Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 3:05 PM   Moonset 2:46 AM

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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 242 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers until early morning, then showers likely late. Sunday - West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 6 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Sunday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: west 2 feet at 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday - North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southwest 2 feet at 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: northwest 2 feet at 6 seconds and north 1 foot at 2 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Tuesday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: northeast 1 foot at 2 seconds and southwest 1 foot at 7 seconds. Bay and inland waters light chop. Tuesday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. Wednesday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 242 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - Gusty sw winds this afternoon combined with persistent long period swells from the S gulf to keep seas elevated and choppy into Sunday. A frontal boundary will sag into the E gulf with scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms Sunday. Weak high pressure to build into the region with winds and seas slowly subsiding early to mid week.

FXUS62 KTBW 182346 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 746 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated for the next several hours before frontal boundary increases chances of showers and isolated storms early on Sunday. Models are not in great agreement in terms of timing, but most bring the aforementioned boundary across the peninsula through Sunday. A few CAMs bring a rounds of few showers ahead of the front around 09Z hence why a line was added to most terminals. Thereafter, uncertainty increases and it is difficult to pin point where exactly the showers will develop.
Going into the afternoon, and as the system gets closer chances for isolated thunderstorms increases, especially north of the I-4 corridor. This potential is now reflected on the TAFs. Overall, a challenging forecast, but conditions should improve through the evening hours as the boundary exits the area.

DISCUSSION
A shortwave trough continues to move through the S MS River Valley this afternoon with embedded vort maxes rotating around the base producing a series of MCSs along the N Gulf region ahead of a surface frontal boundary. Models bring this convection into the N FL Peninsula late this afternoon into tonight with some strong to severe storms possible mainly over the N Nature Coast. SW low level flow ahead of the front is also keeping the very warm and humid conditions over the area with fairly high heat index values.
Those trying to cool off at Gulf beaches should remain aware as strong rip currents with several rescues reported as long period swell energy is producing 2-3 ft breaking waves especially at SW facing beaches and the rip current statement remains in effect and may need to be extended into Sunday.

The front and upper support is expected to move through the E Gulf and FL Peninsula Sunday with much needed scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms through much of the day. SPC continues to indicate a marginal risk for strong to possibly severe storms ahead of and along the front.

The upper shortwave is expected to briefly stall in the W Atlantic with troughing back over the area for Monday and Tuesday. The front should be over S FL with weak high pressure building into N FL with diurnal seabreeze showers or storms mainly in the interior areas during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Upper ridging is expected to build back over the region from the SW Gulf around mid week while surface high pressure and a drier airmass hold through Fri with subsidence, warm temps and low rain chances.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 86 75 89 / 40 70 30 30 FMY 78 92 76 91 / 30 60 40 60 GIF 75 88 72 91 / 40 70 30 40 SRQ 77 88 75 90 / 30 70 30 30 BKV 71 87 68 90 / 60 70 20 30 SPG 79 86 78 88 / 40 70 30 30


TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

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Withlacoochee River entrance
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Sat -- 03:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:00 AM EDT     1.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:40 AM EDT     2.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:51 PM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Withlacoochee River entrance, Florida, Tide feet

Florida Power
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Sat -- 03:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:35 AM EDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:30 AM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:26 PM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Florida Power, Florida, Tide feet

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