Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grandyle Village, NY
June 15, 2024 4:55 PM EDT (20:55 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:34 AM Sunset 8:58 PM Moonrise 1:41 PM Moonset 12:55 AM |
LEZ020 Upper Niagara River And Buffalo Harbor- 431 Am Edt Sat Jun 15 2024
Today - North winds 10 knots or less. Sunny.
Tonight - Northeast winds less than 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy.
Sunday - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly Sunny.
Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly cloudy.
Monday - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Becoming mainly clear.
Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Wednesday - Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy.
the water temperature off buffalo is 65 degrees.
the water temperature off buffalo is 65 degrees.
LEZ005
No data
No data
FXUS61 KBUF 152042 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 442 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build over the eastern Great Lakes tonight before moving off the New England coast Sunday, bringing a continuation of dry weather to the region. It will be cool tonight, then a warming trend begins Sunday. Heat and humidity will build Monday, and last through much of next week with high temperatures in the 90s and dangerous heat index values peaking in the upper 90s to low 100s Tuesday and Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Visible satellite imagery late this afternoon showing diurnal cu fields along and inland of lake breeze circulations starting to shrink a bit as mixing continues to deplete what lingering low level moisture there is left. As we lose daytime heating toward early evening and thus diurnal mixing ceases, any lingering diurnal cu will dissipate, leaving mainly clear skies later this evening.
Temperatures will mainly range from the mid 60s to around 70 through sunset.
Tonight, surface high pressure centered over Lake Huron will settle across the eastern Great Lakes. Light winds, clear skies, and a cool/dry airmass will allow for good radiational cooling. Lows will drop back into the 40s for inland locations, with lower 50s along the immediate lakeshores. Some of the coolest locations in the North Country may even drop into the upper 30s.
Sunday, surface high pressure will drift east across New England, then off the east coast by evening. Increasing warm advection in the wake of the departing high will bring some periods of high cirrus, but these should remain thin enough to still yield a mostly sunny day. Temperatures will begin to increase, with highs in the low to mid 80s for Western NY, and 70s for the North Country.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Dangerous Heat Wave Will Begin to Impact the Region
Broad mid-level ridging centered across the Great Lakes Sunday will continue its eastward progression into the eastern Great Lakes and eventually center over the Northeast by Tuesday. Meanwhile within the ridging, a shortwave trough will ride the top of the ridge Sunday into Monday well to the north of the region. While this shortwave trough indicates some active weather Sunday night, its placement well to the north should keep most of the activity to the north of the area though a few showers may be possible across the North Country. Despite the ridge and surface high in place across the Northeast, there is a slight chance for the potential for diurnally driven convection.
Outside of this, deep southerly flow will advect in warmth and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico initiating the heat wave for the middle portion of the week. Of the first two days of the new work week, Monday will be cooler. Though this being said, it will still be quite sultry with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the region and low to mid 90s across the climatologically warmer spots of the Genesee Valley. Given not much respite in temperatures Monday night (lows ranging in the upper 60s to low 70s), temperatures Tuesday will soar into the 90s, with the typically hot spots of the Genesee Valley approaching the 100 degree mark.
The hot high temperatures combined with the humidity will create heat index values Monday to range in the upper 80s to mid 90s, whereas Tuesday will see heat index values between 95 and 105 degrees. With such hot conditions, please remember to drink plenty of fluids, stay in cooler areas (air conditioned or shaded), and wear light loose clothing to help remain cool and avoid heat illness!
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Dangerous Heat Wave Will Continue For The Region
An anomalously strong upper level ridge will be centered from the Mid-Atlantic region to New England region Wednesday. This location is slightly southeast from previous forecasts where the potential 6000 meter high would be centered closer to western and north central NY. This southeast shift may impact the chance for showers and thunderstorms but it will still be hot and humid. The latest NAEFS shows the strength of the 500mb high will reach the maximum for all hours for this time of year across the forecast area. Deep southerly flow will cause hot, humid air to surge across the eastern CONUS. A weak upper level trough will move from the Canadian Rockies to James Bay through the end of the work week and the strong ridge will move south, centering over the Mid-Atlantic region. The ridge will slowly weaken over the Mid-Atlantic region with zonal flow across the forecast area Friday through Saturday.
