Sunrise 5:26 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 2:08 PM   Moonset 1:28 AM

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FXUS64 KOHX 151715 AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1215 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Upper level ridging has taken hold across the southeast United States today and the result will be the warmest temperatures we've seen so far this calendar year. Afternoon highs will reach into the mid and upper 90s today and tomorrow, however there is a slight difference between the two days. While the upper ridge will pretty much be overhead today, it will slip eastward overnight and this may very well open the door for some of us to see our first chance for rain in quite awhile tomorrow. It likely won't be everyone as we'll only be dealing with isolated to scattered afternoon/early evening storms, but those who do see storms will be dealing with brief heavy rainfall, lotsa lightning and potentially gusty winds -- as we usually do with summertime thunderstorms. If you have outdoor plans for Father's Day, plan ahead for the potential of an afternoon soaker. Similar conditions can be expected Monday afternoon and early evening, so if you miss out on Sunday rain, maybe you'll catch one on Monday, but with only 20-40% chances across Middle TN each day, there is the potential for continued manual watering of your garden.

The other thing to plan ahead for if you'll be outdoors tomorrow is the heat. With the ridge moving east of us tonight, this will also put Middle TN in a weak southerly flow. Dew points will increase tomorrow, so not only will we have the thunderstorms chances, Heat Index values will also creep into the triple digits for areas west of the Cumberland Plateau.

LONG TERM
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Models are fairly consistent across the board that rain chances will be extinguished on Tuesday and with general ridging across the region, afternoon highs are expected to remain in the low to mid 90s each day through the rest of the week. If it's summer you like, summer you shall have and while May was pretty wet, June is shaping up to be relatively dry. There isn't even anything in the Gulf of Mexico worth talking about just yet as far as any better rain chances here in the mid-state.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with light winds and mostly clear skies. Winds become southerly by early Sunday morning. Pop-up thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon, perhaps starting to develop before 18Z. However, confidence is not high enough to include mention of hit-and-miss thunderstorms at TAF sites at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Nashville 73 97 74 95 / 0 20 20 20 Clarksville 70 95 73 92 / 0 20 20 30 Crossville 67 89 69 87 / 0 40 20 30 Columbia 73 97 73 94 / 0 20 20 30 Cookeville 69 92 72 90 / 0 30 20 20 Jamestown 66 91 70 89 / 0 30 20 30 Lawrenceburg 73 95 72 92 / 0 20 20 20 Murfreesboro 73 97 73 95 / 0 20 20 20 Waverly 72 96 73 92 / 0 20 20 30

OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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