Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shelburne, VT
June 15, 2024 3:13 PM EDT (19:13 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:05 AM Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 2:17 PM Moonset 1:32 AM |
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 151721 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 121 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A gorgeous weekend is in store with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s and low humidity. This will be short-lived as a long-duration heat event moves in next week. Combined with high humidity, it will cause heat indexes to approach 100 degrees. Warm overnight lows will prevent any nighttime relief so heat related impacts will occur.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 121 PM EDT Saturday...Fair weather cumulus developed a little more in earnest than previously thought, but as progged by guidance the northern edge is beginning to decay as mid- level moisture continues to evaporate. As such, we should see these clouds gradually shift south and dissipate through the afternoon leading to clear skies this evening. Temps are running on track to top out in the low/mid 60s north to low 70s south.
For tonight into tomorrow, strong radiational cooling will drive temperatures into the 40s. Parts of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks are likely to fall down into the 30s. Saranac Lake is forecast to reach 33 at present, coming close to a daily record of 32 early Sunday morning. Some patchy frost has been applied, mostly in the northern Adirondacks. Sunday should be very pleasant with dry weather and light winds. High temperatures will generally be in the 70s.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...Dry conditions continue through Sunday night with heights aloft and cloud cover increasing. A weak trough will be approaching the North Country, but low level high pressure will be building northward at the same time. The result will be much warmer overnight temperatures with lows in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees for most spots. As the trough passes north in Canada Monday, a few showers will be possible, but 1000-500mb thickness will also be increasing. While we can't rule a very rare rumble of thunder in the early afternoon, the most notable conditions Monday will be surging high temperatures from around 80 degrees into the mid 80s. Warming temperatures aloft will likely cap convection late in the afternoon/evening.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...Models continue to favor an anomalously strong ridge to build over the region Tuesday through Thursday with high temperatures above 90 degrees. If the ECMWF has its way, temperatures could eclipse 100 degrees Wednesday. However, the consensus is marginally "cooler" in the mid/upper 90s. Coupled with dew points in the mid/upper 60s to almost 70 degrees, and WBGT will climb and conditions will "feel" around 100 degrees. This is notable for the region with Heat Risk in the Major/Extreme categories for most locations. Plan on dangerous heat next week. Some ways to mitigate these hazardous conditions include limiting outdoor activities, knowing where your local cooling centers will be - especially if you have no AC at home - and staying hydrated.
Overnight temperatures will not provide much relief for most locations with lows ranging in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
Given the heat and higher dew points, showers and a few thunderstorms may occur. Relief from 90+ temperatures may come by the weekend, but temperatures will still be running warmer than seasonal averages.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period with VCFG possible at KMSS from 06-11Z.
Otherwise, fair weather cumulus across the area this afternoon around 5000 feet will dissipate through the afternoon with skies SKC through midnight, before high clouds begin to filter in from the west, becoming SCT-BKN after 12Z Sunday. Gusty NNW winds up to 25kts this afternoon rapidly abate towards 00Z to calm overnight, and variable less than 5kts Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
CLIMATE
Hot temperatures will result in values near records by the middle of next week. Below are some of the records under threat of being broken.
Record High Temperatures:
June 18: KBTV: 97/1994 Forecast 96 KMPV: 93/1994 Forecast 92 KPBG: 94/1994 Forecast 93 KMSS: 97/1994 Forecast 94 KSLK: 94/1907 Forecast 92
June 19: KBTV: 100/1995 Forecast 97 KMPV: 95/1995 Forecast 94 KPBG: 93/2001 Forecast 93 KMSS: 94/1955 Forecast 94 KSLK: 93/1994 Forecast 92
June 20: KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 96 KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 93 KPBG: 94/1964 Forecast 92 KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 91 KSLK: 92/1995 Forecast 90
Record Low Temperatures:
June 16: KSLK: 32/2020 Forecast 33
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 19: KPBG: 70/1949 Forecast 69
June 20: KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 70 KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 64
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 121 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A gorgeous weekend is in store with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s and low humidity. This will be short-lived as a long-duration heat event moves in next week. Combined with high humidity, it will cause heat indexes to approach 100 degrees. Warm overnight lows will prevent any nighttime relief so heat related impacts will occur.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 121 PM EDT Saturday...Fair weather cumulus developed a little more in earnest than previously thought, but as progged by guidance the northern edge is beginning to decay as mid- level moisture continues to evaporate. As such, we should see these clouds gradually shift south and dissipate through the afternoon leading to clear skies this evening. Temps are running on track to top out in the low/mid 60s north to low 70s south.