It will be HOT AND HUMID across the forecast area Wednesday through Saturday. High temperatures will likely peak Wednesday with HIGHS in the mid to upper 90s and LOWS in the mid 70s Wednesday night, before high and lows fall a few degrees each day (Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.) IMPORTANT: While a lot of attention is on the heat and humidity during the day, low temperatures in the 70s will give little relief to this heat wave.
In regards to the probability of precipitation, the slight southeast shift in the ridge Wednesday increases the chance (although still low) for the potential of thunderstorm complexes entering the forecast area Wednesday. As the flow becomes zonal, there remains the low chance of additional showers and thunderstorms entering the region. Confidence is very low this far out. Daytime heating with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will create surface based instability every day. The strong ridge will suppress a lot of activity, with low (15-30%) chances across inland areas and along lake breeze boundaries.
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR will prevail through Sunday as high pressure drifts from the eastern Great Lakes into New England. Diurnal cu along and inland of lake breeze circulations late this afternoon, with bases in the 4-6kft range, will dissipate by early evening. A few periods of high/thin cirrus will then cross the region tonight through Sunday. Winds will be relatively light through the period.
Outlook...
Monday...VFR.
Tuesday through Thursday...VFR, but a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms inland from the lakes.
MARINE
Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the rest of the weekend. Easterly winds will increase Sunday, especially on the central and western portions of Lake Ontario where it will become quite choppy.
Winds will then generally be light Monday through much of next week as high pressure anchors over the Ohio Valley and New England.
CLIMATE
A prolonged period of heat is expected for our region, starting Monday June 17th. Below are record high temperatures for our three main climate sites:
Buffalo
Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...
June 17
94/1994............73/2006
June 18
95/1994............73/2006
June 19
90/2001............73/1919
June 20
92/1995............73/2012
Rochester
Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...
June 17
94/1994............70/1994
June 18
97/1957............72/2018
June 19
95/2001............72/1919
June 20
95/1953............72/1923
Watertown
Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...
June 17
89/1994............68/1949
June 18
91/1957............70/1992
June 19
91/2007............70/1949
June 20
90/1971............71/2012
Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871.
Temperature records for Watertown date back to 1949.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 442 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build over the eastern Great Lakes tonight before moving off the New England coast Sunday, bringing a continuation of dry weather to the region. It will be cool tonight, then a warming trend begins Sunday. Heat and humidity will build Monday, and last through much of next week with high temperatures in the 90s and dangerous heat index values peaking in the upper 90s to low 100s Tuesday and Wednesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Visible satellite imagery late this afternoon showing diurnal cu fields along and inland of lake breeze circulations starting to shrink a bit as mixing continues to deplete what lingering low level moisture there is left. As we lose daytime heating toward early evening and thus diurnal mixing ceases, any lingering diurnal cu will dissipate, leaving mainly clear skies later this evening.
Temperatures will mainly range from the mid 60s to around 70 through sunset.
Tonight, surface high pressure centered over Lake Huron will settle across the eastern Great Lakes. Light winds, clear skies, and a cool/dry airmass will allow for good radiational cooling. Lows will drop back into the 40s for inland locations, with lower 50s along the immediate lakeshores. Some of the coolest locations in the North Country may even drop into the upper 30s.
Sunday, surface high pressure will drift east across New England, then off the east coast by evening. Increasing warm advection in the wake of the departing high will bring some periods of high cirrus, but these should remain thin enough to still yield a mostly sunny day. Temperatures will begin to increase, with highs in the low to mid 80s for Western NY, and 70s for the North Country.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Dangerous Heat Wave Will Begin to Impact the Region
Broad mid-level ridging centered across the Great Lakes Sunday will continue its eastward progression into the eastern Great Lakes and eventually center over the Northeast by Tuesday. Meanwhile within the ridging, a shortwave trough will ride the top of the ridge Sunday into Monday well to the north of the region. While this shortwave trough indicates some active weather Sunday night, its placement well to the north should keep most of the activity to the north of the area though a few showers may be possible across the North Country. Despite the ridge and surface high in place across the Northeast, there is a slight chance for the potential for diurnally driven convection.
Outside of this, deep southerly flow will advect in warmth and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico initiating the heat wave for the middle portion of the week. Of the first two days of the new work week, Monday will be cooler. Though this being said, it will still be quite sultry with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across much of the region and low to mid 90s across the climatologically warmer spots of the Genesee Valley. Given not much respite in temperatures Monday night (lows ranging in the upper 60s to low 70s), temperatures Tuesday will soar into the 90s, with the typically hot spots of the Genesee Valley approaching the 100 degree mark.
