdoor events. Prolonged exposure to excessive heat was the primary cause of weather-related fatalities in 2023.

Please see the Climate section below for more numerical details on the kinds of records that may be in jeopardy.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions, dry weather, and light winds from the north are likely for the remainder of the TAF period under high pressure.

Winds will shift from south Sunday evening.

Outlook
High probability for VFR and dry weather through the middle of next week as strong ridging develops aloft.

The only variance may come with isolated afternoon convection starting Monday, but upper ridging should suppress coverage and potential initiation.

CLIMATE
The area has the potential to break various heat-related records. In this climate section, we will attempt to address some of the higher-profile historical temperature records.

First, we cannot rule out that some sites approach all time record high temperatures:

Pittsburgh, PA: 103F (7/16/1988, 8/6/1918, 7/10/1881)
Wheeling, WV: 106F (7/22/1934, 8/6/1918)
Morgantown, WV: 105F (8/26/1893)
New Philadelphia, OH: 102F (7/17/1988)
Zanesville, OH: 106F (7/14/1936, 7/25/1934)
DuBois, PA: 101F (07/22/2011)

There is moderate probability that climate sites approach the highest temperatures recorded in the 21st century:

Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (7/7/2012)
Wheeling, WV: 98F (7/7/2012)
Morgantown, WV: 101F (7/7/2012)
New Philadelphia, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
Zanesville, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
DuBois, PA: 101F (7/22/2011)

Due to the how early in the summer this heat wave is, there is a high probability many June all-time temperature records may be at stake:

Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (1988)
Wheeling, WV: 100F (1933)
Morgantown, WV: 99F (1893)
New Philadelphia, OH: 99F (1988)
Zanesville, OH: 101F (1988,1934)
DuBois, PA: 92F (1969)

Due to the duration of the heat, sites will also approach records for consecutive days greater than 95F (dates are the day the streak ended):

Pittsburgh, PA: 6 (6/20/1994, 8/11/1900)
Wheeling, WV: 8 (7/15/1936)
Morgantown, WV: 9 (9/16/1997, 7/19/1892)
New Philadelphia, OH: 5 (7/27/2016, 7/10/1988)
Zanesville, OH: 9 (9/4/1953)
DuBois, PA: 3 (7/9/1988)

And it should go without question that daily high maximum (left)
and high minimum (right) temperature records are at stake for:

Monday, June 17th Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1994) 75F (1892)
Wheeling, WV: 99F (1936) 69F (2004)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1967) 72F (1939)
New Philadelphia, OH: 95F (1967) 69F (2022)
Zanesville, OH: 99F (1936) 72F (1994)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1994) 66F (1892)

Tuesday, June 18th Pittsburgh, PA: 97F (1994) 73F (1905)
Wheeling, WV: 95F (1944) 71F (2018)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1994) 70F (2018)
New Philadelphia, OH: 95F (1994) 72F (2017)
Zanesville, OH: 99F (1944) 73F (1944)
DuBois, PA: 89F (2018) 69F (2018)

Wednesday, June 19th Pittsburgh, PA: 97F (1994) 74F (1905)
Wheeling, WV: 95F (1933) 70F (2021)
Morgantown, WV: 94F (1994) 72F (2018)
New Philadelphia, OH: 92F (1994) 70F (2018)
Zanesville, OH: 94F (1994) 75F (1897)
DuBois, PA: 87F (2001) 66F (1975)

Thursday, June 20th Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1994) 78F (1924)
Wheeling, WV: 97F (1933) 70F (1924)
Morgantown, WV: 99F (1893) 75F (1924)
New Philadelphia, OH: 95F (1994) 71F (2009)
Zanesville, OH: 98F (1934) 75F (1924)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1991) 66F (1996)

Friday, June 21st Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1933) 73F (1934)
Wheeling, WV: 99F (1933) 69F (2016)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1953) 72F (1988)
New Philadelphia, OH: 94F (1994) 72F (2016)
Zanesville, OH: 97F (1988) 72F (1997)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1991) 68F (1988)

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday evening for PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday evening for OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday evening for WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.

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