For tonight into tomorrow, strong radiational cooling will drive temperatures into the 40s. Parts of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks are likely to fall down into the 30s. Saranac Lake is forecast to reach 33 at present, coming close to a daily record of 32 early Sunday morning. Some patchy frost has been applied, mostly in the northern Adirondacks. Sunday should be very pleasant with dry weather and light winds. High temperatures will generally be in the 70s.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...Dry conditions continue through Sunday night with heights aloft and cloud cover increasing. A weak trough will be approaching the North Country, but low level high pressure will be building northward at the same time. The result will be much warmer overnight temperatures with lows in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees for most spots. As the trough passes north in Canada Monday, a few showers will be possible, but 1000-500mb thickness will also be increasing. While we can't rule a very rare rumble of thunder in the early afternoon, the most notable conditions Monday will be surging high temperatures from around 80 degrees into the mid 80s. Warming temperatures aloft will likely cap convection late in the afternoon/evening.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...Models continue to favor an anomalously strong ridge to build over the region Tuesday through Thursday with high temperatures above 90 degrees. If the ECMWF has its way, temperatures could eclipse 100 degrees Wednesday. However, the consensus is marginally "cooler" in the mid/upper 90s. Coupled with dew points in the mid/upper 60s to almost 70 degrees, and WBGT will climb and conditions will "feel" around 100 degrees. This is notable for the region with Heat Risk in the Major/Extreme categories for most locations. Plan on dangerous heat next week. Some ways to mitigate these hazardous conditions include limiting outdoor activities, knowing where your local cooling centers will be - especially if you have no AC at home - and staying hydrated.
Overnight temperatures will not provide much relief for most locations with lows ranging in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.
Given the heat and higher dew points, showers and a few thunderstorms may occur. Relief from 90+ temperatures may come by the weekend, but temperatures will still be running warmer than seasonal averages.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period with VCFG possible at KMSS from 06-11Z.
Otherwise, fair weather cumulus across the area this afternoon around 5000 feet will dissipate through the afternoon with skies SKC through midnight, before high clouds begin to filter in from the west, becoming SCT-BKN after 12Z Sunday. Gusty NNW winds up to 25kts this afternoon rapidly abate towards 00Z to calm overnight, and variable less than 5kts Sunday.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
CLIMATE
Hot temperatures will result in values near records by the middle of next week. Below are some of the records under threat of being broken.
Record High Temperatures:
June 18: KBTV: 97/1994 Forecast 96 KMPV: 93/1994 Forecast 92 KPBG: 94/1994 Forecast 93 KMSS: 97/1994 Forecast 94 KSLK: 94/1907 Forecast 92
June 19: KBTV: 100/1995 Forecast 97 KMPV: 95/1995 Forecast 94 KPBG: 93/2001 Forecast 93 KMSS: 94/1955 Forecast 94 KSLK: 93/1994 Forecast 92
June 20: KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 96 KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 93 KPBG: 94/1964 Forecast 92 KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 91 KSLK: 92/1995 Forecast 90
Record Low Temperatures:
June 16: KSLK: 32/2020 Forecast 33
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 19: KPBG: 70/1949 Forecast 69
June 20: KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 70 KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 64
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
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Burlington, VT,
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