The hot high temperatures combined with the humidity will create heat index values Monday to range in the upper 80s to mid 90s, whereas Tuesday will see heat index values between 95 and 105 degrees. With such hot conditions, please remember to drink plenty of fluids, stay in cooler areas (air conditioned or shaded), and wear light loose clothing to help remain cool and avoid heat illness!
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Dangerous Heat Wave Will Continue For The Region
An anomalously strong upper level ridge will be centered from the Mid-Atlantic region to New England region Wednesday. This location is slightly southeast from previous forecasts where the potential 6000 meter high would be centered closer to western and north central NY. This southeast shift may impact the chance for showers and thunderstorms but it will still be hot and humid. The latest NAEFS shows the strength of the 500mb high will reach the maximum for all hours for this time of year across the forecast area. Deep southerly flow will cause hot, humid air to surge across the eastern CONUS. A weak upper level trough will move from the Canadian Rockies to James Bay through the end of the work week and the strong ridge will move south, centering over the Mid-Atlantic region. The ridge will slowly weaken over the Mid-Atlantic region with zonal flow across the forecast area Friday through Saturday.
It will be HOT AND HUMID across the forecast area Wednesday through Saturday. High temperatures will likely peak Wednesday with HIGHS in the mid to upper 90s and LOWS in the mid 70s Wednesday night, before high and lows fall a few degrees each day (Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.) IMPORTANT: While a lot of attention is on the heat and humidity during the day, low temperatures in the 70s will give little relief to this heat wave.
In regards to the probability of precipitation, the slight southeast shift in the ridge Wednesday increases the chance (although still low) for the potential of thunderstorm complexes entering the forecast area Wednesday. As the flow becomes zonal, there remains the low chance of additional showers and thunderstorms entering the region. Confidence is very low this far out. Daytime heating with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will create surface based instability every day. The strong ridge will suppress a lot of activity, with low (15-30%) chances across inland areas and along lake breeze boundaries.
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR will prevail through Sunday as high pressure drifts from the eastern Great Lakes into New England. Diurnal cu along and inland of lake breeze circulations late this afternoon, with bases in the 4-6kft range, will dissipate by early evening. A few periods of high/thin cirrus will then cross the region tonight through Sunday. Winds will be relatively light through the period.
Outlook...
Monday...VFR.
Tuesday through Thursday...VFR, but a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms inland from the lakes.
MARINE
Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the rest of the weekend. Easterly winds will increase Sunday, especially on the central and western portions of Lake Ontario where it will become quite choppy.
Winds will then generally be light Monday through much of next week as high pressure anchors over the Ohio Valley and New England.
CLIMATE
A prolonged period of heat is expected for our region, starting Monday June 17th. Below are record high temperatures for our three main climate sites:
Buffalo
Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...
June 17
94/1994............73/2006
June 18
95/1994............73/2006
June 19
90/2001............73/1919
June 20
92/1995............73/2012
Rochester
Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...
June 17
94/1994............70/1994
June 18
97/1957............72/2018
June 19
95/2001............72/1919
June 20
95/1953............72/1923
Watertown
Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...
June 17
89/1994............68/1949
June 18
91/1957............70/1992
June 19
91/2007............70/1949
June 20
90/1971............71/2012
Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871.
Temperature records for Watertown date back to 1949.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 10 mi | 55 min | N 5.1G | 70°F | 30.13 | |||
| PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 12 mi | 55 min | 30.13 | |||||
| 45142 - Port Colborne | 14 mi | 55 min | SSW 7.8G | 64°F | 66°F | 0 ft | 30.15 | |
| NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 15 mi | 55 min | 30.14 | |||||
| YGNN6 - Niagara Coast Guard , NY | 28 mi | 55 min | NE 1.9G | 69°F | 30.15 | |||
| DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY | 29 mi | 55 min | W 2.9G | 66°F | 30.16 | |||
| 45139 - West Lake Ontario - Grimsby | 36 mi | 55 min | E 7.8G | 64°F | 64°F | 0 ft | 30.14 | |
| OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY | 38 mi | 55 min | N 1.9G | 64°F | 30.17 |
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Buffalo, NY,
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